happaping question from a trainers persepctive

[bdw0617]

Okay.. I'm torn.

I'm handicapping bay meadows fair for tomorrow and i'm on the 6th race. There is a filly in there that lost by literarly....an inch in a Starter Allowence.. same distance, same surface (turf) about 2 weeks ago.

Now she's in for a 22k tag. She would have been even money in another starter allowence, but she's in for a tag now?

I'm torn because well... is a starter allowence to a 22k claimer really a drop? Could the owners be saying you know... if someone wants her for 22k we will make a profit off of her and move on. But I don't see the logic in that if she is sound and will be odds on the next race

my delima is because, I have a horse in there i LOVE but this filly put a wrench in everything.. my filly is raising (slightly) in class and will be a bit of a price, this one is dropping.

thoughts?

[ageecee]

Depends on what kind of starter she was in before. Was it 10K or less or 5K or less and before the starters what kind of claiming races was she in?


Is it a drop depends i think on whats in the race and where she was running before.

[bdw0617]

she broke her maiden at 12.5 claiming level about 7 races back.

but even with that said..

however it doesn't matter because there is another mare in the race that if she runs her game will win for fun, so I"m out

[ageecee]

But what has she been running for after her maiden win

[bdw0617]

let's see

starter allowence
14k claim (3rd)
10k claim (2nd)
starter allowence (won)
30k claim (4th)
OC 25k (2nd)
allowence (4th)
starter allowence (loss by inch)

my GUT tells that something is amiss with this filly/mare. if not, why not go back and protect her at an OC 25k level, why drop down to 22k.. they might be freefall dropping her to see where she might land.

all in all... at least to me, it doesn't make sense (does it?), then the question is, even bad, is she good enough to win... which I don't think so

[ageecee]

She wins a starter race and finishes 2nd in the other starter race losing by an inch but yet she cant win for 10K or 14K claiming. So if she cnat win for 10K claiming then i would say she cant win for 22K claiming.



Do you have pp's for this race?

[zinn21]

BDW, there are so few horses up here right now you enter pretty much anything your horse fits in. Look at th PP's and try to determine if the horse fits class wise with the rest. If the horse does, don't be so concerned about the drop in for a tag. It probably has more to do with finding a race that will go then the horses condition.

[bdw0617]

She wins a starter race and finishes 2nd in the other starter race losing by an inch but yet she cant win for 10K or 14K claiming. So if she cnat win for 10K claiming then i would say she cant win for 22L claiming.



Do you have pp's for this race?

lol, going the wrong way

the starter allowence she lost by a nose was on the 30th of july


I don't use PP's.. I use racereplays

[Tucumcari]

Question might be... who trains her... THAT might be a huge part of the story

[bdw0617]

let's see...Hansen

had her the whole career

[ageecee]

I agree with zinn it might be a case of finding a race that will fill. If you have 5 horses in a race they will let it go and maybe that was the only race that would fill.

[Rokeby Forever]

Is there another Starter Handicap in the book? If not, maybe they're trying to unload her off a good race hoping someone else wants to wait out a Starter Handicap to come up?

[CA Michael]

Lots of trainers here tonight

[bdw0617]

good point.. anywhere I an find a condition book online? I mean don't get me wrong, I can handicap.. but something like this is a question I have always had.

[Tairaterces]

let's see...Hansen

had her the whole career

So she must be a Kjell Qvale mare . . . . . . . .