Blue Grass Stakes - G1: Past Performances

[Whirlaway]

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/markcasse_107287.pdf

Nice field, should be a good one.

A fellow poster by the name of pistol who lives in the Blue Grass State says he heard when the Keeneland surface "warmed up, things went faster. It's heading back down into the fifties in the extended forecast." It'll be interesting to see if Pyro has the deep stretch turn of foot on the all-weather surface.

[zinn21]

Well Pyro definately gets the acid test. Look who GoGo jumps on..And finally, what would Derby fever be without D Wayne Lukas trying to reach with one that has no shot??

[Whirlaway]

Cool Coal Man: Class fit, distance fit, good jock, good trainer, blistering works, good post, good running style, goes on the all weather first time; this guy should be tough. Kentucky Bear: Seems short on experience and hasn't raced in 48 days. Cowboy Cal: Class seem questionable, distance fit, good jock, good trainer, good last work, doesn't need the lead, goes from turf to all-weather but hasn't raced in 56 days. Stevil: Seems short on class. Monba: Seems short on class and hasn't raced in 48 days. Big Truck: Class fit, distance fit, good jock, good trainer, double blistering works at Keeneland, good running style, from the sand at TB to the all weather, he looks the winner. Pyro: Class fit, distance fit, good jock, good trainer, unremarkable works, good running style, goes on the all weather for the first time; false favorite. Stone Bird: Seems short on class. Medjool: Seems short on class but finds his surface. Miners Claim: Short on experience. Halo Najib: Class fit, distance fit, good jock, good trainer, good last work and likes the surface; might upset. Visionaire: Class fit, distance fit, Lezcano ?, good trainer, good works, good running style, goes on the all weather first time, wouldn't be surprised w/Michael Matz.

Big Truck and Barclay Tagg to win it.
Cool Coal Man a tough second.
Visionaire a closing third.

[oliverstoned]

put me down for Cowboy Cal

[halfbridled]

I like Cool Coal Man, Monba and Miner's Claim here. Would pay nicely at least LOL!
I can see Pyro being off the board here easily and doubt he will finish in front of Big Truck. Monba is interesting IMO due to his breeding and coming off a layoff (I believe he tore his hoof last start?) Cool Coal Man is my favorite short odds horse, he put in a solid effort last out and was closing nicely.

I think a few of these longer odds horses have a legit chance to hit the board. Miner's Claim has run on the synthetic and put up a good time - NTR at 1 mile 70 yards. Has the breeding to get speed and distance together with that A.P. Indy/Pleasant Tap cross. And I am a die hard Easy Goer broodmare fan, so Monba is getting a second chance here from me. Hoping for a big run, he's a nice looking colt.

[Sam]

Well, since I picked up Visionaire for my RTTR stable AFTER his last win (because I allowed someone to talk me out of him when I set it up) -- you may now exclude him from all your exotic wagers because he is sure to finish 5th or worse.

These are the horses you should avoid for this weekend's stakes as they will all be carrying the curse of being in my RTTR stable: Visionaire, Pyro, Web Gem, Z Fortune, Indian Sun.

[Ill-bred]

Exacta bomb box

Big Truck-Miner's Claim-Cowboy Cal

[Bill from WA]

I like the chances of Big Truck. Despite being sired by the very good sprinter Hook and Ladder, his pedigree is loaded with stamina influences. I even like him quite a bit for the Derby. Hope he flies under the radar because a lot of folks don't think he can get 10 furlongs. I, for one, believe he can.

[geowarrior]

Oooo Sam, Web Gem? So sorry.

Amazing the number of reasons people find not to like Pyro.

I personally am not a fan of blistering works, don't see why Big Truck is getting such attention. Atoned and War Pass didn't exactly hold up the form. Atoned was way back in the field and if we strike a line through War Pass/Big Truck TBD there is still the fact that the Tale of Ekati/WP/Court Vision 1/2/3 were all dead on their feet and the race was very slow.

Remember you want your horse to peak at the Derby but not be too peaky if you want him to have a legitimate shot at the triple crown. Bullet works in April don't mean beans when the Belmont comes around in June.

I have no idea if Pyro will like the Bluegrass Surface but I still like him as a good package for the Derby. However I need Miner's Claim to win for my main RTTR stable. I need King's Silver Son in the Arkansas Derby for my second stable, and then for a couple of my stables I need Tomcito in the Lexington. Then I need in any order those three to come first second and third in the Derby, which might just get me into the top 200 or so in that darn competition.

[halfbridled]

I really don't have anything in particular against the horse, but I think that he needs to step it up a notch. Fine, he's proven he can win without War Pass in the fray and he has beat a couple decent colts.

There are still some 3 year olds out there I see as very legit horses that stand a good shot of busting onto the scenes and a few are in the Blue Grass. If he beats this group he still has to get Colonel John, Big Brown and Tale of Ekati, the first two will be very tough to run down IMO.

[Whirlaway]

Amazing the number of reasons people find not to like Pyro.

http://www.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer
Check the link. I don't believe Pyro makes the Leader Board of: Horses, 3-year-olds: Male or Female. The data indicates a couple of fillies ran faster than Pyro this year.

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2008/2008_top_25.htm
Check the link. You'll find his TE is way down and his projected ten furlong turn time and ten furlong last quarter are almost a second slower in the Louisiana Derby when compared to the Risen Star Stakes.

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/markcasse_107287.pdf
Check the link. Compare the final times in his last two races. He is only one-fifth of a second faster, I believe that is one length. Since his last race he has had four works that seem to be maintenance works.

Pyro's last two races were visually impressive, but, in my opinion, not so impressive when you review the numbers. Nevertheless, Pyro was an elite two-year-old ranked fourth on the EFH, he is a Dual Qualifier and is most definitely a top Derby threat. I think his biggest weakness is the jockey. Of course he'll be running on the all weather surface come the Blue Grass Stakes, so It'll be interesting to see if he has the same late turn of foot he showed on the dirt.

~

I personally an not a fan of blistering works, don't see why Big Truck is getting such attention.

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_106678.pdf
Check the link and note the last works for Tale of Ekati. Almost ditto for Big Truck except that Tale of Ekati worked from the gate, therefore, according to the late great Tom Ainslie, the 47.2 is actually 46.2 and the 47.4 is actually 46.4. Of course you know trainers want their horse to run the last quarter as fast as possible and blistering works indicate that ability. Best or racing luck w/Miners Claim, King's Silver Son and Tomcito. Here is the latest word on Tomcito:

http://www.tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44528

[Stevie Belmont]

Im gonna makes some comments on two horses that are not mentioned on my Derby 12 that are running tomorrow.

Cowboy Cal and Gayego...Both of which could be on the list. Cowboy Cal has run some real big races on the grass. I think he will run a solid race tomorrow. And if he does I would think his hat would be thrown right in the Derby picture. No dirt ever for him. Will see how it all works out. The talent could very well be there.

Gayego is another that could really jump up and say hey..Im a contenda as well.

[bdw0617]

at even money pyro, from my recollection hasn't raced on polytrack yet, is a joke. no way in hell.


at 15 to 1 im' all over cowboy cal. He's the best mix of class/pedigree for surface and distance/talent/connections in the field.

[geowarrior]

Whirlaway, there is an element of slight jokingness about my choice of Kings Silver Son, Miner's Claim and Tomcito.

However they do all have pedigree considerations that warrant investigation. I would, however, prefer that Tomcito take the Lexington route rather than going straight to Churchill Downs even if he does have enough graded earnings to go straight to the race. I think he needs one more prep. But he is the only horse who has run and performed at distances comparable to the Derby. Miner's Claim and no experience? Same argument can be levelled at many on this same trail - he's certainly bred to get the distance and ran well in the Rushaway after a six month layoff. The Rushaway has sometimes been a key race in the prep. sequence. My biggest concern with him would be no dirt experience. As for King's Silver Son - he's another who should like the longer distances, and although he's been slow to mature he showed something in his last race that encouraged me. So a little tongue in cheek but not completely out to lunch. No Derby pick is completely out to lunch. However we should remember from another thread that a Derby win by King's Silver Son is the only one that will apparently drive our Pedigree Board colleague Ascot Knight to a life of crack consumption. Maybe a good reason to stay away from King's Silver Son.

In reality I would probably think that the greatest threats are probably Big Brown, Colonel John, Pyro (not necessarily in that order) but not Tale of Ekati (this would be the part where I'll end up with eggs benedict on my face). Cool Coal Man could add to that list depending on tomorrow's performance.

All three have question marks, though, Big Brown - experience, the dirt in the eye factor; Pyro - speed THIS year (has he slowed down as a three year old?); Colonel John - dirt.

Where Pyro is on three year old lists doesn't really bother me too much although I saw him at or near the top of a three-year old list in the April 5th edition of Bloodhorse (which I got yesterday - that magazine is so completely out of date when I get it it's worse than useless). And where anybody is on lists doesn't really help me much at this point, I'm scratching my head regardless, at this moment.

Here we all have to go our own ways, and may all our chosen favorites come back safe and sound.

[Lisann]

Will be nice to actually SEE Visionaire run a race. Bit foggy last time.

I like him and Pyro.