Dutrow picks post 20

Altanbarr · Postby **Altanbarr** » Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:56 pm

He thinks all Big Brown needs is a clean trip.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Wed Apr 30, 2008 3:24 pm

.. if he wants to run an extra furlong sure why not.

majxmom · Postby **majxmom** » Wed Apr 30, 2008 3:41 pm

I missed the live draw. What number pick was he? By that I mean, how many other choices did he have?

Maybe that just shows how much confidence Dutrow has in the horse. Man, I hope he doesn't his expectations get crushed.

Lucy · Postby **Lucy** » Wed Apr 30, 2008 6:43 pm

By the time he picked, he was left with the three to the far outside and the two on the rail. So not much choice, really.

horsenuts · Postby **horsenuts** » Wed Apr 30, 2008 10:53 pm

Well played. BB can be clear of trouble and will be laying up with the top flight of horses with a 1/4 mile run to the turn. His natural ability assures him of being right up front. Don't know if he'll win but he is by far the most talented runner in this year's Derby. He stands out like Point Given did in '01 and yet PG was soundly beaten in the Derby only to win the last two legs of the TC in dominate fashion.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Thu May 01, 2008 9:14 am

no horse in the last 25 years has ever won past the 18 post.

halfbridled · Postby **halfbridled** » Thu May 01, 2008 10:12 am

Noone's won from 20 since Clyde van Dusen.
I think it was a bad choice.
Posts 1 and 2 have won 21 times according to the Derby site, I'd take my chances there to be honest.

llbean · Postby **llbean** » Thu May 01, 2008 3:02 pm

halfbridled wrote:Noone's won from 20 since Clyde van Dusen.
I think it was a bad choice.
Posts 1 and 2 have won 21 times according to the Derby site, I'd take my chances there to be honest.

Interesting way to look at it; though given there's been far more Derbies with horses in Posts 1 and 2 compared to Derbies with horses in Posts 19 and 20, that could at least partly explain it.

How many horses have run in the Derby in Posts 1 and 2 vs. how many horses have run in the Derby in Posts 19 and 20?

-llbean

halfbridled · Postby **halfbridled** » Thu May 01, 2008 7:43 pm

16 Derbies with 20+ starters since 1915 - 1 has won from PP 20 out of 16 (6.25%)
7 with 19 starters - 0 have won from PP 19/ out of 23
4 with 18 starters - 1 has won from PP 18/out of 27 (3.7%)
9 with 17 starters - 0 has won from PP 17/out of 36
8 with 16 starters - 3 have won from PP 16/out of 44 (6.8%)
12 with 15 starters - 3 have won from PP 15/out of 56 (5.3%)
7 with 14 starters - 2 have won from PP 14 out of 63 (3.1%)
9 with 13 starters - 4 have won from PP 13 out of 72 (5.5%)
4 with 12 starters - 3 have won from PP 12 out of 76 (3.9%)
4 with 11 starters - 3 have won from PP 11 out of 80 ((3.7%)
5 with 10 starters - 10 have won from PP 10 out of 85 (11.7%)
4 with 9 starters - 4 have won from PP 9 out of 89 (10.1%)
93 with at least 8 starters - 59 have won from PP 8 out of 93 runnings (63.4%)
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Though the outside posts 12-20 have done OK in the last few years, the inner posts have a higher win percentage, even PP 1 with 11 wins out of 93 runnings is pretty amazing!
PP 2 has 9 wins in that time frame.
PP 3 has 5 wins
PP 4 has 6 wins
PP 5 has 9 wins
PP 6 has 3 wins
PP 7 has 7 wins
PP 8 has 9 wins
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So Dutrow took post 20 and I understand 1,2 were still open?
Post 20 has a 6% win rate when races have at least that many starters.
Posts 1-2 21% combined win percentage, 10.7% and 9.6% respectively.

These are the numbers I have on file that I calculated using the data from the KD website. Did not use 1900-1915 because it really skews posts 3-7 and there were not many starters.
I use them just as an aide for handicapping. Was happy as pie when CJ came up post 10!

Will see how that gamble holds up.

Soon enough we'll find out if BB is as good as that son of Man O War in 1929 (and there were 21 starters that year, not 20), but honestly I'd rather shoot for Ferdinand in 1986.

horsenuts · Postby **horsenuts** » Thu May 01, 2008 8:12 pm

halfbridled wrote:16 Derbies with 20+ starters since 1915 - 1 has won from PP 20 out of 16 (6.25%)
7 with 19 starters - 0 have won from PP 19/ out of 23
4 with 18 starters - 1 has won from PP 18/out of 27 (3.7%)
9 with 17 starters - 0 has won from PP 17/out of 36
8 with 16 starters - 3 have won from PP 16/out of 44 (6.8%)
12 with 15 starters - 3 have won from PP 15/out of 56 (5.3%)
7 with 14 starters - 2 have won from PP 14 out of 63 (3.1%)
9 with 13 starters - 4 have won from PP 13 out of 72 (5.5%)
4 with 12 starters - 3 have won from PP 12 out of 76 (3.9%)
4 with 11 starters - 3 have won from PP 11 out of 80 ((3.7%)
5 with 10 starters - 10 have won from PP 10 out of 85 (11.7%)
4 with 9 starters - 4 have won from PP 9 out of 89 (10.1%)
93 with at least 8 starters - 59 have won from PP 8 out of 93 runnings (63.4%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Though the outside posts 12-20 have done OK in the last few years, the inner posts have a higher win percentage, even PP 1 with 11 wins out of 93 runnings is pretty amazing!
PP 2 has 9 wins in that time frame.
PP 3 has 5 wins
PP 4 has 6 wins
PP 5 has 9 wins
PP 6 has 3 wins
PP 7 has 7 wins
PP 8 has 9 wins
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
So Dutrow took post 20 and I understand 1,2 were still open?
Post 20 has a 6% win rate when races have at least that many starters.
Posts 1-2 21% combined win percentage, 10.7% and 9.6% respectively.

These are the numbers I have on file that I calculated using the data from the KD website. Did not use 1900-1915 because it really skews posts 3-7 and there were not many starters.
I use them just as an aide for handicapping. Was happy as pie when CJ came up post 10!

Will see how that gamble holds up. Soon enough we'll find out if BB is as good as that son of Man O War in 1929 (and there were 21 starters that year, not 20), but honestly I'd rather shoot for Ferdinand in 1986.

Keep in mind BB jut did the impossible winning from post 12 at GP when most doubted he could as no one else had until he did it in easy fashion. We now know he likes the outside post as he showed in the FD. Would he like an inside post? That is the unknown and horses in the inside post can be left standing in the gate a long time with a 20 horse field which can lead to getting away a step slow which leads to being covered in an avalanche of kickback the likes of which shock most horses and cause many to become discouraged and quite. Curlin battled on for third but was obviously taken out of his game facing such a situation last year in the KD. Selecting the 20 post was the right decision.

halfbridled · Postby **halfbridled** » Sat May 03, 2008 11:48 am

well you learn something new everyday - it did not occur to me that in 1929 they still were walking up to the starting tape, and apparently Clyde's jock spent the time waiting moving him towards the middle of the pack before the break. So noone has won out of the 20 :shock:

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/2006/03/08/2006-03-08_the_name_game_off_and_running_print.html

I agree with you though Horsenuts, 20 may have been better for a horse like Big Brown who is a big inexperienced and might not take to all the jostling.

I just think to do it you have to be an exceptional horse - and this is going to be something else if he pulls it off, much more impressive than his 12 slot win.