the Gotham
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oliverstoned
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the Gotham
Some expert I forget which one had Haynesfield ranked #1 for the Derby before he turned into a pumpkin today (hope he's ok). Another expert said nobody in the Gotham had speed figures that came close to Mr Fantasy and then I want Revenge with his dirt loving pedigree gets on dirt finally and voila.
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bdw0617
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no one has mentioned it, but the "wonderhorse" this one for phil's didnt' hit hte board in the fountain of youth. goes to show how much I think of speed figures.
anyone who looked at haynesfield's count fleet and thought he was a Graded stakes horse let alone a derby horse is drinking some good scotch
anyone who looked at haynesfield's count fleet and thought he was a Graded stakes horse let alone a derby horse is drinking some good scotch
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
- Einstein
- Einstein
I don't know if it would have mattered because I Want Revenge was so good today, but Mr Fantasy was really washed out going into the gate and he still is missing the break. I dont know why he was so hot, there were alot of people in the paddock but it should not have bothered him that much. Tin Cup became a gelding for these tempermental reasons, but Mr Fantasy is, or atleast was easy to handle. But his aggresiveness really came out a bit to early today. I was actually surprised how well he did when I saw him in the post parade. Unfortunately I loved him up to that point and had already placed my bet.
Honest recap of the race by Jason Shandler at ThBloodhorse (blog)..
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/triplecr ... -dirt.aspx
I'm not happy that Garcia let Imp C. take 2nd. Anyone else?
Mr.Fantasy was a little spirited in the paddock yesterday and I saw Garcia smack him on the neck once, deservedly as he had his hands full. Still waiting to hear if the Wood is a go but all indications are that it is.
El Camino - with Haynesfield not firing Mr. F had nothing to run at...was this a lesson lost that would have served the colt well if Haynesfield had shot to the front?
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/triplecr ... -dirt.aspx
I'm not happy that Garcia let Imp C. take 2nd. Anyone else?
Mr.Fantasy was a little spirited in the paddock yesterday and I saw Garcia smack him on the neck once, deservedly as he had his hands full. Still waiting to hear if the Wood is a go but all indications are that it is.
El Camino - with Haynesfield not firing Mr. F had nothing to run at...was this a lesson lost that would have served the colt well if Haynesfield had shot to the front?
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Turn-To Fan
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Yes, Alan screwed up. In his defense Imperial Council was so far away it seemed he had second locked. He missed him. All he hed to do was urge him a couple times to get second. I think Mr Fantasy like his siblings is a front runner and will only sit off, just off, an extermely hot pace. I just hope is sound after that race. Like I have said before the derby is rarely won by runners with his style but I am more concerned with his pre-race antics. I think the trainer was right. Take out I want Revenge and he coasts home despite giving some away at the break and post parade. Great ride by Talamo sensing the pace and pressing. I would probably give the Wood a shot if I had him, he might be left alone on the front this time because it will be assumed he will fold. Gotta get the pre-race stuff fiqured out. I know how frustrating that is when they loose the race before they ever go in the gate.
Mr. Fantasy back on Derby Trail. Just posted on drf. Either of these races he could do well but I just am not sold on the Kentucky Derby for him.
http://www.drf.com/news/article/102142.html
Wood or Illinois Derby for Mr. Fantasy
Mr. Fantasy, third in the Gotham after setting the pace, will run next in either the Wood or the $500,000 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne the same day, said Terry Finley, president of West Point Thoroughbreds, which owns the colt.
Finley said Mr. Fantasy would "have to run one-two in one of those spots to warrant taking the next step."
Both Finley and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin were slightly disappointed Mr. Fantasy didn't fare better. However, he was making just his third start and first outside of New York-bred company. He was beaten a neck for second by Imperial Council.
http://www.drf.com/news/article/102142.html
Wood or Illinois Derby for Mr. Fantasy
Mr. Fantasy, third in the Gotham after setting the pace, will run next in either the Wood or the $500,000 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne the same day, said Terry Finley, president of West Point Thoroughbreds, which owns the colt.
Finley said Mr. Fantasy would "have to run one-two in one of those spots to warrant taking the next step."
Both Finley and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin were slightly disappointed Mr. Fantasy didn't fare better. However, he was making just his third start and first outside of New York-bred company. He was beaten a neck for second by Imperial Council.
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bdw0617
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I think Mr. Fantasy is better than that Gotham.
In that race, you had an anomonly. You had a bunch of sprinters, who knew they could not get the distance, or at least, knew they would have trouble getting the distance, so everyone slowed down, and STILL had nothing left in the tank, giving I want Revenge a walk in the park, and IMHO, making him look better than he is. He's good on dirt, very good, but I dont' buy that 113 beyer for 1 second.
I do think Mr. Fantasy had an excuse with the pre race antics, I have no doubt in my mind, none, that he should get the distance if he can rate a little. E Dubai and a half brother to a Gr 2 winner at 9F, the wood should not be a problem.
In that race, you had an anomonly. You had a bunch of sprinters, who knew they could not get the distance, or at least, knew they would have trouble getting the distance, so everyone slowed down, and STILL had nothing left in the tank, giving I want Revenge a walk in the park, and IMHO, making him look better than he is. He's good on dirt, very good, but I dont' buy that 113 beyer for 1 second.
I do think Mr. Fantasy had an excuse with the pre race antics, I have no doubt in my mind, none, that he should get the distance if he can rate a little. E Dubai and a half brother to a Gr 2 winner at 9F, the wood should not be a problem.
"When the solution is simple, God is answering.”
- Einstein
- Einstein
Copying thoughts from another poster on one possible condition contributing to how the Gotham played out. This from Steve Haskin's Bloodhorse blog. I also think the pre-race behaviors from Mr. Fantasy played a big part.
>>Mr. Fantasy's jockey ran a poor race. Following a week of horrendous weather (snow, ice, every day), the temperatures shot into the 60's for the Gotham. The track is banked and the race was run on the inner dirt track, shifting the moisture towards the rail. Garcia gunned Mr. F from post #5 to make the rail for the first turn and stayed on the rail for the entire race. By the time the runners turned for home, Mr. Fantasy was gassed from running in the deeper lane. As for I Want Revenge, he was on firmer footing for the key portions of the pace and began accelerating on the final turn. The acceleration became evident when the horses straightened out coming home. The exhausted Mr. Fantasy continued fighting forward on the soppy rail, while the fresher I Want Revenge cruised along outside of him; the beneficiary of a perfect trip.
>>That's why speed figures can be misleading. IWR, who had never run better than a 92, throws up a whopping 113. Bettors are hammering him at the futures window down to 10-1 now, without consideration to the extremely favorable conditions he encountered while posting that 113. What are the odds of him catching those conditions again? Next to nothing. To the astute handicapper, Mr. F's 98 Beyer running the entire race in quicksand (with a poor mount) was more impressive than IWR's 113 on a much harder surface.
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-ra ... uffle.aspx
>>Mr. Fantasy's jockey ran a poor race. Following a week of horrendous weather (snow, ice, every day), the temperatures shot into the 60's for the Gotham. The track is banked and the race was run on the inner dirt track, shifting the moisture towards the rail. Garcia gunned Mr. F from post #5 to make the rail for the first turn and stayed on the rail for the entire race. By the time the runners turned for home, Mr. Fantasy was gassed from running in the deeper lane. As for I Want Revenge, he was on firmer footing for the key portions of the pace and began accelerating on the final turn. The acceleration became evident when the horses straightened out coming home. The exhausted Mr. Fantasy continued fighting forward on the soppy rail, while the fresher I Want Revenge cruised along outside of him; the beneficiary of a perfect trip.
>>That's why speed figures can be misleading. IWR, who had never run better than a 92, throws up a whopping 113. Bettors are hammering him at the futures window down to 10-1 now, without consideration to the extremely favorable conditions he encountered while posting that 113. What are the odds of him catching those conditions again? Next to nothing. To the astute handicapper, Mr. F's 98 Beyer running the entire race in quicksand (with a poor mount) was more impressive than IWR's 113 on a much harder surface.
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-ra ... uffle.aspx
I want Revenge's beyer is suspect but it certainly was a triple fig. I thought it would be a 105-108. Mr Fantasy, I thought would get a 93-95. I think Mr Fantasy was at about 90% from getting worked up in the post parade. Plus he broke a length late as he has done every time. He ran a hell of a race all things considerd, which would have won most of the other preps.
I was initially critical of Garcia's ride but I think the horse took him to the front, I dont buy the "gunning" idea. I was then critical for him not keeping second, it seemed like he never saw Imperial Council. Looking at the head on shot though Mr fantasy drifted so maybe he was so leg weary or he felt something he just didn't want to urge him at all. The correct move if you have any doubt on a valuable horse, any horse!
It would be nearly impossible for I want Revenge to improve but I dont see a major bounce coming. I personally dont like all the travel they are doing with him, training on one coast, racing on another but some horses travel just doesn't bother.
I just think I want Revenge looks like one tough customer.
I was initially critical of Garcia's ride but I think the horse took him to the front, I dont buy the "gunning" idea. I was then critical for him not keeping second, it seemed like he never saw Imperial Council. Looking at the head on shot though Mr fantasy drifted so maybe he was so leg weary or he felt something he just didn't want to urge him at all. The correct move if you have any doubt on a valuable horse, any horse!
It would be nearly impossible for I want Revenge to improve but I dont see a major bounce coming. I personally dont like all the travel they are doing with him, training on one coast, racing on another but some horses travel just doesn't bother.
I just think I want Revenge looks like one tough customer.
Last edited by el camino on Mon Mar 23, 2009 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
It looks like the Illinois is coming up really weak so I'm surprised they don't just ship Mr. Fantasy there and just pluck the prize. Then again, the Wood is not a bad idea. I think it will tell them if he should be in the Derby or not. And that will be good to know ahead of time since he's such a young colt. If the Wood doesn't pan out for him then maybe the Preakness. I just want what is best for this colt and I'd also like to see him run strong at Saratoga and not be drained from a heavy TC campaign.