Well, we're two weeks from post and I don't think anyone has started a thread on predictions for The Derby.
I'm going with Friesan Fire, Pioneer of the Nile and Quality Road. Long Shots of General Quarters and Chocolate Candy. Maybe Dunkirk as well.
I predict the winner will have Fappiano in the pedigree somewhere.
Looking keenly forward to predictions from Bill and George.
Two weeks from post!!!!!
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Turn-To Fan
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Bill from WA
- Breeder's Cup Contender
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HORSE / SPEED AVG / GSV / S/I / SCORE / EARNINGS
Speed average is based on a formula using BRIS speed numbers. GSV's are George William Smith's Genetic Strength Value scores. S/I is a stamina index based on the Modern Conduit Mare profiles (the lower the number the better). Score is a compilation of all the factors. Earnings are Graded Stakes earnings. The horses are listed in the order of their compiled score.
1) FRIESAN FIRE (100) (76.99) (0.62) (3.88) $570,465)
2) CHOCOLATE CANDY (92) (74.32) (0.73) (3.22) ($370,000)
3) TAKE THE POINTS (93) (57.61) (0.67) (3.22) ($85,000)
4) DUNKIRK (99) (76.71) (0.87) (3.09) ($150,000)
5) I WANT REVENGE (112) (69.68) (0.98) (2.98) ($774,000)
6) MAFAAZ (91) (70.96) (0.85) (2.94) (WIN & IN)
7) JUST A COINCIDENCE (102) (73.00) (0.93) (2.90) $75,000
8) DESERT PARTY (88) (72.4) (0.82) (2.89) ($641,667)
9) SQUARE EDDIE (95) (78.87) (0.94) (2.85) ($804,981)
10) PIONEEROF THE NILE (95) (72.62) (0.98) (2.69) ($1,193,250)
11) QUALITY ROAD (103) (75.00) (0.98) (2.69) ($600,000)
12) PAPA CLEM (98) (71.63) (1.04) (2.63) ($760,000)
13) REGAL RANSOM (96) (72.62) (1.08) (2.56) ($1,250,000)
14) GENERAL QUARTERS (99) (70.46) (1.10) (2.54) ($595,645)
15) FLYING PRIVATE (96) (70.43) (1.08) (2.53) ($124,000)
16) HOLD ME BACK (99) (71.45) (1.20) (2.43) ($438,000)
17) WEST SIDE BERNIE (102) (68.85) (1.26) (2.43) ($385,160)
18) ADVICE (91) (58.84) (1.20) (2.38) ($206,845)
19) MR. HOT STUFF (91) (68.99) (1.14) (2.33) ($114,000)
20) WIN WILLIE (101) (67.70) (1.32) (2.32) ($230,000)
21) JOIN IN THE DANCE (96) (69.68) (1.20) (2.31) ($90,000)
22) SUMMER BIRD (96) (66.44) (1.23) (2.30) ($100,000)
23) MINE THAT BIRD (88) (70.46) (1.16) (2.27) ($138,705)
24) MUSKET MAN (100) (62.33) (1.49) (2.09) ($485,000)
Speed average is based on a formula using BRIS speed numbers. GSV's are George William Smith's Genetic Strength Value scores. S/I is a stamina index based on the Modern Conduit Mare profiles (the lower the number the better). Score is a compilation of all the factors. Earnings are Graded Stakes earnings. The horses are listed in the order of their compiled score.
1) FRIESAN FIRE (100) (76.99) (0.62) (3.88) $570,465)
2) CHOCOLATE CANDY (92) (74.32) (0.73) (3.22) ($370,000)
3) TAKE THE POINTS (93) (57.61) (0.67) (3.22) ($85,000)
4) DUNKIRK (99) (76.71) (0.87) (3.09) ($150,000)
5) I WANT REVENGE (112) (69.68) (0.98) (2.98) ($774,000)
6) MAFAAZ (91) (70.96) (0.85) (2.94) (WIN & IN)
7) JUST A COINCIDENCE (102) (73.00) (0.93) (2.90) $75,000
8) DESERT PARTY (88) (72.4) (0.82) (2.89) ($641,667)
9) SQUARE EDDIE (95) (78.87) (0.94) (2.85) ($804,981)
10) PIONEEROF THE NILE (95) (72.62) (0.98) (2.69) ($1,193,250)
11) QUALITY ROAD (103) (75.00) (0.98) (2.69) ($600,000)
12) PAPA CLEM (98) (71.63) (1.04) (2.63) ($760,000)
13) REGAL RANSOM (96) (72.62) (1.08) (2.56) ($1,250,000)
14) GENERAL QUARTERS (99) (70.46) (1.10) (2.54) ($595,645)
15) FLYING PRIVATE (96) (70.43) (1.08) (2.53) ($124,000)
16) HOLD ME BACK (99) (71.45) (1.20) (2.43) ($438,000)
17) WEST SIDE BERNIE (102) (68.85) (1.26) (2.43) ($385,160)
18) ADVICE (91) (58.84) (1.20) (2.38) ($206,845)
19) MR. HOT STUFF (91) (68.99) (1.14) (2.33) ($114,000)
20) WIN WILLIE (101) (67.70) (1.32) (2.32) ($230,000)
21) JOIN IN THE DANCE (96) (69.68) (1.20) (2.31) ($90,000)
22) SUMMER BIRD (96) (66.44) (1.23) (2.30) ($100,000)
23) MINE THAT BIRD (88) (70.46) (1.16) (2.27) ($138,705)
24) MUSKET MAN (100) (62.33) (1.49) (2.09) ($485,000)
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.
Langston Hughes
Langston Hughes
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oliverstoned
- Restricted Stakes Winner
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Huh, I came up with the same thing as Bill from Wa just looking at it old school. 1) Freisian Fire (AP Indy's gotta sire a Derby winner, right?) 2) Chocolate Candy, subject to change though as I have to see how they look in the post parade and how they all work up to the Derby. One thing for certain the superfecta and ahhh whats that thing called when you pick five....well they are gonna pay huuuuge. I may pick 10-12 out of hat any which way and play it.
Conventional / historical handicapping doesn’t seem to work anymore with the Derby …
Going back over the past 25 years (1984 through 2008), I see 433 Derby starters. Here’s the break down in year groups:
1) from 1984 thru 1993, total starters = 166
2) from 1994 through 2003, total starters = 169
3) from 2004 thru 2008, total starters = 98.
Looking at how many ‘high graded’ (Grade I and Grade II races) each entrant had:
From group 1 (10 years, 1984 to 1993)
0 or 1 Grade 1+2 starts, n = 62
2 or 3 Grade 1+2 starts, n = 57
4 or more Grade 1+2 starts, n = 47
From group 2 (10 years, 1994 to 2003)
0 or 1 Grade 1+2 starts, n = 52
2 or 3 Grade 1+2 starts, n = 73
4 or more Grade 1+2 starts, n = 44
From group 3 (5 years, since 2004)
0 or 1 Grade 1+2 starts, n = 26
2 or 3 Grade 1+2 starts, n = 52
4 or more Grade 1+2 starts, n = 20
Now, here’s where it really gets interesting. How many from each combination finished in the exacta?
From group 1 (10 years, 1984 to 1993)
0 or 1 Grade 1+2 starts number = 2 of the 62 (3%)
2 or 3 Grade 1+2 starts number = 8 of the 57 (14%)
4 or more Grade 1+2 starts number = 10 of the 47(21%)
From group 2 (10 years, 1994 to 2003)
0 or 1 Grade 1+2 starts number = 6 of the 52 (12%)
2 or 3 Grade 1+2 starts number = 9 of the 73 (12%)
4 or more Grade 1+2 starts number = 5 of the 44 (11%)
From group 3 (5 years, since 2004)
0 or 1 Grade 1+2 starts number = 6 of the 26 (23%)
2 or 3 Grade 1+2 starts number = 4 of the 52 (8%)
4 or more Grade 1+2 starts number = 0 of the 20 (0%)
In old school handicapping, I’d look at the class of horses by seeing how well they ran in high classes races, and “give extra credit” to those who were battle tested, with multiple good races in high class preps. Before 1994, those kinds of horses did the best in the Derby, with 21% of them finishing in the exacta. They comprised 28% of the field of runners, but 50% of those who finished 1-2.
In the next decade (1994 to 2003), things leveled out. The 4+ G1 or 2 group comprised 26% of the starters and 25% of the in-the-exacta finishers. They did their fair share.
The most recent five years, none of the runners with 4+ Grade I or II starts even hit the exacta. That’s 0 for 20. And these weren’t a bunch of hopeless longshots: half of them were Grade I winners, like The Cliff's Edge, Afleet Alex, Brother Derek, Scat Daddy, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Tale Of Ekati, etc.
As Todd Pletcher noted in his latest interview, the historical trends just aren’t holding up any longer. Horses do not have the foundation they used to. This data proves it. In the past, I would have leaned toward a horse with proven form at the highest levels, like Pioneerof The Nile (6 G1 or 2 starts). Nowadays, maybe someone like Dunkirk is a better proposition, with only 1 G1 start?
Going back over the past 25 years (1984 through 2008), I see 433 Derby starters. Here’s the break down in year groups:
1) from 1984 thru 1993, total starters = 166
2) from 1994 through 2003, total starters = 169
3) from 2004 thru 2008, total starters = 98.
Looking at how many ‘high graded’ (Grade I and Grade II races) each entrant had:
From group 1 (10 years, 1984 to 1993)
0 or 1 Grade 1+2 starts, n = 62
2 or 3 Grade 1+2 starts, n = 57
4 or more Grade 1+2 starts, n = 47
From group 2 (10 years, 1994 to 2003)
0 or 1 Grade 1+2 starts, n = 52
2 or 3 Grade 1+2 starts, n = 73
4 or more Grade 1+2 starts, n = 44
From group 3 (5 years, since 2004)
0 or 1 Grade 1+2 starts, n = 26
2 or 3 Grade 1+2 starts, n = 52
4 or more Grade 1+2 starts, n = 20
Now, here’s where it really gets interesting. How many from each combination finished in the exacta?
From group 1 (10 years, 1984 to 1993)
0 or 1 Grade 1+2 starts number = 2 of the 62 (3%)
2 or 3 Grade 1+2 starts number = 8 of the 57 (14%)
4 or more Grade 1+2 starts number = 10 of the 47(21%)
From group 2 (10 years, 1994 to 2003)
0 or 1 Grade 1+2 starts number = 6 of the 52 (12%)
2 or 3 Grade 1+2 starts number = 9 of the 73 (12%)
4 or more Grade 1+2 starts number = 5 of the 44 (11%)
From group 3 (5 years, since 2004)
0 or 1 Grade 1+2 starts number = 6 of the 26 (23%)
2 or 3 Grade 1+2 starts number = 4 of the 52 (8%)
4 or more Grade 1+2 starts number = 0 of the 20 (0%)
In old school handicapping, I’d look at the class of horses by seeing how well they ran in high classes races, and “give extra credit” to those who were battle tested, with multiple good races in high class preps. Before 1994, those kinds of horses did the best in the Derby, with 21% of them finishing in the exacta. They comprised 28% of the field of runners, but 50% of those who finished 1-2.
In the next decade (1994 to 2003), things leveled out. The 4+ G1 or 2 group comprised 26% of the starters and 25% of the in-the-exacta finishers. They did their fair share.
The most recent five years, none of the runners with 4+ Grade I or II starts even hit the exacta. That’s 0 for 20. And these weren’t a bunch of hopeless longshots: half of them were Grade I winners, like The Cliff's Edge, Afleet Alex, Brother Derek, Scat Daddy, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Tale Of Ekati, etc.
As Todd Pletcher noted in his latest interview, the historical trends just aren’t holding up any longer. Horses do not have the foundation they used to. This data proves it. In the past, I would have leaned toward a horse with proven form at the highest levels, like Pioneerof The Nile (6 G1 or 2 starts). Nowadays, maybe someone like Dunkirk is a better proposition, with only 1 G1 start?
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Bill from WA
- Breeder's Cup Contender
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Worksoplad
- Starters Handicap
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- Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:09 pm
- Location: Manhattan Beach, California
Derby
Summer Bird, Mine That Bird, Papa Clem, General Quarters, Win Willy, West Side Bernie. Not in that order of course, but definitely 3 of those will be in the top 5 
Just my prediction. I live in middle Tn, I have tried to make bets before, if anyone lives close enough or can have wine shipped to your state, I will bet a bottle of wine, (you will have to buy your own cheese) that POTN, who seems to be in everyone's, top picks, doesnt come in the top 5 or we can meet at the licqour barn in Lexington before the Ft yearling sale, July to settle up 
Just my prediction. I live in middle Tn, I have tried to make bets before, if anyone lives close enough or can have wine shipped to your state, I will bet a bottle of wine, (you will have to buy your own cheese) that POTN, who seems to be in everyone's, top picks, doesnt come in the top 5 or we can meet at the licqour barn in Lexington before the Ft yearling sale, July to settle up summer bird
walaa,
What is it about POTN that stimulates your prediction? What is it you like about Summer Bird?
What is it about POTN that stimulates your prediction? What is it you like about Summer Bird?
Derby
Nothing scientific or proven or anything like that, just too much hype. That usually doesnt bode well for any favorite or close to being favorite. I said USUALLY, people, dont go crazy on me Cant remember everything about my picks either, so I might be confusing them, but isnt he the one that has never run on "real" dirt, or just never run well on it? And personally, for no good reason, I dont like Empire Maker. I like Summer Bird for the big late run in the AD, another 1/8 th and he would have been the winner, in his only 3rd start. and for the past few years, horses with less starts are doing quite well, even though they arent suppose to. I just really like those 5 of the horses I know are running. I also havent picked the winner in about 10 years 
Cant remember everything about my picks either, so I might be confusing them, but isnt he the one that has never run on "real" dirt, or just never run well on it? And personally, for no good reason, I dont like Empire Maker. I like Summer Bird for the big late run in the AD, another 1/8 th and he would have been the winner, in his only 3rd start. and for the past few years, horses with less starts are doing quite well, even though they arent suppose to. I just really like those 5 of the horses I know are running. I also havent picked the winner in about 10 years 