Breeders Cup Turf Analysis

[bdw0617]

Okay, I am 100% a euro will win this race, it's just a matter of which one

the only american horse worth mentioning in this race is precious passion

so here we go

precious passion
condiuit
dar rae mi
red rocks
spanish moon

you know what. after watching the arc again.. this is a 2 horse race. condiuit is either going to win back to back turf's or af illy will win it in dar rae mi. they fhinished 4th and 5th to sea the stars, but a hard closnig 4th and 5th and they didn't lose by more than 2 and a half / 3 lengths. it was alot closer race than i though it would be.

they tower over the rest of this field. the only other possibility is precious passion gtting loose on the lead and giving the field the slip whcih is not out of the question.


Id' play this

Exacta Box Condiuit / Dar rae mi

[wangkw]

Dar Re MI has contributed to Sea The Stars glory in the Arc...with Frankie in the saddle..she should be one leg on grand stand
already...she in fact earned entry to BC fillies & mares turf having won the "win and you are in" G1 race in France...12f should
fit..esp strong rivals are all crowded into the prizy Classic.

Red Rocks has beaten Curin in 2008 Man O'War by 2 lengths..but was subsequently beaten 15&1/2 lengths (10th of 11) in the
year's BC Turf by Conduit..the next few races were all lousy. He is lightly raced this year but the tank is the problem.

Will Conduit follow High Chaparral, world champion, to score back to back ? King George winner has potential certainly..he
was 4th in the Arc...only 1/4 body length behind the 2nd finisher, Youmzain.

[geowarrior]

I think it has to be Conduit, even though the sentimental choice would be Presious Passion and I really liked his last race at Santa Anita.

I saw Conduit arriving at Santa Anita and he looks to be just as gorgeous as ever. There will be plenty of pace to run at, and even though he has only won once this year, his win was in an important Grade I race and his losses have come to very high quality horses. He ran a bang up race in the Arc, and the pace set by Presious Passion should ensure that he has something to close to.

Dar Re Mi is unquestionably a top quality filly, but Conduit just beat her by a length in the Arc.

I'd have no problem betting bdw's boxed exacta, but some might go further and go with the cold exacta Conduit/Dar Re Mi.

Incidentally, I'm very disappointed that Conduit is going to be standing at stud in Japan. That virtually ensures that we won't see any of his progeny racing here. I would have liked to see that combination of stamina and looks find it's way into the American gene pool.

[bdw0617]

I think it has to be Conduit, even though the sentimental choice would be Presious Passion and I really liked his last race at Santa Anita.

I saw Conduit arriving at Santa Anita and he looks to be just as gorgeous as ever. There will be plenty of pace to run at, and even though he has only won once this year, his win was in an important Grade I race and his losses have come to very high quality horses. He ran a bang up race in the Arc, and the pace set by Presious Passion should ensure that he has something to close to.

Dar Re Mi is unquestionably a top quality filly, but Conduit just beat her by a length in the Arc.

I'd have no problem betting bdw's boxed exacta, but some might go further and go with the cold exacta Conduit/Dar Re Mi.

Incidentally, I'm very disappointed that Conduit is going to be standing at stud in Japan. That virtually ensures that we won't see any of his progeny racing here. I would have liked to see that combination of stamina and looks find it's way into the American gene pool.

What i will actualy do is wait utnil I see the final odds, and which ever pays out more, bet a weighted box on the one that pays better. It hink they are about even in abality and I give the jockey edge to DRM. plus it's not like she got trounced by conduit last race.

i'm about making money and becuase I think they are about equal ability I will bet the one that pays more for more money but cover myself by betting the backend as well.

[wangkw]

If Conduit stands under the red sun..that could be Sunday Silence reborn..otherwise..the nightmare of
Ferninand still fresh in the memory ?

[Worksoplad]

If Conduit stands under the red sun..that could be Sunday Silence reborn..otherwise..the nightmare of
Ferninand still fresh in the memory ?

What on earth are you talking about?

[dublino]

If it rains, Dar Re Mi to beat Spanish Moon.
If not Conduit to beat Dar Re Mi.

[geowarrior]

I think wangkw is musing on whether Conduit is likely to be successful at stud in Japan, and is thinking of Sunday Silence as the prime example of that, or whether he is likely to be a failure, which would remind him/her of Ferdinand who was unsuccesful to the extent that he ended up at slaughter. As far as I can tell it was a musing without a conclusion.

[wangkw]

Yes..pal..thats my point...I am a him.

[bdw0617]

after watching todays races at sanita anita, I'm chaning this pick, t hey are going ot have to gun down a game precious passion on the lead.which given the way this track is playing, is not oging ot be easy to do, I don't care how good they are over there.

Win - Precious passion
Place - condiuit /Dar Rae Mi

[Mickey the Marcher]

after watching todays races at sanita anita, I'm chaning this pick, t hey are going ot have to gun down a game precious passion on the lead.which given the way this track is playing, is not oging ot be easy to do, I don't care how good they are over there.

Win - Precious passion
Place - condiuit /Dar Rae Mi

Except that PP won't get the big lead he has before, Spanish Moon will be sitting a few lengths off of him.

[bdw0617]

after watching todays races at sanita anita, I'm chaning this pick, t hey are going ot have to gun down a game precious passion on the lead.which given the way this track is playing, is not oging ot be easy to do, I don't care how good they are over there.

Win - Precious passion
Place - condiuit /Dar Rae Mi

Except that PP won't get the big lead he has before, Spanish Moon will be sitting a few lengths off of him.

I understand that.

I'm not so much saying he will give the field the slip as I am saying this race will not play like a euro style race which is a disadvantage to the euros.

they will be left with too much to do at the end of the race. it's not a wait wait wait run race that the euros run.

and the santa anita turf speedway isn't going to do the euros any favors either

[dublino]

The quicker the go and the more Conduit has to do at the end of the race the better, only way he gets beat is by a slow pace.

[Mickey the Marcher]

The quicker the go and the more Conduit has to do at the end of the race the better, only way he gets beat is by a slow pace.

Exactly, having PP in the race sets it up perfectly for Conduit.

PP has beat nothing of note all year, look at his races, he's been beating up on G3 horses like Proundinsky, Laura, Medici Code. The only time he races against quality animals was in the Million and while they claim he didn't like the soft ground he was way overmatched.
He sure looks visually impressive with that running style, but can't see him hanging on with this caliber field.

[bdw0617]

The quicker the go and the more Conduit has to do at the end of the race the better, only way he gets beat is by a slow pace.

Exactly, having PP in the race sets it up perfectly for Conduit.

PP has beat nothing of note all year, look at his races, he's been beating up on G3 horses like Proundinsky, Laura, Medici Code. The only time he races against quality animals was in the Million and while they claim he didn't like the soft ground he was way overmatched.
He sure looks visually impressive with that running style, but can't see him hanging on with this caliber field.

he broke a world record at monmouth. i dont' care who he was facing

and no he doesnt' like soft ground

a better case against him is the last race he was in, not the arlington million.