Zenyatta as False Favorite . . .

[Whirlaway]

I finally got to take a look at the Past Performances . . . we get a dirt surface this Breeder's Cup - that makes all the difference.

Sure is a nice horse that Zenyatta - but kinda likes to run on the synthetic; nice and soft, easy on the toes, kinda tires out those horses in front and she appears to love Jerry Brown's California. It is gonna be a different story this time; hard and fast surface that stings the toes; speed holds and she hasn't run nor worked out at CD - she is out of her element and she'll need everything shes got to get this group.


She is vulnerable; I bet against.

[Bast]

I finally got to take a look at the Past Performances . . . we get a dirt surface this Breeder's Cup - that makes all the difference.

Sure is a nice horse that Zenyatta - but kinda likes to run on the synthetic; nice and soft, easy on the toes, kinda tires out those horses in front and she appears to love Jerry Brown's California. It is gonna be a different story this time; hard and fast surface that stings the toes; speed holds and she hasn't run nor worked out at CD - she is out of her element and she'll need everything shes got to get this group.


She is vulnerable; I bet against.

I didn't think she'd win last year, but that race made me a believer.

She has run on dirt before, and been out on the Churchill track. They've said all along that they think she's better on dirt than the plastic and wax.

[madelyn]

In all of the races I have seen Zenyatta in, I have yet to see her "all out." In this kind of race, one of my very favorite bets would be to take an Exacta, with all in first and Zenyatta in second .. but I think that will be a loser in this particular race. Better to have Z in first and all in second... but it wouldn't pay much.

[ArchDandy]

It appeared to me she won by somewhat larger margins when racing on the dirt. I also can't bring myself not to say this, but if DIRT is hurting horse's hooves I have to wonder just how far we have drug the horse from nature's plan.

[Tucumcari]

A false favorite, no.
They have long said she is 10+ lengths bett on dirt than she is on plastic. Her biggest margin of victory have been on dirt. She ships well. She doesn't need to take her track with her. She is the real thing. She should be favorite.

[Toccet02]

I wonder, Madelyn, if this will be the race when she really has to fight. I bet she could pull out a Secretariat's Belmont performance if she felt she had to.

[onalimb]

I think she will win, but will go off at even money...

[DDT]

Whirlaway

While you were reading the past performances did you happen to notice that Zenyatta's win at a mile and a quarter was at least 2 full seconds faster than any of the horses running that distance entered in this years classic? Now I would be the first to admit that using final times is not the best measure when assessing past races, however, if she can come anywhere close to her final time last year on the rubber tire surface she will have no problem catching and passing all of the horses entered against her this year.

One thing with Zenyatta, she may not win the Classic but it will not be for a lack of trying. Her style of running could present a problem with traffic and/or the necessity of going wide, but Churchill's long stretch will help her overcome most of these anticipated problems and with any luck she should have a clear path to the wire.

I say bet against her at your own risk.

DDT

[wangkw]

Rather sad to say many here have their hands forced to bet against one which is so much loved...Her greatness is earned...not
handed...This November 6 Classic rekindles the spectre of 1996 World Cup...one great lady broke down around the home turn
and died on track...also supposed to be her last career race though...touch wood. On the hind side..I would rather bet against
Obama.

[kimberley mine]

Her style of running could present a problem with traffic and/or the necessity of going wide, but Churchill's long stretch will help her overcome most of these anticipated problems and with any luck she should have a clear path to the wire.

I would keep an eye on how Mike Smith rides other horses during the races, and see whether he's in a bold mood or a conservative mood. If he's had his wheaties for breakfast, she'll be okay.

[zinn21]

She beat a better field in the same race last year and she ran the table this year. She is the prohibitive favorite..

[tbrace]

Out there somewhere any loses, but not this time, nor this horse.

[Joltman]

Her style of running could present a problem with traffic and/or the necessity of going wide, but Churchill's long stretch will help her overcome most of these anticipated problems and with any luck she should have a clear path to the wire.

I would keep an eye on how Mike Smith rides other horses during the races, and see whether he's in a bold mood or a conservative mood. If he's had his wheaties for breakfast, she'll be okay.

The good news is that Churchill gives closers every opportunity IF, Smith does not move too soon. This is not SoCal. Everything is in his hands - my hope and prayer is that they all get around OK and she retires the champion that she is.

jm

[Joltman]

One other thought. Given that the tendency for jocks is to always pull the trigger to soon (hence all those Belmont defeats for Triple crown threats), I wonder if there is a deep closer who actually outkicks Z late - especially if she doesn't see him coming. Does Calvin have anything like that?

jm

[Whirlaway]

In the past decade how many Kentucky Derby hopefuls running on the synthetic surfaces have won the Kentucky Derby? How many Kentucky Derby hopefuls running on synthetic surfaces have posted faster Derby Prep times and Speed Figures when compared to horses running on dirt, only to run up the track on Derby Day? Even more complex and confounding is why horses that run on the plastic stuff do so poorly when they run on dirt. From what I understand running on a hard and fast surface stings the ankles and cannons and shocks the shoulders - horses not accustomed to running on hard and fast surfaces don't do well when the run on it first time all out . . . I doubt she is an exception.

Now mind you, this Zenyatta is a fine horse and she has achieved a level of Greatness in her own time. We don't see that often with this "Fashion Bred." However the racetrack surface is the key to her victories and will be the key to her demise - the surface in this race is her Achilles.