Interesting, but not surprising, don't you think, that the first two runners in the BC Juvenile ran their preps on dirt at Saratoga and Belmont and as a matter of fact, those runners that ran their preps on the synthetic ran up the track.
Since the inception of the Breeder's Cup, I believe only one winner of the BCJuvenile has gone on to win the Derby, I'm thinkin' that was Street Sense back in 2007. If my memory serves me correctly, the BCJuvenile that year was run at Churchill Downs (is there a pattern here?). It will be interesting to see what Uncle Mo has for them come the first Saturday in May 2011. NO doubt Mo' will be training up to the Derby on dirt and as history has shown, any horse running Derby preps on the synthetic don't stand a chance.
Uncle Mo' and the Kentucky Derby
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Whirlaway
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Uncle Mo' and the Kentucky Derby
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Whirlaway wrote:Will Uncle Mo' come to Santa Anita?
Hi Whirl,
Most definitely not....Mo is soon to be in route and will train at Palm Meadows in Boynton Beach, Florida. It's where Barbaro, Big Brown, Street Sense, Funny Cide and Super Saver have trained and is fast becoming the place to prep your derby hopeful.....the horses are beginning to head south now as the stable area opened today. The owner wants to go the old route via the Wood Memorial, but that only gives Todd 4 weeks till the Derby...he likes the Tampa Bay Derby route and usually prefers 5 or 6 weeks between his races......but it will be interesting to see if Pletcher goes along with his owner.....and may as Eskendereya went that route. TJ
Last edited by TJ on Thu Nov 11, 2010 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
When first looked at the 1 for 26 record of BC Junv winners coming back to win the Derby as three year olds is pretty poor, but, if you understand that 12 of the BC Junv winners never started in the Derby, then it is reduced to 1 for 14, still poor as a handicapping tool. The Churchill Downs angle is much better but it has the drawback of limited data. There have been 6 opportunities to date that won the BC Junv at Churchill, seven if you include Uncle Mo, but then he must wait until next year to run in the Derby, so we can't count him just yet. So, we have 6 and out of these only 3 returned to run in the Derby with one winner, one third and one out of the money.
So yes, it does appear that a BC Junv winner at Churchill is a good bet if he/she returns to Churchill for the Derby, but, history has also shown that horses with experience over the Churchill strip do much better in the Derby than horses with little or no experience over the track, as it is with most tracks, but it seems to be just a bit more important at Churchill.
Uncle Mo completed the first part, now let's hope he can stay healthy and try for that Churchill double on the first Saturday in May, 2011.
DDT
So yes, it does appear that a BC Junv winner at Churchill is a good bet if he/she returns to Churchill for the Derby, but, history has also shown that horses with experience over the Churchill strip do much better in the Derby than horses with little or no experience over the track, as it is with most tracks, but it seems to be just a bit more important at Churchill.
Uncle Mo completed the first part, now let's hope he can stay healthy and try for that Churchill double on the first Saturday in May, 2011.
DDT
I wish that the BC Juvenile was run at 1 1/8 miles instead of 1 1/16 miles. What purpose is served by yet another 2 y o stake at this distance? Not much. The longer distance would give the race more relevance to what the 3 y o will be doing--look up the history of the horses who finish well in the Remsen Stakes, run at 1 1/8 miles. 
Uncle Mo will ship to Palm Meadows after a brief freshening at J.J. Crupi's Farm in Ocala. Looks like Pletcher will listen to his owner and have one race in Florida and his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial.....the Wood was also Secretariat's last race before the Kentucky Derby. TJ
http://www.drf.com/news/uncle-mo-get-month-farm
http://www.drf.com/news/uncle-mo-get-month-farm
Re: Uncle Mo' and the Kentucky Derby
Whirlaway wrote: I'm thinkin' that was Street Sense back in 2007. If my memory serves me correctly, the BCJuvenile that year was run at Churchill Downs (is there a pattern here?).
Reality check: Arazi.
Re: Uncle Mo' and the Kentucky Derby
Bast wrote:Whirlaway wrote: I'm thinkin' that was Street Sense back in 2007. If my memory serves me correctly, the BCJuvenile that year was run at Churchill Downs (is there a pattern here?).
Reality check: Arazi.
i believe "whirlaway" was correct....ARAZI did loom boldly in the derby ...but he did not WIN it..........
...STREET SENSE did.A great man cannot help himself," "He can see things that other men cannot see themselves, and his greatness lies in doing whatever is necessary to make his vision real
Re: Uncle Mo' and the Kentucky Derby
reenci wrote:Bast wrote:Whirlaway wrote: I'm thinkin' that was Street Sense back in 2007. If my memory serves me correctly, the BCJuvenile that year was run at Churchill Downs (is there a pattern here?).
Reality check: Arazi.
i believe "whirlaway" was correct....ARAZI did loom boldly in the derby ...but he did not WIN it..........
Arazi won the Juvenile at Churchill. Winning the Juvenile at Churchill does not mean winning the Derby a few months later. Some people don't have memories extending as far back as Arazi.
what whirlaway wrote was "Since the inception of the Breeder's Cup, I believe only one winner of the BCJuvenile has gone on to win the Derby, I'm thinkin' that was Street Sense back in 2007. If my memory serves me correctly, the BCJuvenile that year was run at Churchill Downs (is there a pattern here?). It will be interesting to see what Uncle Mo has for them come the first Saturday in May 2011. NO doubt Mo' will be training up to the Derby on dirt and as history has shown, any horse running Derby preps on the synthetic don't stand a chance."
"Since the inception of the Breeder's Cup, I believe only one winner of the BCJuvenile has gone on to win the Derby, I'm thinkin' that was Street Sense back in 2007. If my memory serves ...arazi did not win the derby....your missing the point.
street sense is the last horse to win the BCJUV and then THE DERBY....thats the point made.
"Since the inception of the Breeder's Cup, I believe only one winner of the BCJuvenile has gone on to win the Derby, I'm thinkin' that was Street Sense back in 2007. If my memory serves ...arazi did not win the derby....your missing the point.
street sense is the last horse to win the BCJUV and then THE DERBY....thats the point made.A great man cannot help himself," "He can see things that other men cannot see themselves, and his greatness lies in doing whatever is necessary to make his vision real
reenci wrote:what whirlaway wrote was "Since the inception of the Breeder's Cup, I believe only one winner of the BCJuvenile has gone on to win the Derby, I'm thinkin' that was Street Sense back in 2007. If my memory serves me correctly, the BCJuvenile that year was run at Churchill Downs (is there a pattern here?).
"Since the inception of the Breeder's Cup, I believe only one winner of the BCJuvenile has gone on to win the Derby, I'm thinkin' that was Street Sense back in 2007. If my memory serves ...arazi did not win the derby....your missing the point.
The implication of "(is there a pattern here?)" questions whether there is indeed a linkage between winning the BCJuv at Churchill and winning the Kentucky Derby.