Uncle Mo', Pace Parameters and the Triple Crown

[Whirlaway]

Absolutely critical to compare the numbers associated with each runner in each Derby prep. Those numbers can be found here: http://www.chef-de-race.com/pace_parameters/2011_derby_pace_parameters.htm. The spread sheet has become user friendly by just clicking the column head - click the 10F and you'll see what I mean. You can refresh to get back to the original format.

That damn Uncle Mo. He ran the Timely Writer in a breeze and is near if not at the top in the most important categories: 3FR - Click the column head, scroll down, he is traveling almost 58 fps, no one even comes close; TE - he is the mostest hoss' w/the greatest amount of energy, no one even comes close; %E - a relative measure of energy used through the second call, he used very little and ranks right at the top; 10F - ranks sixth, if you toss out four unlikelies, he ranks second; 10FTT - ranked second; 10FLQ - ranked second.

He does have an Achilles Heel, a soft underbelly . . . his Performance Figure is -32, it needs to be at, I believe, PF -50 to make the cut. At this point I would say he lacks, what Carl Nafzger termed, "deep conditioning." It will be interesting to see if he will make the PF cut come his next race.

I've had the pleasure of eating the humble pie coupled with a side of crow on more than one occasion, but this hoss', judging by the pace parameters, appears to be a Triple Crown threat! I'll be keeping a keen eye on his works and where he will be running next. If he can stay well, win his next prep, get by the herd in the Derby, he has a good a shot at the Triple Crown as I've seen since Smarty Jones . . . if he can just get past Soldat!

Looking forward to the The Belmont Stakes.

[TJ]

Hi Whirl,
That PF was given to Uncle Mo was from a non graded race which you know is not the norm......such non graded races never carry big numbers. All PF's are from graded stake races only. I guess because he is a Derby contender they bend the rules. Let me remind you that Uncle Mo recieved one of the highest....if not the highest PF any 2 YO ever recieved winning the BC Juvenile around two turns. That number as a 2YO is well above any 3YO's number's so far this year including Fort Hughe's monster number sprinting. TJ

[Whirlaway]

TJ,

I believe you are correct, PFs are provided for graded stakes races only. However, the Pace Parameters for the Kentucky Derby Prep races have been posted for the past several years and providing the Performance Figure for each Derby Prep has been normal. The Jimmy Winkfield and the Miracle Wood, neither a Graded, both carry big numbers.

Yes, Uncle Mo received the highest PF for any two-year-old winning the BC Juvenile at PF -86, but war Pass was close with a PF-84. Uncle Mo's PF -86 indeed is higher than the PF -83 posted by Fort Hughes in the Jimmy Winfield, I don't know if it is "well above."

Nevertheless, the PF -32 for Uncle Mo' in the Timely Writer is low when compared to some of the other Derby contenders - I think he is dead on otherwise. I'm not overly concerned about his PF at this time, considering he still has some eight weeks to make the cut off. However, what the number does indicate is what some have contended all along, he has a soft underbelly and at this point in time is vulnerable to those in better condition.

Once again, I will be keenly watching his works in the next several weeks and looking forward to whether he will run in the Wood or run in the Florida Derby . . . against Soldat! I think he'll dodge the Soldier, just like everyone else.

[TJ]

TJ,

I believe you are correct, PFs are provided for graded stakes races only. However, the Pace Parameters for the Kentucky Derby Prep races have been posted for the past several years and providing the Performance Figure for each Derby Prep has been normal. The Jimmy Winkfield and the Miracle Wood, neither a Graded, both carry big numbers.

Yes, Uncle Mo received the highest PF for any two-year-old winning the BC Juvenile at PF -86, but war Pass was close with a PF-84. Uncle Mo's PF -86 indeed is higher than the PF -83 posted by Fort Hughes in the Jimmy Winfield, I don't know if it is "well above."

Nevertheless, the PF -32 for Uncle Mo' in the Timely Writer is low when compared to some of the other Derby contenders - I think he is dead on otherwise. I'm not overly concerned about his PF at this time, considering he still has some eight weeks to make the cut off. However, what the number does indicate is what some have contended all along, he has a soft underbelly and at this point in time is vulnerable to those in better condition.

Once again, I will be keenly watching his works in the next several weeks and looking forward to whether he will run in the Wood or run in the Florida Derby . . . against Soldat! I think he'll dodge the Soldier, just like everyone else.

Hi Whirl,
If you consider Uncle Mo's PF was as a 2YO going a two turn race compared to a one turn sprint for the ill-fated 3YO Fort Hughes....it's well above in my book. I've been a fan of dosage for a long time and everything Doc Roman's has on there I've been looking at for years. I went a step further and researched the reason's why some horses have proved his system to be worthless and that's just not the case.
As far as Uncle Mo being soft, once again that's in the eye and minds of those who think they know something about Uncle Mo that Pletcher doesn't. If you were at Gulfstream and watched him gallop out and timed him as I did, you wouldn't think he's soft but way ahead of schedule. My concern is that he peaks too soon at this point. He galloped out a 1 and an 1/8th miles faster than any horse has raced the entire distance at GP.....and he pulled up the 1 1/4 distance fast enough to win many Kentucky Derby's. TJ

[Whirlaway]

TJ,

When I first read how fast you timed Mo' I checked the parameters - the parameters verified your field observations and your field observations verified the parameters. In the years that I have followed the parameters, your field verification is the first. I accept what you have seen as true and verified. The perplexing question is how could Mo' run so well and only score a PF -32? The PF formula is proprietary, so only Dr. Roman could answer that question. I can provide a quote and link that may shed some light on the low figure.

The figures are based on a combination of fractional and final times converted into a single number. They represent performance integrated over the entire race. In that sense, they differ from conventional speed figures which rely only on the final time. For this methodology, the entire pace line of a race is converted to a performance figure, and it is compared to the number for the class-par pace line or, occasionally, a projected pace line. All pars are adjusted for age, distance, sex, and time of year. Variants are then calculated in the normal way.

Here is the link: http://www.chef-de-race.com/pfs/performance_figures.htm. It will be interesting to see the Beyer Speed Figures.

As it stands right now, I accept the PF-32. I'm no trainer but the PF -32 indicates to me that Mo' is right where he needs to be. PF -32 in the Writer, PF -55/60 in his next and he is dead set for the Derby with fresh legs for the Triple Crown. I think the work Pletcher is doing thus far is cautious/exemplary. No doubt he knows this horse is the One. Of course, I thought the same thing about Eskenderya. If he can just keep him safe and sound, I think he has a good a shot as I've seen since Smarty Jones. AS they say in Spanish: Estoy contigo. I am with you . . . I also have great hopes for Uncle Mo', but he first must beat Soldat!

It will be interesting to see his next PF.

[TJ]

TJ,

When I first read how fast you timed Mo' I checked the parameters - the parameters verified your field observations and your field observations verified the parameters. In the years that I have followed the parameters, your field verification is the first. I accept what you have seen as true and verified. The perplexing question is how could Mo' run so well and only score a PF -32? The PF formula is proprietary, so only Dr. Roman could answer that question. I can provide a quote and link that may shed some light on the low figure.

The figures are based on a combination of fractional and final times converted into a single number. They represent performance integrated over the entire race. In that sense, they differ from conventional speed figures which rely only on the final time. For this methodology, the entire pace line of a race is converted to a performance figure, and it is compared to the number for the class-par pace line or, occasionally, a projected pace line. All pars are adjusted for age, distance, sex, and time of year. Variants are then calculated in the normal way.

Here is the link: http://www.chef-de-race.com/pfs/performance_figures.htm. It will be interesting to see the Beyer Speed Figures.

As it stands right now, I accept the PF-32. I'm no trainer but the PF -32 indicates to me that Mo' is right where he needs to be. PF -32 in the Writer, PF -55/60 in his next and he is dead set for the Derby with fresh legs for the Triple Crown. I think the work Pletcher is doing thus far is cautious/exemplary. No doubt he knows this horse is the One. Of course, I thought the same thing about Eskenderya. If he can just keep him safe and sound, I think he has a good a shot as I've seen since Smarty Jones. AS they say in Spanish: Estoy contigo. I am with you . . . I also have great hopes for Uncle Mo', but he first must beat Soldat!

It will be interesting to see his next PF.

Hi Whirl,
Mo's beyer was only an 89 as compared to Tackleberry's 103 for the same distance a couple races apart. Tackleberry also recieved a much higher PF as well, an 82. Uncle Mo won handily....he could have run much faster, but due to the race shape it didn't happen, not to mention it wasn't supposed to happen, he did only what he was asked to do out there. He ran and won the race in the last 1/4 mile in 22.4....that's why he galloped out so strong as he was never turned loose till the 1/4 pole....at which point he exploded. As I've mentioned to you before....it is the gallop out that anwer's the fitness question and he galloped out very strong.....if they had a clock on his gallop out and put a PF or beyer figure to his 1 1/8th time it would have been quite a bit higher. This was by design to turn his easy win into a stamina building public workout. I think the race was under rated by both Roman's and Andy Beyer.....it wouldn't be the first time. TJ

[Whirlaway]

TJ,

It was a slow race and his performance was sub par and I think I found out one of the reasons why. Take a look at the article found under this link and take read at what Johnny V had to say. Here is the link: http://www.racingandsports.com.au/international/rsNewsArt.asp?NID=203413&story=US:_Uncle_Mo_Starts_Down_The_Derby_Trail. Said he wanted to get out front and slow the race down as much as possible. Kinda like what the jock for Soldat did in the Fountain of Youth. The numbers don't tell us everything, just most everything.

Kinda cool . . . the plot gets thicker and thicker and the human drama is getting deeper and deeper.

[bdw0617]

TJ,

It was a slow race and his performance was sub par and I think I found out one of the reasons why. Take a look at the article found under this link and take read at what Johnny V had to say. Here is the link: http://www.racingandsports.com.au/international/rsNewsArt.asp?NID=203413&story=US:_Uncle_Mo_Starts_Down_The_Derby_Trail. Said he wanted to get out front and slow the race down as much as possible. Kinda like what the jock for Soldat did in the Fountain of Youth. The numbers don't tell us everything, just most everything.

Kinda cool . . . the plot gets thicker and thicker and the human drama is getting deeper and deeper.

lol I'm starting to grow on you lol. Mo might be the most pure talented horse in the group I believe that, but I am not even considering him as a legit option in the derby off this schedule. if he beats me he will prove to be a true superhorse with this ultra soft campaign he is doing leading up to it. Talent alone is not the only thing needed to win the derby. This derby IMHO is one of the easiest to handicap that I can remember to me. When you think of it in these simple terms, find me a horse that can run 10F and possibly, honestly, break a 100 BSF.. that list, might be 3 names long; sway away, mo, Premier P "(though he only got a 96 yesterday I think he ran better than that) lol, seriously who else lol? sway away imho is such a standout it's not even funny. he's fast and will go 2 turns, versus a bunch of fast horses who will only go 1 turn


this week will tell you a lot. if garrett gomez shows up to hot springs to ride sway away, you can take it to the bank. when he came in 2nd last time after the race he looked like he just won a breedrs cup race he was so happy.

[TJ]

TJ,

It was a slow race and his performance was sub par and I think I found out one of the reasons why. Take a look at the article found under this link and take read at what Johnny V had to say. Here is the link: http://www.racingandsports.com.au/international/rsNewsArt.asp?NID=203413&story=US:_Uncle_Mo_Starts_Down_The_Derby_Trail. Said he wanted to get out front and slow the race down as much as possible. Kinda like what the jock for Soldat did in the Fountain of Youth. The numbers don't tell us everything, just most everything.

Kinda cool . . . the plot gets thicker and thicker and the human drama is getting deeper and deeper.

Hi Whirl,
The article sounds just like what I saw and said and I don't need JV to confirm what he did on board, Ray Charles could see that. He didn't let him run till inside the 1/4 pole. I knew they would be letting him gallop out strong...so I was there to see it and know for myself what was going on, as I will be in attendance at this years Derby. The gallop out was extremely strong because JV only let him run the last 1/4 mile.....in so doing you can't just pull him up quicky past the wire once his (MO)mentum got started through the lane. His strong 1/8th of a mile gallop out has him ready right now for the best 3YO's around.....which worries me he may peak in the Wood and may not be as good as he should be come his TC campaign. Add that to the fact we are all waiting for Mo to step on his pedigree, but I have a funny feeling MO will be the exception for Indian Charlie.

[Whirlaway]

In both the Fountain of Youth and the Timely Writer the jockeys got out front and throttled back. Knowing they throttled back, how can you rely solely on the BSFs?

From what I've read you like you some Sway Away. He is a nice horse . . . Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like he ran once as a two-year-old. It begs the question, how many Derby winners . . . Of course that is only one handicapping factor. If Sway Away smokes em' in the Rebel we'll get to review his pace parameters. I'll take those numbers into consideration along with other factors.

In the case of Mo and the pace parameters they give us not only the PF but also the 3F, %E, 10FTT and 10FLQ. Take a look at the CC for ride efficiency, and take a look at Mo's slope. This horse is nothing short of a beast. He only needs the deep conditioning and watch out when they unleash him. Will he get the deep conditioning, we will know it when we see it, as even a blind man can tell when he's walkin' in the sun.

What I find particularly intriguing is none of the top horses want to run in the Florida Derby. Will Dialed In and Uncle Mo' also dodge the Soldier?

[George William Smith]

Watching Uncle Mo in his prep was like watching paint dry. He could have worked that fast in the morning and not even turned a hair. In my day they used to let the good horses work between races. That was more exciting.
George William Smith
originator of the GSV/GSV and GRASP scores
http://www.members.shaw.ca/thematchmaker

[bdw0617]

In both the Fountain of Youth and the Timely Writer the jockeys got out front and throttled back. Knowing they throttled back, how can you rely solely on the BSFs?

From what I've read you like you some Sway Away. He is a nice horse . . . Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like he ran once as a two-year-old. It begs the question, how many Derby winners . . . Of course that is only one handicapping factor. If Sway Away smokes em' in the Rebel we'll get to review his pace parameters. I'll take those numbers into consideration along with other factors.

In the case of Mo and the pace parameters they give us not only the PF but also the 3F, %E, 10FTT and 10FLQ. Take a look at the CC for ride efficiency, and take a look at Mo's slope. This horse is nothing short of a beast. He only needs the deep conditioning and watch out when they unleash him. Will he get the deep conditioning, we will know it when we see it, as even a blind man can tell when he's walking' in the sun.

What I find particularly intriguing is none of the top horses want to run in the Florida Derby. Will Dialed In and Uncle Mo' also dodge the Soldier?

he ran twice. once at pleasnston and he ran into J P's gusto in the del mar futurity in which he finished 2nd, just got outkicked going 7F. No shame in finishing 2nd to JPG going 7F. His 2 loses, he has hooked two of the best 1 turn 3YO's in the country, one a grade 1 winner. as far as overall starts, assuming he has 2 preps, he will have had 5 starts before the derby, same as mo. Also, he is the only horse I know, whose BSF's have improved every race. high 80's first start, low 90's second start, 101 third start.

In both the Fountain of Youth and the Timely Writer the jockeys got out front and throttled back. Knowing they throttled back, how can you rely solely on the BSFs?

Just projecting. Solddat was held back but so was everyone else. he runs best on the lead I don't care what KM says otherwise, in a race with pace he is going to have to actually run to get the lead, the FOY an optimal pace scenario, he got to sit on the lead, and was being stocked by a horse that had no punch. I don't see a situation where SD can run real splits, and still finish like he did. I don't see a scenario in other words, where he is fast enough to win the derby.

Mo on the other hand, I think IS fast enough to win the derby but I don't think he will have enough experience to win the derby. My derby picks need to have been in some dog fights unless they are just leaps and bounds better than the field (big brown). mo while talented, is not leaps and bounds better than sway away, solddat and others. I think mo is going to be hell in the Preakness however. you heard it here first. once he does get that experience, it's a wrap for the rest of the 3YO's. Think Curlin / Point Given.

What I find particularly intriguing is none of the top horses want to run in the Florida Derby. Will Dialed In and Uncle Mo' also dodge the Soldier?

AS I have been harping, the florida derby has not been kind to triple crown horses. They do something to the track on that day it just messes horses all up for the future. Dunkirk's florida derby is the last time I think you will see todd's top 3YO in the Florida derby. That was teh first time I ever saw him actually pissed off and he had a right to be. He had no realistic chance to close against QR on that type of track, and the track basically ruined every horse in the race. Theregoesjojo, quality road was out of the derby and dunkirk was a shell of himself after the race.

[TJ]

What I find particularly intriguing is none of the top horses want to run in the Florida Derby. Will Dialed In and Uncle Mo' also dodge the Soldier?

Hi Whirl,
Uncle Mo's schedule has been made public by his owner a long time ago. The Wood Memorial is supposed to be his next race.....but Pletcher wants to run in the Florida Derby. He's trying to convince Repole to flip-flop and run Stay Thirsty in the Wood and Uncle Mo in the Florida Derby. It will be interesting to see if Repole allows Pletcher's better judgement to prevail or will he stick to his guns and run in the Wood. Trust me when I tell you this, Pletcher isn't afraid to run against Soldat....he's not afraid to run against anyone with this horse. The way he galloped out after the Timely Writer convinced him he's as good as he ever was. TJ

[bdw0617]

I bet mo goes to the wood. I know the derby is the goal but I assure you for repole, winning the wood is pretty dang important.

[dublino]

Thats funny acording to Repole listening to Pletcher is what he is going to do

http://www.youtube.com/user/HorseRacing ... Jbz9gx1bYA