The Factor for real?

[tbrace]

What is your take on The Factor, Baffert's horse?

Is he a contender or pretender for the Derby?

[kimberley mine]

Given how hard he was blowing after the Rebel, I'd say brilliant horse who needs to skip 10f and head for shorter races. At this point in his career, I don't see 10f for him. He might be trained to that distance as he matures.

His connections can stupid fun and make stupid money with him....if they're willing to stick to 9f or less. PA Derby, WV Derby, Illinois and Indiana Derbies, or if he stays in California, go for all-aged handicaps and open sprints to take advantage of the weight break.

If he were to go to the Derby, I wouldn't bet either him or Soldat at this point. What I see happening is the two of them flame each other out on the front end while a stalker or closer picks up the scraps (a la Giacomo).

[FOS]

hi tbrace

What is your take on The Factor, Baffert's horse?

Is he a contender or pretender for the Derby?

Right now...I would absolutely, positively call The Factor a KyDerby contender.

He has (among his strengths) the ability to break very sharply and potentially get clear before heavy traffic (in what'll probably be a very large KyDerby field, of up to 20) may take its toll/cause problems; he possesses a cruising speed not to be ignored; he's shown that he can relax (going two turns) and win easily going a mile and a sixteenth. Reality is, he's a helluva colt that's done everything asked of him...and (to my way of thinking) should (at this time anyway) be taken seriously.

Right now...two unanswerable questions (assuming the decision is made to run The Factor in the KyDerby) are; 1/ will he have a good trip, and 2/ can he run a mile and a quarter somewhere in the range/vicinity of 2:00 minutes and change to 2:02 and change? If the answers to both questions are Yes, The Factor will more than likely have a real chance to win the 2011 KyDerby. Remember too that last year Supersaver ran the mile and a quarter in the very pedestrian 2:04+ (as did Smarty Jones in the 2004 KyDerby).

Bottom line...The Factor is (to my way of thinking) a KyDerby contender.

Respectfully

[Bast]

The way the Kentucky Derby is run these days, with a full field and a quarter mile of sprint into the first turn, it is unlikely that anybody is going to get to the front and stay there without being pressed throughout the race. The Factor may be capable of cruising on the front, but there will be others in the race still quite green running flat out from the start.

The Factor may have a much better chance of winning the Preakness, which will have a smaller field.

[TJ]

What is your take on The Factor, Baffert's horse?

Is he a contender or pretender for the Derby?

Hi tbrace,
We're looking at a late developing 3YO who is his own worst enemy. He has very little slow in him and sheer determination to win at all cost. As FOS said he's done whatever has been asked of him and he has a trainer that know's what he has and when and how to ship to various tracks and win. As Kimberly said he did look as though that race took a lot out of him, but he was going two turns for the first time, ran legitimately strong fractions throughout without even a thought of taking a breather.....he certainly should have been tired after that race. At this point I have to see his next race at 2 turns......he could be a totally different horse after the conditioning and experience he gained out of that last race. Not to mention such a race could have taken some of the "go" out of him and he may be more apt to rate kindly. If that happen's he will be a real threat in the Kentucky Derby. Bottom line we have 46 days till the Derby, lots of preps to see and have to see how the pace will develop in this years Derby after we know who will be running in it.......lot's of puzzle pieces are still to be placed on the table. TJ

[kimberley mine]

TJ, that "late developing" is what stops me cold on him. If the Kentucky Derby were run the first Saturday in July instead of the first Saturday in May, I would be all over this horse like stink on a hog. He's likely to race one more time before the Derby. Even if he makes a tremendous move forward from this race (which we won't know until later), I'm not sure that will be enough.

This horse has been in the lead at every call of every race save his very first. In every race, he runs fractional splits the wrong way--blazing fast at the beginning of the race and slowing down as the race progresses. If he ran the same pace for a full furlong as he did the last 16th, his split would have been 24.8, faster than his 2nd quarter but well over a second slower than his first quarter--which was, by the standards he set in the San Vicente, positively dawdling. This implies to me either lack of fitness or lack of maturity, neither one of which bodes well for for his chances in a 20-horse field where it's all but a given that he will not be let loose on the lead.

(FWIW, I feel the same way about Mucho Macho Man--I think that one has the potential to be a very good horse but right now he is NOT derby material. MMM is a May baby, so he still has a lot of growing and developing to do, physically and mentally, and even his trainer has commented that he's a big dumb baby at the moment.)

[Jorge]

The 64K question I ask to myself is: Can he be rated at 10 furlongs and take command 4 fulongs off the finish line and resist all late rushers? I honestly don't see the point in trying to achieve all the fractionals and steal the race a-la Winning Colors, who received a 5 pounds allowance and in a certain way took all jockeys by surprise. This will not be the case this year, for everybody is preparing to take advantage of The Factor's running style. That is the precisely the reason why, most probably, this year's Kentucky Derby will attract a full house of participants, specially late rushers. I would really like to see him trying 8 furlongs but in a coming-from-behind fashion even if he loses.

[George William Smith]

I just found the GSV race card for The Factor's first start on Opening Day at Santa Anita

You can download the race card from my home page

I took a screen shot of him crossing the line, which is also on the same page showing nice action and the ease with which he won.

http://www.members.shaw.ca/thematchmaker/

George

[da hossman]

If The Factor runs in the Derby he will be "The Pace Factor" only - he had it all his way in the Rebel, an uncontested lead without pressure and then Sway Away never fired (bounce?). In the KY Derby there will be cheap speed pressing the pace for the stalkers and closers to run by in the last 1/8th.

If I had to pick Derby horses now, they would be To Honor And Serve, Dialed In, Stay Thirsty & Mucho Macho Man in no particular order. Love the way MMM has performed despite his youth, which makes him a horse that is maturing and improving with each month. Touch wood, he has shown quite a bit of soundness (made every dance) while making that steady improvement each step of the way. Love the pedigrees of To Honor And Serve and Stay Thirsty - Dialed In's pedigree is none too shabby either.

[zinn21]

I don't think he can get a mile and a quarter but what a talent he is. Brilliant fast and can carry it two turns. He might be unbeatable going a one turn mile or shorter..

[da hossman]

I agree Zinn - The Factor may be the fastest horse in North America - he is brilliant!

[louis finochio]

Pletcher has 5 3yr. olds he can run in the Derby. will P send his rabbits to take the starch out of TF? To set it up for UM? This is my thoughts on how it will play out.

[ElPrado]

Good Lord Louis! This is the first time you've made sense on this board that I've seen!

[bdw0617]

here is the mistake people are making with the factor and just in general. too many people, look at a horse and then try to see if the race he won, would win the kentucky derby. that is the quickest way, to lose money.


i have said it once, i will say it again, yoyu want to look for a horse that is improving and that is projecting towards the derby.


The factor, from november, when he came in 4th in the maiden, everyone said oh he doesn't have talent, then the next out blows out off the door.

Then the next race, everyone said well he has some pace in this race let's see if he can hold on. he runs the pace in the ground nad holds off a late closing sway away


then the next race, everyone says he won't get 2 turns, rates, and wins by 5.

every race, the horse is getting better and better and better. he has not gone backwards yet. that, not stanima, not closing abitity, etc, is what you need to look for. there is no doubt in my mind now this horse will get 10F becuase baffert will have him ready.

[kimberley mine]

i have said it once, i will say it again, yoyu want to look for a horse that is improving and that is projecting towards the derby.

....

every race, the horse is getting better and better and better. he has not gone backwards yet. that, not stanima, not closing abitity, etc, is what you need to look for. there is no doubt in my mind now this horse will get 10F becuase baffert will have him ready.

BDW everything you say is true and it in no way is mutually exclusive with my points. Thing is, this horse is not the only one who has been steadily improving. Soldat and Uncle Mo both came out of their most recent races very well, and are head and shoulders above everybody else at this point. Stay Thirsty should move ahead from the Gotham. Premier Pegasus just ran a corker. The question isn't is he improving, which he obviously is, the question is, will this horse improve quickly enough to reach the same level on the first Saturday in May as his potential rivals? I'm not convinced.

Compare him with Soldat. TF has been in the lead in every race since his very first. Soldat proved that he can lay off and stalk the pace in Saratoga. He then showed he could rate, run wide, weave in to the rail, split horses to make a move, and finish strong in the BCJT. He didn't catch Pluck, but nobody was going to catch Pluck that day. In the allowance in the slop, he got eyeballed by another horse before taking off, and in the Fountain of Youth he got in the lead and stayed there. Though I still wouldn't bet him (because I think the temptation to get out front and use his natural speed would be too high), if I had to choose between the two I would take Soldat for those very reasons rather than TF.