The Arkansas Derby

Bast · Postby **Bast** » Tue Apr 12, 2011 10:36 pm

A major reality check for The Factor.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Wed Apr 13, 2011 9:32 am

sway away

Bast · Postby **Bast** » Wed Apr 13, 2011 11:38 am

The entries.

1 Nehro (KY)
2 Elite Alex (ON)
3 The Factor (KY)
4 Brethren (KY)
5 Sway Away (KY)
6 Caleb's Posse (KY)
7 Truman's Commander (KY)
8 Alternation (KY)
9 Dance City (VA)
10 Archarcharch (KY)
11 J P's Gusto (KY)
12 J W Blue (KY)
13 Saratoga Red (KY)

zinn21 · Postby **zinn21** » Wed Apr 13, 2011 7:38 pm

I see P. Val is riding Sway Away; a switch from Go Go.

Bast · Postby **Bast** » Wed Apr 13, 2011 8:39 pm

TJ · Postby TJ » Thu Apr 14, 2011 6:56 am

Bast wrote:PP ?

Hi Bast,
Again this is the PP's for all the nominee's. TJ

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHors ... 416-498123

Bast · Postby **Bast** » Thu Apr 14, 2011 9:20 am

TJ wrote:
Bast wrote:PP ?

Hi Bast,
Again this is the PP's for all the nominee's. TJ

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHors ... 416-498123

Thanks for this!

zinn21 · Postby **zinn21** » Sat Apr 16, 2011 1:05 pm

Just looked at the PP's. Whew what a tough race. There are a good 5 or 6 horses that could show rapid improvement. Just a gut feeling but I don't think The Factor can get the mile and an eighth with this bunch chasing him. My guess is he will have company right out of the gate. I am looking for something that can close. Watched a race at OP today and they are closing and winning.. Here are my contenders:

a. Sway Away- He should run much better today.
b. Brethren- He was heavy fav in TB Derby he'll be dangerous today..
c. Nehro- loved his La Derby; again an improving 3 yold
d. Elite Alex- lots of talent; T Ritchie laid the wood to him since last start

One of these four horses, I believe, will win it. I love Sway Away but not sure he can get there today. He may be one start away from top dead center. I'm going to try hitting hard to win with Brethren. Pletcher has the knack for winning Derby preps. I think he is now set for a big run today. That said I will box these four in an exacta saver..

TJ · Postby TJ » Sat Apr 16, 2011 3:16 pm

I'm going way out on a limb in this one. Anthony Dutrow doesn't usually spin his wheels and J W Blue seems to have an interesting pattern developing in his form. He runs a bad race off a layoff, then comes back and wins in his second start back. He's done that twice so far and this is his second race back off another layoff after making up ground in the Rebel last time. He's working very well.....he made up as much ground in the Rebel as any one else that was in that race, gets an extra 1/16th to sustain his rally and best of all he should be 50-1:>) I will use The Factor, Nehro, Elite Alex and Sway Away in the gimmicks. TJ

zinn21 · Postby **zinn21** » Sat Apr 16, 2011 4:10 pm

TJ, your colt looked awful good in post..

Bast · Postby **Bast** » Sat Apr 16, 2011 4:28 pm

Archarcharch upsets Arkansas Derby, Nehro 2nd, Dance City 3rd. The Factor never got lead. 22.54, 46.53, 1:11.22. 1:36.18, 1:49.34 10-8-4-5

TJ · Postby TJ » Sat Apr 16, 2011 4:32 pm

zinn21 wrote:TJ, your colt looked awful good in post..

.

Hi Z,
He ran pretty good too.....he was running by the field right after the wire. The 1 1/4 would certainly suit him.....but he has no chance of getting in the Derby.....he needed all of this money. Kudo's to Archarcharch and Jon Court, he just propelled himself into one of the Derby favorites. TJ

Terrapin Flyer · Postby **Terrapin Flyer** » Sat Apr 16, 2011 4:40 pm

I think Nehro just became my Ky Derby horse. He's one of the few horses moving forward now and that will have run recently enough.

I'm glad The Factor fizzled out, I can't cheer for anything named after anything that has to do with Bill O'Reilly, unless it was making fun of his sexual harassment charge

TJ · Postby TJ » Sat Apr 16, 2011 4:55 pm

Here's the race. TJ
http://www1.drf.com/replays/savedreplays.jsp?RACE=1527

zinn21 · Postby **zinn21** » Sat Apr 16, 2011 5:20 pm

I would think Bonde will take Sway away home and focus on the Swaps Stakes @ HP. Very disappointed in Brethren's effort. He had nothing when the real running started. Elite Alex ran like he has a physical problem. No extension at all. He looked like God in Post Parade too..

Nehro is moving forward for sure. He will be a serious contender in the Derby. Rapidly improving. Archarcharch ran huge. So happy for Johnny Court. A great guy. He rode for me when he tried NorCal circuit in late 80's. Road the hide off a cheap little horse for me. Would love to see him win a Derby. If Uncle Mo is not the real deal the Derby is wide open. Six or seven could win it with a good trip.