NO FACTOR

[gmj828]

Will not run in the Derby
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... ce=twitter

[Jorge]

This seem to confirm that he will be following the same path previously followed by Holy Bull after his Kentucky Derby failure, that is, try to beat older horses at shorter distances and go for the Horse of the Year award.
Plan B would be to become champion sprinter. Plan C would be to become champion miler.

[TJ]

Will not run in the Derby
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... ce=twitter

Hi gmj,
That changes the whole Derby picture now.....pace makes the race and without The Factor's sharp speed in the Derby it's a whole new ball game. TJ

[gmj828]

Hey TJ-

It totally changes the pace scenario and I have no idea what to make of it all.

[Jorge]

Don't be surprised if this year's Kentucky Derby pace is suicidal, precisely because of the absence of The Factor. The Derby is always the most unpredictable ironic race of all. It's a collage of factors and paradigms. The absence of a clear favorite makes this year's race a perfect scenario for a commanding Canonero II, Hansel or Little Current kind of horse.

[Joltman]

Don't be surprised if this year's Kentucky Derby pace is suicidal, precisely because of the absence of The Factor. The Derby is always the most unpredictable ironic race of all. It's a collage of factors and paradigms. The absence of a clear favorite makes this year's race a perfect scenario for a commanding Canonero II, Hansel or Little Current kind of horse.

I concur, there's always somebody willing to go out fast and no one will steal the race. For closers a clean trip is a must. The Factor is really about the only one that had both speed and class to go Coast to Coast with pressure and be a Factor at the end.

jm

[kimberley mine]

I'm actually glad to hear this--I think he's a very good horse, but that the Derby was not an ideal fit for him.

Meanwhile, I don't agree that it's going to be a flameout on the front end with Factor gone. I think it will make it a lot more honest and less of a Monarchos year.....or Giacomo year, for that matter.

[zinn21]

With 20 head and at least 8 with a legitimate no shot there will be at least 3 or 4 who will going for their 45 and 4/5's seconds of glory..

[da hossman]

I think there are always at least 8 with no shot and have only been wrong once on that - I still can't understand how Mine That Bird won...

I also believe it will be a legitimate pace (45 something) whether the pacesetters are flameouts or Spend A Buck. The Factor's absence or presence would not impact my strategy if I trained one of the contenders, because I never have believed The Factor could go a mile and a quarter other than in a trailer. He's not bred for it and his style is not conducive to it.

Baffert's forgotten horse worries me...by a turf sire but what a brilliant race he ran in the Santa Anita Derby on the dirt...lightly raced but physically built to go 2 turns...a homebred for a guy that has been active in the game for a long time and tried to serve the game, karma may be at play...seemingly overlooked by the media...the right style as he can stalk or close...

Mucho Macho Man has been my Derby choice for a long time (bet him in the Derby future book), but I may have to make a hunch or saver play on Midnight Interlude. Then again may have to play an exotic box with those two as well as Dialed In, Toby's Corner, Archarcharch, Master of Hounds and maybe another...think how long the odds will be on the "favorite" this year!