122

[Whirlaway]

I was wonderin’ why and just couldn’t help but try to figure out how so many favorites lost their Derby preps. I’m thinkin’ I may have found the answer.

While reviewing the past performances I couldn’t help but notice that most of the horses running a route on dirt while moving up to 122 pounds for the first time lost that race: Anthony’s Cross, Archarcharch, Astrology, Mucho Macho Man, Nehro, Shakelford, Silver Medallion, Soldat, The Factor, Twice the Appeal, Twin Spires and Watch Me Go. Now I’m no expert, I don’t expect to get it all right and I may have missed one or two, but that is almost half of em’. Of particular note is Florida Derby prep favorite Soldat – he runs lights out at 120 pounds and less but just can’t win at 122 pounds . Another is Arkansas Derby prep favorite The Factor - he wanted nothing to do with 122 pounds in the Arkansas. Mucho Macho Man moved up to 122 pounds in the Louisiana and lost but of course, he had that shoe excuse. No excuses for Silver Medallion in the Lexington. I didn’t review all of em’ but it seems a few extra pounds made a big difference when going two turns with this group, particularly on dirt.

I also noticed some of the horses that ran under those conditions that returned to racing had to change their running style - it seems they couldn’t run on the pace with the additional weight. Some the race knocked completely off form which makes me kinda wonder about Mucho Macho Man, Pants on Fire, Nehro and others coming to the Derby off a tough effort under similar high poundage. Sadly, some that raced under those conditions will ever be the same.

Those few hosses’ winning under those conditions - Dialed In, Midnight Interlude, Pants on Fire and Toby’s Corner won by narrow margins, Uncle Mo being the only exception.

What say you? Am I reading too much into this thing or has weight brought em’ all together? Will the ability to carry weight be the decisive factor in this Derby or should I overlook the weight factor altogether? At the least, I’m thinkin’ them horses with proven ability to carry the highest weight successfully, I’m givin’ them the nod. What makes the weight angle seem so right on track is when I use it to handicap this wide open any horse can win Derby, it isn’t so wide open anymore.

[Bast]

I was wonderin’ why and just couldn’t help but try to figure out how so many favorites lost their Derby preps. I’m thinkin’ I may have found the answer.

While reviewing the past performances I couldn’t help but notice that most of the horses running a route on dirt while moving up to 122 pounds for the first time lost that race: Anthony’s Cross, Archarcharch, Astrology, Mucho Macho Man, Nehro, Shakelford, Silver Medallion, Soldat, The Factor, Twice the Appeal, Twin Spires and Watch Me Go. Now I’m no expert, I don’t expect to get it all right and I may have missed one or two, but that is almost half of em’. Of particular note is Florida Derby prep favorite Soldat – he runs lights out at 120 pounds and less but just can’t win at 122 pounds . Another is Arkansas Derby prep favorite The Factor - he wanted nothing to do with 122 pounds in the Arkansas. Mucho Macho Man moved up to 122 pounds in the Louisiana and lost but of course, he had that shoe excuse. No excuses for Silver Medallion in the Lexington. I didn’t review all of em’ but it seems a few extra pounds made a big difference when going two turns with this group, particularly on dirt.

I also noticed some of the horses that ran under those conditions that returned to racing had to change their running style - it seems they couldn’t run on the pace with the additional weight. Some the race knocked completely off form which makes me kinda wonder about Mucho Macho Man, Pants on Fire, Nehro and others coming to the Derby off a tough effort under similar high poundage. Sadly, some that raced under those conditions will ever be the same.

Those few hosses’ winning under those conditions - Dialed In, Midnight Interlude, Pants on Fire and Toby’s Corner won by narrow margins, Uncle Mo being the only exception.

What say you? Am I reading too much into this thing or has weight brought em’ all together? Will the ability to carry weight be the decisive factor in this Derby or should I overlook the weight factor altogether? At the least, I’m thinkin’ them horses with proven ability to carry the highest weight successfully, I’m givin’ them the nod. What makes the weight angle seem so right on track is when I use it to handicap this wide open any horse can win Derby, it isn’t so wide open anymore.

These animals weigh about 1100 pounds. Shifting them from 120 pounds to 122 shouldn't be noticeable. Your own body weight can swing a few pounds in a day, more so in a much larger body.

We don't have real handicaps anymore. Back when the topweight had 136 pounds on their back, and someone else got in with 110, that weight makes a difference at racing speeds, but when the whole field carries the same weight, 122 pounds should be indistinguishable from 120.

Horses are very strong animals. Ask anyone who has actually handled them.

[Whirlaway]

I'm no trainer and as someone that has trained horses you have first hand experience. What does the weight of the horse have to do with the weight the horse has to carry?

Please explain.

[Bast]

I'm no trainer and as someone that has trained horses you have first hand experience. What does the weight of the horse have to do with the weight the horse has to carry?

Please explain.

People don't grow up anymore seeing horses work. Until surprisingly recent times (the German army invading Russia in WW2 had its artillery largely pulled by horse teams) horses were everywhere. Horses pulled carriages, obviously, but they also hauled streetcars, all manner of delivery wagons, fire engines, etc. During the Depression, TB mares in the Bluegrass were seen pulling plows.

Horses are very strong. Memory fails me at the moment, but there was a leading 3 y o in the last 10 years who carried a 170 pound exercise rider. There was also a major stakes winner named Olden Times who was once shown on the cover of the Blood-Horse wearing a western saddle and carrying his trainer--who used to saddle him up and ride off to pick up the mail with him at the track.

Horses are a lot tougher than the culture of the race track would have you believe.

For the sake of simplicity, let's assume that horses race carrying 10% of their body weight. If you carry 10% of your body weight, and then have to carry 10.015%, will you feel a difference? I think not.

[TJ]

I was wonderin’ why and just couldn’t help but try to figure out how so many favorites lost their Derby preps. I’m thinkin’ I may have found the answer.

While reviewing the past performances I couldn’t help but notice that most of the horses running a route on dirt while moving up to 122 pounds for the first time lost that race: Anthony’s Cross, Archarcharch, Astrology, Mucho Macho Man, Nehro, Shakelford, Silver Medallion, Soldat, The Factor, Twice the Appeal, Twin Spires and Watch Me Go. Now I’m no expert, I don’t expect to get it all right and I may have missed one or two, but that is almost half of em’. Of particular note is Florida Derby prep favorite Soldat – he runs lights out at 120 pounds and less but just can’t win at 122 pounds . Another is Arkansas Derby prep favorite The Factor - he wanted nothing to do with 122 pounds in the Arkansas. Mucho Macho Man moved up to 122 pounds in the Louisiana and lost but of course, he had that shoe excuse. No excuses for Silver Medallion in the Lexington. I didn’t review all of em’ but it seems a few extra pounds made a big difference when going two turns with this group, particularly on dirt.

I also noticed some of the horses that ran under those conditions that returned to racing had to change their running style - it seems they couldn’t run on the pace with the additional weight. Some the race knocked completely off form which makes me kinda wonder about Mucho Macho Man, Pants on Fire, Nehro and others coming to the Derby off a tough effort under similar high poundage. Sadly, some that raced under those conditions will ever be the same.

Those few hosses’ winning under those conditions - Dialed In, Midnight Interlude, Pants on Fire and Toby’s Corner won by narrow margins, Uncle Mo being the only exception.

What say you? Am I reading too much into this thing or has weight brought em’ all together? Will the ability to carry weight be the decisive factor in this Derby or should I overlook the weight factor altogether? At the least, I’m thinkin’ them horses with proven ability to carry the highest weight successfully, I’m givin’ them the nod. What makes the weight angle seem so right on track is when I use it to handicap this wide open any horse can win Derby, it isn’t so wide open anymore.

Weight historically has been the great equalizer in horse racing. It is the basis for our system of 'handicap races' of which hypothetically the horses are weighted on their ability and if the racing secretary did a good job in assigning the imposts all the horses would be expected to hit the wire at the same time. This system had its merit years ago, although as time went on trainer's would complain about the impost they were assigned and would withdraw their top horse from running. It then became a game of shaving weight off the top weight and lowering the weights of the lesser horses so much so they didn't have rider's that could make that weight assignment. So the "real" high weight handicap races of years ago became obsolete and replaced with this new wave of a much lower high weight in the field and all racing secretaries trying to lower the weight on the best horse so they could draw the name horse into the field. With this brief history, I can tell you weight could stop a freight train when it came to race horses.....not so much so in sprint races as it was in distance races which 5 pounds was equivalent to a horses speed over that distance to slow by a full second. At the Derby distance and especially young horses carrying a couple extra pounds over a 1 1/8th and soon over a never before tried distance of 1 1/4 miles.....2 lbs makes a difference. Some of the examples you cited had nothing to do with the weight as much as the horse not being right during the running or getting in trouble. For instance, Mucho Macho Man citing his Florsheim's when he got beat, Astrology entered his race off a layoff after being sick, Soldat was taken back and he wanted no part of the dirt hitting him in the face and Silver Medallion ran back to soon in his last start. The Factor was also taken back and it was this restraint that caused him to flip his palate. The weight may have had something to do with some of the beats, but I doubt it was the entire reason, The Derby is weight for age so everyone carries the same. In order to find out who gets a weight break you have a lot of work to do checking the weight carried against each horse in each race to see who may get a slight edge in that respect. A quick example is Archarcharch who won his last race over Nehro.....Archarcharch carried 122 in winning over the 1 1/8 distance and Nehro carried 120. That two pounds that Archarcharch will receive going the 1 1/4 distance of the Derby could equate to a couple 5ths of a second. There are many horses that will be receiving weight breaks in this manner.....just adds to how hard it will be to factor in everything in deciphering this Derby winner. Weight being just the tip of the iceberg.....then there are those big strong strapping horses that weigh doesn't seem to bother....no sure angles when it comes to handicapping:>) Don't forget this twist, the weight carried by all these horses in the Derby will be more than they ever carried in their life......126 pounds, they'll all be packin' some lead in their saddle bags for this one:>) You may also consider, when you think a horse ran a slow time in winning a Derby......the horse was doing two things he's never did before....run 1 1/4 miles at race speed and carried at least 4 pounds more than he ever did in his life....time isn't all that matter's. TJ

[gmj828]

Looking over some past performances, I noticed that Master of Hounds has already carried 126lbs 3 times and 129lbs twice. Looks like the highest weight for any of the others is 123.
Does anybody have any opinions on this?

[LB]

Horses are very strong. Memory fails me at the moment, but there was a leading 3 y o in the last 10 years who carried a 170 pound exercise rider. There was also a major stakes winner named Olden Times who was once shown on the cover of the Blood-Horse wearing a western saddle and carrying his trainer--who used to saddle him up and ride off to pick up the mail with him at the track.

You might be thinking of Hard Spun who used to gallop carrying his trainer Larry Jones.

[TJ]

Looking over some past performances, I noticed that Master of Hounds has already carried 126lbs 3 times and 129lbs twice. Looks like the highest weight for any of the others is 123.
Does anybody have any opinions on this?

Hi gmj,
Another one of the differences in racing across the pond. That horse should have been on his way over here by now? I think they take entries today for Master of Hounds other race possibilty over there, so we should get the final word on his Derby status soon. TJ

[gmj828]

I read that MOH was withdrawn from the 2000 Guineas so I'm guessing he's going to run in the derby with Gomez as his jock (not confirmed)
http://www.onefasthorse.com/frankel-to- ... eas/14386/

I agree TJ, he should have been here by now. He's just going to show up on the second, breeze the track once, and run on the 7th?
If he wins then he is truly a super horse.

[TJ]

I read that MOH was withdrawn from the 2000 Guineas so I'm guessing he's going to run in the derby with Gomez as his jock (not confirmed)
http://www.onefasthorse.com/frankel-to- ... eas/14386/

I agree TJ, he should have been here by now. He's just going to show up on the second, breeze the track once, and run on the 7th?
If he wins then he is truly a super horse.

Hi gmj,
Thanks for that update...won't have to wait any longer start handicapping the Derby, will only need to tweak it out when the PP's are drawn next Wednesday. TJ

[Bast]

At the Derby distance and especially young horses carrying a couple extra pounds over a 1 1/8th and soon over a never before tried distance of 1 1/4 miles.....2 lbs makes a difference. Some of the examples you cited had nothing to do with the weight as much as the horse not being right during the running or getting in trouble. ........then there are those big strong strapping horses that weigh doesn't seem to bother....no sure angles when it comes to handicapping:>) Don't forget this twist, the weight carried by all these horses in the Derby will be more than they ever carried in their life......126 pounds, they'll all be packin' some lead in their saddle bags for this one:>) You may also consider, when you think a horse ran a slow time in winning a Derby......the horse was doing two things he's never did before....run 1 1/4 miles at race speed and carried at least 4 pounds more than he ever did in his life....time isn't all that matter's. TJ

I'm just not buying that carrying an additional 2-4 pounds than in previous races is going make a difference in the outcome when they are all carrying 126 pounds. Any TB troubled by carrying 126 pounds is in the wrong line of work.

[TJ]

At the Derby distance and especially young horses carrying a couple extra pounds over a 1 1/8th and soon over a never before tried distance of 1 1/4 miles.....2 lbs makes a difference. Some of the examples you cited had nothing to do with the weight as much as the horse not being right during the running or getting in trouble. ........then there are those big strong strapping horses that weigh doesn't seem to bother....no sure angles when it comes to handicapping:>) Don't forget this twist, the weight carried by all these horses in the Derby will be more than they ever carried in their life......126 pounds, they'll all be packin' some lead in their saddle bags for this one:>) You may also consider, when you think a horse ran a slow time in winning a Derby......the horse was doing two things he's never did before....run 1 1/4 miles at race speed and carried at least 4 pounds more than he ever did in his life....time isn't all that matter's. TJ

I'm just not buying that carrying an additional 2-4 pounds than in previous races is going make a difference in the outcome when they are all carrying 126 pounds. Any TB troubled by carrying 126 pounds is in the wrong line of work.

Hi Bast,
I'm certainly not asking you to buy it and we all have our own opinions due to life experience with horses. But weight has always been the great equalizer in this business, especially over a distance of ground at high speed and I believe it will continue to be. They may all be carrying the same weight....but that still doesn't mean there isn't a weight swing going to the advantage of one horse or another from their last race and weight assignment. TJ

[Bast]

At the Derby distance and especially young horses carrying a couple extra pounds over a 1 1/8th and soon over a never before tried distance of 1 1/4 miles.....2 lbs makes a difference. Some of the examples you cited had nothing to do with the weight as much as the horse not being right during the running or getting in trouble. ........then there are those big strong strapping horses that weigh doesn't seem to bother....no sure angles when it comes to handicapping:>) Don't forget this twist, the weight carried by all these horses in the Derby will be more than they ever carried in their life......126 pounds, they'll all be packin' some lead in their saddle bags for this one:>) You may also consider, when you think a horse ran a slow time in winning a Derby......the horse was doing two things he's never did before....run 1 1/4 miles at race speed and carried at least 4 pounds more than he ever did in his life....time isn't all that matter's. TJ

I'm just not buying that carrying an additional 2-4 pounds than in previous races is going make a difference in the outcome when they are all carrying 126 pounds. Any TB troubled by carrying 126 pounds is in the wrong line of work.

Hi Bast,
I'm certainly not asking you to buy it and we all have our own opinions due to life experience with horses. But weight has always been the great equalizer in this business, especially over a distance of ground at high speed and I believe it will continue to be. They may all be carrying the same weight....but that still doesn't mean there isn't a weight swing going to the advantage of one horse or another from their last race and weight assignment. TJ

In a race like the Kentucky Derby, with 20 (including many green horses) running just slightly under control, most of them will be carrying more weight than they did before. They are also more likely to go wider than before, be checked more sharply than ever before, and be asked to run with more fatigue than ever before--all this with the spectacle of 100,000 people howling at them. 2-3 pounds is the least of their worries.

[TJ]

At the Derby distance and especially young horses carrying a couple extra pounds over a 1 1/8th and soon over a never before tried distance of 1 1/4 miles.....2 lbs makes a difference. Some of the examples you cited had nothing to do with the weight as much as the horse not being right during the running or getting in trouble. ........then there are those big strong strapping horses that weigh doesn't seem to bother....no sure angles when it comes to handicapping:>) Don't forget this twist, the weight carried by all these horses in the Derby will be more than they ever carried in their life......126 pounds, they'll all be packin' some lead in their saddle bags for this one:>) You may also consider, when you think a horse ran a slow time in winning a Derby......the horse was doing two things he's never did before....run 1 1/4 miles at race speed and carried at least 4 pounds more than he ever did in his life....time isn't all that matter's. TJ

I'm just not buying that carrying an additional 2-4 pounds than in previous races is going make a difference in the outcome when they are all carrying 126 pounds. Any TB troubled by carrying 126 pounds is in the wrong line of work.

Hi Bast,
I'm certainly not asking you to buy it and we all have our own opinions due to life experience with horses. But weight has always been the great equalizer in this business, especially over a distance of ground at high speed and I believe it will continue to be. They may all be carrying the same weight....but that still doesn't mean there isn't a weight swing going to the advantage of one horse or another from their last race and weight assignment. TJ

In a race like the Kentucky Derby, with 20 (including many green horses) running just slightly under control, most of them will be carrying more weight than they did before. They are also more likely to go wider than before, be checked more sharply than ever before, and be asked to run with more fatigue than ever before--all this with the spectacle of 100,000 people howling at them. 2-3 pounds is the least of their worries.

Hi Bast,
OK, if you say so:>) TJ

[xfactor fan]

Isn't the old handicap formula, 1 lb = 1 length at the finish line?

But I suppose this doesn't matter if everybody goes off at the same weight.