Here is something to chew on about the derby and breeding

[bdw0617]

champagne - uncle mo 220k yearling
Norfolk -- 110k yearling
Hollywood juvenile -22k 2YOIT




wood - home bred
arknasas derby - 60k yearling
Florida derby- 475k yearling
Santa Anita derby - home bred
bluegrass - home bred
Louisiana derby - home bred

also consider that the Florida derby winner on numbers, would not have won any other prep race at 9F grade 1 this year.

simply put, no one breds classic horses anymore. We bred 2YO superstars. If you want a derby horse, bred him yourself.

[karenkarenn]

OKay BDW
define " Homebred"
If you mean that they owner retained the horse instead of selling for little profit?

OKay Ill tell you what, you keep all of your foals and mares and board them at your house or acrage and see what kind of costs you come up with.
Plus shipping fees and hiring a vet and oh yes
Go out and personally take care of them all........See how many times you have to think about who gets along with who.
And who should be kept away from who.
Okay then after that you have to figure out which ones are derby bound..... and realizing that there alot of horses out there that are already nominated for the derby and how much that is going to cost and figuring out which ones have talent now and which ones are going to bloom by the time they are three.
So really BDW it's a GUESSING GAME..

[zinn21]

BD, the races you present certainly supports your argument but lets take a look at the last 30 triple crown winners and see if your thesis holds up..

[Bast]

BD, the races you present certainly supports your argument but lets take a look at the last 30 triple crown winners and see if your thesis holds up..

Look at the winners of the triple crown.

[Whirlaway]

Lets take a look at the Racing Class of Sire's of Derby Winners, that should give us some perspective . . . http://www.chef-de-race.com/classic_winners/racing_class_of_derby_sires.htm

[Bast]

Sir Barton--purchased at 2
Gallant Fox—homebred
Omaha—homebred
War Admiral—homebred
Whirlaway—homebred
Count Fleet—homebred
Assault—homebred
Citation—homebred
Secretariat—homebred
Seattle Slew—purchased as a yearling
Affirmed—homebred

[bdw0617]

Sir Barton--purchased at 2
Gallant Fox—homebred
Omaha—homebred
War Admiral—homebred
Whirlaway—homebred
Count Fleet—homebred
Assault—homebred
Citation—homebred
Secretariat—homebred
Seattle Slew—purchased as a yearling
Affirmed—homebred

damn

[kimberley mine]

OKay BDW
define " Homebred"
If you mean that they owner retained the horse instead of selling for little profit?

Or, the breeder bred to race, just bred to race at a higher level than one normally assumes with that title.

Super Saver--sort of homebred (dam bought while he was in utero)
Barbaro--homebred
Giacomo--homebred
Street Sense--homebred
Smarty Jones--homebred
Grindstone--homebred
Sea Hero--homebred

You have to go back to Fusaichi Pegasus to find a Derby winner bought for a very large sum, and after him, all the way back to Strike the Gold.

It's worth noting that several of those owners were lucky....sired in the first crop of a horse who would turn out to be a hit.

[Joltman]

Another interesting take on this is in an article in the TT daily

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/media/ ... 050511.pdf by Rommy Faversham.

"Last year’s winner, Super Saver, was the only runner by a
stallion to already have sired a Derby winner (deceased Maria’s
Mon, sire of 2001 winner Monarchos). This year, Brilliant
Speed’s sire, Dynaformer, is the only stallion of a runner in this
year’s field with a previous Derby winner (Barbaro).
This year’s Derby field demonstrates a sharp dropoff from
2010 in the collective racing class of its dams.
Last year, there were three starters out of Grade 1 stakes
winners; four others were out of nonwinning mares.
This year, two of the starters are out of foreign group winners,
but none was foaled by an American graded stakes winner.
Moreover, eight of the entrants are out of nonwinning dams."

The fact that there are NO starters out of 20 that are American Graded winners is amazing to me. Somebody will get G1 black type close up in their FF on Sat, but the rule of thumb about great race mares being great dams does not hold up this year. It may be the unique nature of the Triple Crown races and the 'preparation' for them these days. Somebody is doing something wrong somewhere.


jm



jm

[Mahubah]

It may be just a statistical fluke, Jolt. When I was researching American Classic Pedigrees 1914-2002, I found that 15.6% of the dams of winners of Triple Crown races, the Kentucky Oaks, and the CCA Oaks during that period had won at the grade III level (or reasonable equivalent prior to the advent of the graded stakes system) or higher during their own racing careers. While that may not seem like a lot, you have to remember that no more than 1% of fillies ever win a race at that level, so they were way overrepresented among dams of Classic winners, especially given that good race mares do not have the advantage of being able to produce many more foals than their lesser sisters -- unlike good males, which at least early in their stud careers usually have much bigger books than males of lesser racing ability. If you have a copy of the book, you can find the results in Section III, "Racing Class of Sires and Dams," in the appendix.

[Crystal]

homebred or not, do you think that this was the first and only horse the owners had ever bred? This isn't Dreamer folks.. these people have probably been breeding for a long time and have ALOT of money to support their horse habit..

Don't be fooled, just because they didn't purchase a horse with "Fasig" or "Keeneland" stamped on their butt. They probably (as Karen illustrated) spent LESS money if they have purchased a horse at auction.

[bdw0617]

homebred or not, do you think that this was the first and only horse the owners had ever bred? This isn't Dreamer folks.. these people have probably been breeding for a long time and have ALOT of money to support their horse habit..

Don't be fooled, just because they didn't purchase a horse with "Fasig" or "Keeneland" stamped on their butt. They probably (as Karen illustrated) spent LESS money if they have purchased a horse at auction.

Crystal you are missing the point. It's not that you shouldn't spend money alot of money and that you can bred a triple crown winner "cheap". There is no getting around spending money in horse racing, that's a given.

The point I am trying to point out is, what are breed to race people doing differently than breed to sale. The fact that all but 1 triple crown winner were home breds, stands out to me. Are they following a different formula? Are they putting more thought into what they are doing because they know it will be theirs?

I find it also interesting, this year's derby winner, by a south American horse, out of a German bred mare. There is very very little American blood in the derby winner, and ironically the horse looks like he can run 3 miles. Looks very sound, I will go so far as to say the fact that we all seem to think the horse is sound, and has the right pedigree to run long is why some are cautiously optimistic that we can have a triple crown winner this year.

[ElPrado]

From what I remember, he's 4x4 Lyphard, and, miraculously, Lyphard was American bred, just Euro raced. You don't get much more American hemisphere than Northern Dancer. The horse has plenty of American blood. Go farther back in the pedigree and you find such horses as Lexington... more American blood.

[bdw0617]

From what I remember, he's 4x4 Lyphard, and, miraculously, Lyphard was American bred, just Euro raced. You don't get much more American hemisphere than Northern Dancer. The horse has plenty of American blood. Go farther back in the pedigree and you find such horses as Lexington... more American blood.

YOu are nitpicking for the sake of nitpicking.

when i say"American blood", I mean current American blood. I mean hell back in lyphard's day they ran horses and our horses were sound. And in that since, LEROIDESANIMAUX, who raced in south america and was then brought here, who was sired by a horse that was bred in the US but raced in france and argentina, who was sired by a french bred who raced in france, out of a dam line that is predominatly european, and by a damsire line that is pretty damn European, is pretty unamerican. It's not storm cat that's for sure.

The premise of me stating no American blood, or little of it, is to say that apparently our breed now, doesn't seem capable of running a route of ground effectively and is brittle, so what is the point of me going back to when horses could run a route of ground and were not brittle? That defeats the whole point of the post.

The premise is to say, that the 2 biggest priced horses in the derby, stay thirsty and dialed in, finished 12th and 8th respectively and were both looking for a taxi cab by the time they hit the stretch. That dailed in could only stand to have 1 workout since his last race coming into the derby.

[kimberley mine]

The point I am trying to point out is, what are breed to race people doing differently than breed to sale. The fact that all but 1 triple crown winner were home breds, stands out to me. Are they following a different formula? Are they putting more thought into what they are doing because they know it will be theirs?

With the breed-to-sell crowd, there will always be an element of following the market's trends and desires. Offering the market a product it does not want is a good way to go out of business quickly. Being behind in what the market wants is a good way to go out of business quickly--ask anybody who bred a first-year or second-year stallion in 2007 and tried to sell a yearling in 2009.

Breed-to-race operations' primary goal is producing a nice horse who can run. Some breed with a plan of being able to sell if need be, but the primary goal is a winning racehorse. The Mosses are a pretty good example of that--Giacomo and Tiago were by stallions who stood for less than $15,000. Cozie Rosie was bred on a $30,000 fee. The yearling market would not have paid well for any of those horses, since they weren't by "hot" stallions, which has no bearing on whether or not their parents were useful racehorses and/or producers.