The downward spiril in triple crown horses is linked to...

[bdw0617]

Rick Dutrow.

I'm looking at this 3YO crop. I know we say this every year, but seriously, this group of 3YO's so far is garbage. like seriously, garbage. I have not seen one horse that gets me remotely excited about the possibility of running 9F let alone 10.

And the few horses that actually have some ability they get coddled half to death.

I got to thinking today and I came to the conclusion, this is all Rick Dutrow's fault. Dutrow took a juiced to the brim freak of nature in Big Brown, ran him 2 times before the derby and proceeded to run away and hide on the first saturday and may and not only that, was a lost shoe and poor ride away from a triple crown


now, this 2 starts before the derby seems to be the chique thing to do. Uncle Mo last year, union rags this year. Well it worked for big brown that is obviously the best way to get your horse to the derby with the best chance of winning. what these people are not realizing or are realizing and just don't care is that the horse was most likely, actually no, it's been proven he was juiced out of his freaking mind! once they winged him off off the juice he was a shell of his pre juiced self, still good but not dominant.

When are these trainers going to learn you can't take a regular talented horse run him a few times at 5F, give him a cream puff non graded stake or grade, 1 9F grade 1 race and be prepared for the freaking Kentucky derby, just because big brown did it.

even taking it a step further, these horses that did things very unconventionally like win the derby with a 5 week break like barbaro did, are FREAKS! FREAKS can get away w2ith that. your horse can't! he might be good but he's not barbaro, juiced up big brown good.

train the damn horses like race horses and we might just might get back to having competitive, interesting triple crown races. now every year, all i8t is is shaking the mud to hope to find 1 nugget out of 35000 race horses that is just uber talented. that's not the way it's supposed to be.

Rick Dutrow fooled everyone into thinking this is the best way to get a champion.

[reenci]

well stated

[Lisann]

Agreed. Race horses should actually RACE.

[xfactor fan]

While Dutrow is not my most favorite trainer, he shouldn't shoulder the entire blame for the problems of racing.

While Big Brown ran on some kind of steroids, how many others horses in the field also ran on steroids?

Anyone consider the effect of trainer stats?

[zinn21]

It does seem now more than ever our triple crown horses are surfacing later and later. But that may simply be a function of changing developmental philosophies by today's trainer. How many trainers today would opt at getting a big strapping horse like Secretariat ready to run in July or August of his two year old year?

[Bast]

It does seem now more than ever our triple crown horses are surfacing later and later. But that may simply be a function of changing developmental philosophies by today's trainer. How many trainers today would opt at getting a big strapping horse like Secretariat ready to run in July or August of his two year old year?

Unfortunately, whether or not a horse is fit and ready to run a particular race is not dependent upon whatever "philosophy" lurks in one's brain. It's a matter of actual physical and mental preparation of the equine athlete.

[reenci]

It does seem now more than ever our triple crown horses are surfacing later and later. But that may simply be a function of changing developmental philosophies by today's trainer. How many trainers today would opt at getting a big strapping horse like Secretariat ready to run in July or August of his two year old year?

Unfortunately, whether or not a horse is fit and ready to run a particular race is not dependent upon whatever "philosophy" lurks in one's brain. It's a matter of actual physical and mental preparation of the equine athlete.

.................yeah, mental state of mind is half the battle with horses

[casallc]

Dutrows bigest problem is that he is a better trainer than the rest, that automatically puts a target on your back. What makes it even worse is he doesn't kiss the ass of the elites who have all sworn a vendetta against him, for it. Here are trainer stats as of breeders cup 2011:

Dutrow:
Win %: 27% In-The-Money %: 60%

Pletcher:
Win %: 24% In-The-Money %: 55%

Asmussen:
Win %: 20% In-The-Money %: 52%

Jones:
Win %: 20% In-The-Money %: 52%

Mott:
Win %: 17% In-The-Money %: 45%

Motion:
Win %: 22% In-The-Money %: 50%

Zito:
Win %: 14% In-The-Money %: 36%

[Bast]

It does seem now more than ever our triple crown horses are surfacing later and later. But that may simply be a function of changing developmental philosophies by today's trainer. How many trainers today would opt at getting a big strapping horse like Secretariat ready to run in July or August of his two year old year?

Unfortunately, whether or not a horse is fit and ready to run a particular race is not dependent upon whatever "philosophy" lurks in one's brain. It's a matter of actual physical and mental preparation of the equine athlete.

.................yeah, mental state of mind is half the battle with horses

Running a green horse in a 20-entry Kentucky Derby usually does not end well.

[zinn21]

BD wrote:

>>When are these trainers going to learn you can't take a regular talented horse run him a few times at 5F, give him a cream puff non graded stake or grade, 1 9F grade 1 race and be prepared for the freaking Kentucky derby, just because big brown did it. <<


It is a significant change from the past. Just looking at recent Derby winners:

Animal Kingdom; 4 starts prior to the Derby
Super Saver; 6 starts
MTB; 8 starts
BB; 3 starts
SS; 7 starts
Barbaro; 5 starts
Giacomo; 7 starts

compared to:

Affirmed; 13 starts
Seattle Slew; 6 starts
Bold Forbes; 8 starts
Foolish Pleasure; 9 starts
Cannonade; 6 starts
Secretariat; 9 starts
Riva Ridge; 7starts

So 40 starts by the last seven Derby winners or 5.71 avg. compared to 58 starts for seven Derby winners or 8.28 avg from the 70's.

[pfrsue]

So 40 starts by the last seven Derby winners or 5.71 avg. compared to 58 starts for seven Derby winners or 8.28 avg from the 70's.

I'm not sure it's THAT big of a difference. Affirmed's 13 starts almost look like an outlier. If I had the resource material, I think I'd go back another decade or two just out of curiosity.

[Crystal]

I have never heard anyone refer to a GRADE 1 as a "CREAM PUFF" race... like really it doesnt matter the distance, it's the competition in the field that makes the race.

And really a what >3% of the TB population will ever see graded stake company in their 3 year old year?


Also, horses get lucky.. Drill has made a prime example of that lately..

[zinn21]

pfrsue, a couple of starts in the time frame seems significant. That's 25% more starts on average in a couple of decades.

Funny, I saw an interview this weekend by Trainer Jeff Bonde and they asked him about his 1-22-12 maiden winner, Majestic Stride. He called him his "Derby horse".. Trainers with a different mindset on their Derby horses. Two starts, break your maiden in late January and they're talking Derby..

[stancaris]

Also, the horses winning the roses in recent times are doing it off lower Beyer figs than those of 10 to 15 years ago. It was common 10 years ago for the winner to have recorded 103 or higher Beyer Figs as a must. Recently Derby winners Giacomo, Mine that bird, super saver and animal kingdom have won the roses without running a triple digit Beyer in their career to that point.

[Mood Swings]

BD wrote:


It is a significant change from the past. Just looking at recent Derby winners:

Animal Kingdom; 4 starts prior to the Derby
Super Saver; 6 starts
MTB; 8 starts
BB; 3 starts
SS; 7 starts
Barbaro; 5 starts
Giacomo; 7 starts

compared to:

Affirmed; 13 starts
Seattle Slew; 6 starts
Bold Forbes; 8 starts
Foolish Pleasure; 9 starts
Cannonade; 6 starts
Secretariat; 9 starts
Riva Ridge; 7starts

So 40 starts by the last seven Derby winners or 5.71 avg. compared to 58 starts for seven Derby winners or 8.28 avg from the 70's.

That is interesting!