As I see it, the Belmont boils down to 5 possibilities. I’ll Have Another and Dullahan, have the most stamina influences in their pedigrees (IMO) with I’ll Have Another having the better cruising speed of the two. Union Rags has a decent stamina pedigree, and is a superbly talented individual with a definite shot, while Paynter has a very good stamina pedigree, and has the speed to go all the way on the engine. My long shot is Five Sixteen. Excellent stamina influences, and enough speed to stay relatively close early.
In the last 10 Belmont runnings only 3 runners have won from far back, 1 won gate to wire, and 6 came from mid pack or closer. Of all the winners, only Summer Bird was as much as 5 lengths behind at the 10 furlong marker. Most of the rest were on the lead by that time, or were no more than 1.5 lengths behind.
If Paynter gets away with an uncontested lead (like Da Tara) he could steal it all. I’ll Have Another is the one to beat. He shouldn’t have any trouble with the additional yardage. Dullahan with be closing late and just might get there.
Bill
The Belmont
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Bill from WA
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The Belmont
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.
Langston Hughes
Langston Hughes
Seems to me Alpha has a superior long distance pedigree:
AP Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Fappiano, Nijinsky, Northern Dancer.
Add Alydar, Bold Ruler, Raise A Native, Key to the Mint etc and you have a horse that ought to relish the 12f at Belmont, assuming he can get his head into the game -- he appears to have some behavioral issues. I believe the inherent physical talent is there, but perhaps not the maturity or mental ... yet.
AP Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, Fappiano, Nijinsky, Northern Dancer.
Add Alydar, Bold Ruler, Raise A Native, Key to the Mint etc and you have a horse that ought to relish the 12f at Belmont, assuming he can get his head into the game -- he appears to have some behavioral issues. I believe the inherent physical talent is there, but perhaps not the maturity or mental ... yet.
I think you have it pretty much nailed Bill, and when looking at Paynter you must ask yourself why would Baffert run him in the GR1 SA Derby after a first out hand ride maiden win. He ran a credible 4th. He comes into the Belmont with a hand ride win on Preakness day at Pimlico, a race in which he ran a slightly faster mile than Bodemiester posted in the Preakness later in the day. I agree that he should play catch me if you can, and if left alone he could be long gone. I also think that a lot of people are misjudging Union Rags' lack of winning, but he does have excuses, and I have always liked him but in the end I believe I'll Have Another has a big, big chance to add the Belmont to his list of accomplishments. Good luck and safe return to all of you and all of them.
DDT
DDT
The Belmont
While I want to remain hopeful of a Triple Crown, I keep looking at the names of recent Belmont winners....Sarava, Da Tara, Birdstone, Summer Bird and Drosselmeyer and the hope seems more dim. And when I look at the horses that the aforementioned beat, the hope grows even more dim.
Belmont Stakes ~ June 8, 2012
In this year's three year old crop of all comers in Grade 1, there are no rabbits remaining who can run on the lead for 10 much less 12 furlongs. In the first two jewels, IHA ran wide for 15 of the 19.5 furlongs, so being parked outside is a non issue. Barring a racing mishap or a blatant attempt to box him down on the rail (post positions are not established at this writing) while establishing fractions that would inhibit a snail, he should have an unencumbered trip and win in the Big Apple as if it were a walkover. Bring on all the fresh newcomers who aspire to upset him, none of which will be acknowledged at the Eclipse Award Ceremonies where I'll Have Another will be honored as the 2012 Triple Crown Winner and Horse of the Year.