Violence is first off the Derby Trail

[TJ]

He fractured a sesamoid in his right fore....just about as bad an injury as a horse could get. TJ

[bdw0617]

gulfstream speedway strikes again

i knew there woudl be some back lash from that stupidly fast pace on that track.

whoever was the front runner in that race i hope he is going to be fine as well

[Cree]

Well, that's that.
He looks like a big beast of a horse that pounded hard on himself, don't know if that makes an impact on a sesamoid injury.

Not that Pletcher needs to worry, he's got all sorts of 3-year-olds to race. He goes through these horses like I go through cups of coffee.

[zinn21]

What a shame. Such a talented horse. He's basically been in training since last spring. Although he has had some time between races he was still working. A big colt like him needed at least 60 days off with no pounding so his whole frame could strengthen. Oh well..

[ageecee]

Is anyone surprised? When you push these 2 yr olds to make the Derby this is what happens. He only had 5 works in a span of 29 days thats not too much is it?

[erhrdt3]

Is anyone surprised? When you push these 2 yr olds to make the Derby this is what happens. He only had 5 works in a span of 29 days thats not too much is it?

Ageecee, you took the words right out of my mouth. I just cannot imagine the hard racing these 'trainers' are putting on still forming 2 year old bones! When are they going to get it through their thick heads that this is why so many 3 years olds are washed up and DONE, one way or the other at only 3? When are they going to realize that is why we don't have Triple Crown winners anymore, we don't even have horses that can handle all three races most of the time.
With the fragility of this "new style" TB, as opposed to what there used to be, they are going to have to stop the Triple Crown as it was, or if they truly want a superstar again, make it for 4 year olds. If you will notice, the horses that are 5 and up do their best racing and they are mainly geldings because the colts, if well pedigreed, have already been whisked away to the 'shed' and the fillies are already being turned into broodmares.

We have waited until age 4 for ours to even see the training track. Luckily my horses co-owner whos been in the business for years as a trainer, feels the same way. We would rather have safety in our horses as opposed to what happened to Ruffian and now Violence.

Does anyone know if he is going to make it? I hope?

They need to stop also the top 20 of horses getting in by earnings; by doing that they are dangling the carrot in front of the nose of the much too young horse at age 2 to run its bones into the ground and the owners to keep on letting it happen.

This is a shame.

[pfrsue]

They need to stop also the top 20 of horses getting in by earnings; by doing that they are dangling the carrot in front of the nose of the much too young horse at age 2 to run its bones into the ground and the owners to keep on letting it happen.

They did stop it. It's a point system this year. Very few points for the two year old races at that.

Besides, aren't you the one who was rooting for Orb to win? Why root for horses in these Derby prep races when you think the system endangers them?

[bdw0617]

Is anyone surprised? When you push these 2 yr olds to make the Derby this is what happens. He only had 5 works in a span of 29 days thats not too much is it?

Ageecee, you took the words right out of my mouth. I just cannot imagine the hard racing these 'trainers' are putting on still forming 2 year old bones! When are they going to get it through their thick heads that this is why so many 3 years olds are washed up and DONE, one way or the other at only 3? When are they going to realize that is why we don't have Triple Crown winners anymore, we don't even have horses that can handle all three races most of the time.
With the fragility of this "new style" TB, as opposed to what there used to be, they are going to have to stop the Triple Crown as it was, or if they truly want a superstar again, make it for 4 year olds. If you will notice, the horses that are 5 and up do their best racing and they are mainly geldings because the colts, if well pedigreed, have already been whisked away to the 'shed' and the fillies are already being turned into broodmares.

We have waited until age 4 for ours to even see the training track. Luckily my horses co-owner whos been in the business for years as a trainer, feels the same way. We would rather have safety in our horses as opposed to what happened to Ruffian and now Violence.

Does anyone know if he is going to make it? I hope?

They need to stop also the top 20 of horses getting in by earnings; by doing that they are dangling the carrot in front of the nose of the much too young horse at age 2 to run its bones into the ground and the owners to keep on letting it happen.

This is a shame.

I believe the track itself has more to do with the results than the training. Not defending pletcher by a ny stretch but as you know i'm not a fan of gulfstream park on big 3YO days the track is always a tad bit too hard for my liking, so you can get those big/fast times which bring big/fast speed figures, and in the process, throws horses into the grinder. horses ralrey come out of gulfstream just as good as they went in at least 3YO's

in particlar horses with no foundtion. calder to gulfstream horses tend to do okay as well as tampa bay to gulfsteam. but coming off a 2YO campaign to gulfstream

damn i just had an idea hold on.


i just did about 10 mins of research so if i'm wrong don't kill me but i don't think i am.. ONE horse since 2007 has won a dirt 3YO prep race and actually finished the year without being injured. That one horse is Nobiz like Shobiz.

I don't think that's a coincidence.

[Whirlaway]

Gotta remember us racing fans wanted speed, the breeders gave it to us and the trainers gotta work with what the breeders give em'. Sure the fragility, sure the track, but surely, it is the racing fans, tiz us, who is to blame. Thinkin' if us racin' fans called for less speed and more stoutness and stamina, no doubt the breeders would respond ( or would they?)

Ahhhh, but alas and sadly . . . . another one bites the dust. That one there had Derby written all over him, particularly when he chased down that 1:08.4, led, fought back and almost got it and he wasn't as of yet dead fit - forgot to mention he was high weight. Gosh darn it, I wanted to see him and Shanghai lock horns.

They'll be another, no doubt.

[stancaris]

12 Derby winners over the last 15 years have broke their maiden in Sept or later

I''ll Have Another broke his maiden on July 3rd.
Animal Kingdom broke his maiden on Oct 23rd
Super Saver broke his maiden on Sept 11th
Mine That Bird broke his maiden on Aug 4th
Big Brown broke his maiden Sept 3rd
Street Sense broke his maiden Aug 19th
Barbaro broke his maiden Oct 4th
Smarty Jones broke his maiden Nov 9th
Funny Cide broke his maiden Sept 8
War Emblem broke his maiden Oct 4
Monarchos broke his maiden Jan 13th
Fusaichi Pegasus broke his maiden Jan 2nd
Charismatic broke his maiden Nov 21st
Real Quiet broke his maiden Oct 18

Summary: In the last 15 years there were 12 Derby winners that broke their maiden in September or Later of their 2 year old season or even in January at the age of 3 (Monarchos). 80% winners broke maiden in Sept or later

Horses like Violence who broke his maiden in August are less likely to win the roses based on the above statistic. The above is a recent trend and shows us how these early developing 2 year olds are much more likely to be too speedy, not durable, and prone to set backs.

Late developing horses like Orb are more likely to win the roses than the speed merchants like Violence and Shanghai Bobby who broke his maiden in April. When was the last time you saw a Derby winner that broke his maiden in April? You probably have to go back to the 1970s to find such a mammal.

Main point: Precocious youngsters in the last 15 years are not likely to win the roses. The Derby goes to late developing horses in 12 of the last 15 years.

Shanghai Bobby is just not a likely candidate. He developed much too early and that usually indicates too much speed and not enough stamina based upon the above data over the last 15 years.

Naturally there are exceptions to every rule but history supports this view that early speedsters are less likely to win the roses. Since 1984 when the first BC Juvenile was run we find ONLY one Juvenile Champion in the winners circle of the Derby and that was Street Sense. Only 1 in the last 28 years. Of course many Juvenile champions never even raced in the Derby which is further evidence that early speedsters are just not likely to win the roses in recent times.

Back in the 70s it was very different and 2 year old champions like Secretariat, Riva Ridge, Spectacular Bid, Affirmed, Seattle Slew all won the roses after being voted 2 year old champs. They don't build them like that any more. And all of these mammals were Phalaris/Nonphalaris. More than 80% of todays runners are Phalaris/Phalaris.

[ageecee]

5 works in 29 days people? You swear Pletcher was Asmussen or Lukas they way he worked this colt.

[TJ]

5 works in 29 days people? You swear Pletcher was Asmussen or Lukas they way he worked this colt.

Hi agee,
His last winning race was on 12/15/12. He was given some time off then started back 4 weeks later working an easy 1/2 in 50.4 breezing. A week later a faster 1/2 in 48 breezing....another week later an easy 5/8ths in 1:02.2 breezing....then two faster 5/8th's a week later in 1:01 B and another week later 5/8ths in 1:00.2 breezing. He gradually asked his horse for speed....a slow 1/2 then a faster 1/2. A slow 5/8ths then two faster 5/8ths....after all he is training the horse to run in a Graded Stakes going two turns off a 2 1/2 month layoff?? There was nothing wrong with his work schedule...especially considering he is a graded stakes winner, capable of going a 1/2 in 45 or 5/8ths in 58....so none of his works were in any way more than he could handle. Unfortunately, race horses break down....it's a sad fact. This horse was too game for his own good...if he was an ordinary horse he would have pulled himself up like the pacesetter did after those fast fractions. This horse ran his eyeballs out, gave it all he had, even though he had to be tired after 3/4's in 1:08.4....never gave up and fought gamely to the wire...fast fractions and getting tired, that's when a good horse gets hurt. For the record, his 5 works were over 35 days....not 29, 1/20/13--2/17/13. TJ

[ageecee]

Ok im not a math scholar by any means but from Jan 20 to Feb 17th is 29 days in my book.

And we dont know if the horse had a work that wasnt an official work before the Jan 20th work

[erhrdt3]

ugh just wrote a good reply and lost the thing.

First of all, I like Orb because he is related to my all time favorite horse, Ruffian. Of course I am going to go for the Janney horse.

The TB's of today are more fragile than those of the seventies and even eighties and sooner.

The greedy owners and trainers are beating the living hell out of our of two year old youngsters, and by the time they get to the Triple Crown races, they are teetering on the edge already. When is the last time we had a TC winner? 1978. These are a different type of horses that are being put out on the track, and those that run in the Derby do not run in the Preakness or Belmont together, most run in one if they even make it that far. Is Violence even going to survive this?

The point system needs to start on the 3 year old year! The horses come first, no matter what these greedy folks who are involved with them think.

I would LOVE to see these races made for 4 year olds instead in this day and age. We would get better quality of racing, the horses would be more ready to go, and I am not saying 4 year olds don't break down, they do, but the liklliness of it happeng is lower.

Look at Barbaro, wasn't he very lightly raced in his 3 year old year before he won the Derby in the most lengths to date? I may be wrong, I'm asking, and he even broke down, the poor boy..

Its time for the trainers and owners to hold their greediness and let the horses grow and mature a bit before they run the living hell out of them at only 2 years of age. This is just my opinion but its happening more and more.

Everyone, most everyone knows how much I loved Ruffian. She ran TOO MANY 2 year old races! Yes! If she was allowed to mature more, who knows if she would have broken down?! The same thing happened to Black Gold many years ago.

It's time for things to change in this sport, it has a black eye and its getting darker.

[TJ]

Ok im not a math scholar by any means but from Jan 20 to Feb 17th is 29 days in my book.

And we dont know if the horse had a work that wasnt an official work before the Jan 20th work

Hi agee,
My bad....guess I'm no math scholar either:>) but the horse had 5 works and a 7 days rest between each work....and he didn't have any other unpublished works during that time. TJ