Sunland Derby

TJ · Postby TJ » Thu Mar 21, 2013 5:29 am

Eleventh Race Approx Post Time: 5:40
The 11th Running of the Sunland Derby(Gr3)
$800,000 Guaranteed
$1 Daily Double /$1 Exacta /Trifecta /$.10 Superfecta/.50 Super Hi 5
Purse $800,000. 1 1/8 Miles. Stakes. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.
1 Just Win Baby L Quinonez, A 122
2 Abraham L Velazquez, J 122
3 Stormdriver L Eikleberry, R 122
4 Shakin It Up L Flores, D 122
5 Saint Prado L Bejarano, R 122
6 Dry Summer L Madeira, C 122
7 Govenor Charlie L Garcia, M 122
8 Mudflats L Maldonado, E 122
9 Show Some Magic L Contreras, L 122

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Thu Mar 21, 2013 11:16 am

I like Stormdriver here. Superfecta/Trifecta box: Stormdriver, Dry Summer, Abraham, and Just Win Baby. (Mudflats might sneak in here as well).

jagger · Postby **jagger** » Thu Mar 21, 2013 7:39 pm

Hoping for an exception to your method on this one, Bill, and I know it's a stretch....Shakin It Up.

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Thu Mar 21, 2013 11:17 pm

Hi Jagger

He's a really nice horse. I just have concerns as to distance limitations.
He certainly seems to have enough talent to outrun his pedigree. I think he will be a very good sprinter/miler type moving forward, however, he might make me look like a dumb-ass on Saturday. Good luck to you.

Best always,

Bill

jagger · Postby **jagger** » Fri Mar 22, 2013 5:18 am

Always showing your class, Bill

I'm heartened by the fact that I recognize the reality that your assessment is likely dead on...meaning that I am showing progress in understanding the rudiments of your method. And, if he does outrun his pedigree, you surely will not be seen, by me anyway, as a dumbass as there are exceptions to every rule and handicapping horseracing is most certainly, NOT exempt.

dublino · Postby **dublino** » Fri Mar 22, 2013 5:34 am

1 Abraham
2 Dry Summer
3 Shakin it up

TJ · Postby TJ » Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:13 pm

Bill from WA wrote:Hi Jagger

He's a really nice horse. I just have concerns as to distance limitations.
He certainly seems to have enough talent to outrun his pedigree. I think he will be a very good sprinter/miler type moving forward, however, he might make me look like a dumb-ass on Saturday. Good luck to you.

Best always,

Bill

Hi Bill,
You and dumb ass will never compute with this forum's member's. Your work is most appreciated. My crow is still on ice....it's just a matter of time:>) TJ

jagger · Postby **jagger** » Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:23 pm

What TJ said

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:30 pm

Thanks jagger and tj. I have had a great time on this board over the years, and have sponged up a lot useful information from the very knowledgeable participants of this forum (including both of you). Triple Crown season is one of my favorite times of the year, and the friendly discourse that takes place here has certainly been a pleasure for a long time.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Fri Mar 22, 2013 3:16 pm

is this a points race this year?

TJ · Postby TJ » Fri Mar 22, 2013 3:23 pm

bdw0617 wrote:is this a points race this year?

Hi bdw,
85 points total across the board....all the 3YO races I post are Derby qualifying prep races. TJ

karenkarenn · Postby **karenkarenn** » Fri Mar 22, 2013 6:04 pm

Gov Charlie

ZiaLand · Postby **ZiaLand** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 4:00 pm

Just chiming in so I get notifications about posts to this thread, but as I said in another forum, I'm liking Shakin It Up and Govenor Charlie, too.

(Though Bill isn't wrong very often.)

jagger · Postby **jagger** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 5:30 pm

This actually might be a little difficult for Bill as there are quite a few with credentials to get 9F. Unfortunately, I think if either Shakin It Up or Govenor Charlie wins it will be because they outran their pedigree....which DOES happen from time to time. My prediction is that Shakin It Up will be mid pack through 6F before he makes a move and may actually gain the lead before losing it in the last furlong.

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Sun Mar 24, 2013 5:26 pm

Congrats zialand and karenkaren. Govenor Charlie made me a believer. I was super impressed at this guys talent. Midnight Lute might be one of those sprinters that sires stamina (The super filly Midnight Lucky is another example). Govenor Charlie traces to the conduit mare Chit Chat, so he hails from the same family as Grindstone (Kentucky Derby), Arts and Letters and Pass Catcher (Belmont Stakes), Golden Bri (CCA Oaks), and At Talag (Melbourne Cup). My computation didn't delve deep enough, and focused too much on the sprinters contributions close up in the pedigree. My 33-1 shot ran a decent race, but was no match for the talent this colt displayed today. Baffert is a master at getting a runner in shape to go long. Govenor Charlie might be the first runner with a D stamina rating to win the big one, although the competition will be getting a lot tougher as we move forward.
That extra 8th of a mile in the Derby will separate the men from the boys.
Getting interesting.