Danza...

[bdw0617]

man i don't even know what to say. I don't even like who's the boss. I mean you can't handicap that.

Do you think he's legit?

[Cree]

His PPs just make me think he ran his big race yesterday. He ran huge. I watched this race 3 times, and he just had the sweet spot sitting behind the speed, the rail opened up and he zipped through there. I think he ran strong and his style suits the Derby...if he can get through on the rail. But will he have enough left in the tank down the Churchill stretch? I honestly don't think he can get 10 furlongs.
But, what the heck was he doing all spring??? Where did THAT come from???

[bdw0617]

yeah he's going to beat me. reminds me of sinister minister in the blue grass. i chased that blue grass race for like another year lol.

[TJ]

Every once in a while we see one like this...they show up late to the party and throw off our plan:>) I wouldn't disregard this colts performance. I posted these comments below about Danza in the handicapping section....he could bounce or he could be the Derby winner? He's not to be taken lightly in my opinion. TJ

Hi Bill,
Danza was one of Pletcher's best kept secrets:>) He did run a nice race and that field wasn't too shabby. Danza's 1/2 brother Majestic Harbor is having his best year ever (at age 6) after being sent to California (SA). He ran 2nd in the GR II San Pascual, 4th in the GR II San Antonio Stakes, then won the first stakes race of his career going 1 1/2 miles in the GR III Tokyo City Cup Stakes. TJ

Danza received a 102 beyer in his stunning Arkansas Derby performance. It's even more impressive when compared to Will Take Charge' win in the Oaklawn Handicap just a race before, who received a 103 beyer after running his mile and an eighth in 1:49.55. Danza's time for the 1 1/8th miles was 1:49.68 seconds....13/100's of a second slower then one of the top handicap horses in the country. Pletcher used this prep before with Super Saver, who went on to win the Derby after his Arkansas Derby win. Race replay below. TJ
http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?tra ... ountry=USA

[bdw0617]

1. using will take charge as a barometer is not good as that was the worst race i've seen him run in probably a year even though he won. If he ran staging a field that well. was good. he would not have hit the board yesterday. He looked tired and sluggish the entire race

2. that arkansas derby field was nothing to write home about. I liked the horse I talked up (yes i'm trying to avoid butchering the spelling lol) but given that he was not what i thought he was, at least that day, there was nothing behind him. Not the best Arkansas crop of horses this year.

3. Even If I gave you the fact that this was a legit effort, Danza was all out and going 102 and Chrome was cantering home with a 107 beyer. I'm not a beyer guy but i use those numbers to suggest that even if the race was legit, it's still does not answer the questoin is he good enough to beat California Chrome.

There is only one way I see California chrome losing the kentucky derby and that is if he doesn't take to the track. that's the only issue I see. if he takes to the track, the rest of the field is running for 2nd. And that is a concern because horses going from santa anita don't automatically transfer to Churchill like say, oaklawn does.


in a way I wish they would ahve sent california chrome to the Arkansas derby. if chrome would have won the Arkansas derby i would have very well emptied my savings account in the Kentucky derby

[TJ]

I didn't know we were talking about California Chrome, thought it said Danza?? My opinion of Danza's race is what it is....he can bounce to the moon when he runs back....or he could continue to improve. His race was impressive, in my opinion. My error concerning Super Saver, he was 2nd in the Arkansas Derby then went on to win the Derby. Bodemeister also used the race as a springboard into a super derby run? The comparison between the Oaklawn Handicap and The Arkansas Derby is a valid one. Anytime you can compare a top handicap horse against a 3YO raw time wise, it helps gauge the quality of the race. But if you think Will Take Charge had an off day....I'll give you that. TJ

[Cree]

The thing about Danza is...did Pletcher even have a clue he would run like that? I don't think I heard him say a word about him. Pletcher is sneaky, he's been running and talking about his other 40+ Derby prospects, and Danza just kind of snuck in and ran big. His works weren't even that fast.
I agree with bdw that the Arkansas Derby wasn't the toughest of races, but they can only run against what is entered in the race, right? Besides Hoppertunty and Candy Boy, the rest of the SA Derby wasn't exactly the greatest either.
This is one strange Derby this year.

[TJ]

The question was posed if Danza is legit. I think he is and it's OK if others think he isn't. I think his race was legit (especially after being compared to Will Take Charge's race). He also beat Bayern who was held in high regard by Baffert and others (Bayern=Big Brown). That being said, anyone can see how hard it will be for him to repeat that strong effort without a bounce. If he is on the rise...he could improve in the Derby, but that still doesn't mean he'll win the Derby. The Derby is very competitive this year and if you don't look past your nose, Ray Charles could see California Chrome looks unbeatable and very well may be? That being said he has his cross to bear with a switch to a slower more tiring track and that extra 1/8th mile in no mans land:>). Handicapping the Derby will be as exciting as the Derby itself. More interesting will be the Preakness when those shut out of the Derby show up to contest the Derby winner. I'm thinking a fresh Social Inclusion could blow the doors off the field in the Preakness? TJ
Here's what Joe Bravo had to say about his win:
"That was a pretty great effort,"...Todd was pretty high on the horse and he told me this morning that he was going to be fresh so don't take anything away from him. Try to save as much (ground) as you can and let him run his race. It was textbook, just textbook. Everything unfolded like a dream."

[Bill from WA]

I like Danza, and his sire, but on a closer examination of his pedigree, I think he might have distance limitations. He handled the 9 furlongs easily and may (or may not) improve off that race. That extra furlong can be a difference maker.
I hope he does well, but I have questions.

Bill