No chance in The Preakness Stakes

[jagger]

I identified 8 horses in the field of 19 at the Kentucky Derby as having NO chance of winning the Derby. These horses finished 5th, 6th, 9th, 10th, 16th, 17th, 18th and 19th. The following are horses that I have deemed as having NO chance of winning The Preakness Stakes, using my proprietary method. : Pable Del Monte, Ride on Curlin, Ring Weekend and Ria Antonia.

Good luck to all in your wagering endeavors.

[Affirmed1]

Jagger, my newly tweaked and upgraded proprietary algorithm indicates that the Preakness victor will be Ride on Curlin, one of the beasts that you feel has no shot. I think your proprietary method got lucky in the Derby and my algorithm just needed some fine-tuning.

[Affirmed1]

P.S. Jagger- nobody lives in Illinois.

[jagger]

I'll admit to a bit of luck.....perhaps. But, Ride on Curlin has NO chance of winning. The best I could do.....a remote chance of a show...but doubt that even. He won't be in any of my exotics, that's for sure.

Actually, I wish fewer lived in Illinois.

I had to modify, not upgrade, my proprietary method for the slight change in distance.

Seriously, you actually think you will be putting ROC in your exotics? Are you liking Social Inclusion? I'm all over him.

[hpkingjr]

Watch the ride Calvin gives the filly. If he has any horse he will be super aggressive. He hated the public spanking he received for his Derby ride.

[Cree]

SHE was not the horse to ride aggressively to the front, that is not her best running style. I shake my head at the connections of that filly.

[jagger]

Boy.....you sure called that, Pat. Agree with Cree. Surprised that Calvin was so influenced by the public.

[charlie]

Ride on Curlin would have won a lot of past Preaknessi.

[bdw0617]

Good Call.

REally though, I don't fault Calvin here

It's kinda like in the movie Seabiscuit where they are all watching War Admerial from the bushes and they say look the only way we're going to beat this horse is to break first, because if that thing shakes lose we won't catch him.

That's how you really have to look at CC at this point. He's too GOOD to catch. you 're not going to 'CATCH" cc. At least none in this crop are.

There are only 2 ways that I see him getting beat


1. A horse shakes lose from him on the lead and he doesn't have the juice to catch up. not likely, but more likely than catching him from behind. However fst you are running to catch him he can just go a gear higher. It's not gonna work. There are no Zenyatta's or Sea The Stars in this crop lol

2. He gets boxed in in (the most likely way he loses). He doesn't like being boxed in but he's just so push button he can create his own racing luck.


I would rather Calvin do what he did than try to come from the clouds, and run around the track for a 4th-6th place finish. It's the same thing Gary Stevens did with Oxbow last year, exepct it worked then and it didn't work now.

[Cree]

I completely disagree. Borel was riding her like she was another horse, like another filly named Rachel Alexandra. Nowhere in previous races has Ria Antonia run up front and nowhere has she won up front.
She had no business being in that race, and Borel put an exclamation point on that. Her finishing last place should (hopefully) remind the owner that he really does not know what he is talking about.

[jagger]

I completely disagree. Borel was riding her like she was another horse, like another filly named Rachel Alexandra. Nowhere in previous races has Ria Antonia run up front and nowhere has she won up front.
She had no business being in that race, and Borel put an exclamation point on that. Her finishing last place should (hopefully) remind the owner that he really does not know what he is talking about.

Perfectly said.

[jagger]

And....I don't think we have to worry that his owners will be pulling out the day before the Belmont, alleging some bogus injury and selling him to those that slaughtered Ferdinand and brought you Pearl Harbor.

[bdw0617]

Agree to Disagree. IF I were a jockey in this race, I would have done exactly what Borel did regardless of what my horses's running style was because that's the only possible chance you have to beat CC on his game at this point.

I mean we are arguing over nothing he wasn't going to win regardless of what he did, but you to try things. That's what Borel did.


And I assure you he did not think "he was on another filly" he did an interview with NBC earlier in the day where they asked him about the 2 and he pretty much shut that down and said that she (rachel) Was a once in a lifetime filly.

[Cree]

I respectfully disagree (again).
In hindsight, the only horse that had a chance of beating California Chrome, and ran a creditable 2nd, was Ride On Curlin. He dropped back to 2nd to last and made a huge move on the turn but couldn't get to CC in the stretch.
I still think she had no business being in the race, but I think she had a better chance of finishing better than a tired 30 lengths back by dropping back to mid-pack and making a run. Borel took her out of her game, that was a terrible decision on his part.
I'm just glad he took care of her and let her finish up.

On another note, the two other Derby starters (General A Rod and Ride On Curlin) both ran well in defeat, and I think it was a good decision to send them to this race.

[bdw0617]

I've looked at that stretch drive about 30 times. Saying R.O.C had a chance to beat CC is like saying Pleasantly perfect had a chance to beat ghostzapper in the 2005 Breeders Cup Classic just beucase he came in 2nd. Look at the distance that CC puts between him and R.O.C once he knows that he's there. That race was more impressive than his Derby by leaps and bounds. He basically rebroke twice in the stretch. He put away Social Inclusion, for a second thought he was home free, Vic sees R.O.D coming from the clouds, hits him 2-3 times and he rebreaks again, then is hand ridden home.