FOS wrote:What are your thoughts on Spanish Chestnuts speedy fractions...don't you agree that the decision to send him (as a rabbit) had a profound affect on the results and final time? He had to have helped Giacomo and Afleet Alex...don't you think?
I wouldn't say "profound" and I don't think it had much effect on the overall final time either.
I'd said a couple of days ago that I was anticipating a slow final time and slow speed figures, so I wasn't surprised in that regard at least.
As for the order of finish... I'd say the size of the field had more to do with it than the rabbit. Most GOOD riders will ignore a confirmed rabbit and the idea of putting him in there simply to establish an "honest" pace was ridiculous since it's not like he was the only speed in the race.
Everyone is making comments about Bellamy Road chasing Spanish Chestnut, but the reality is that he really wasn't .. not like it's being played anyway.
Spanish Chestnut ran the first 1/4 in 22.28 and at that call, Bellamy was 3rd, about a length and a half back ... making his opening quarter in about 22 and 3/5 ... fast, but not torrid.
Spanish Chestnut got to the half in 45.38 and Bellamy found himself 5th at that point, almost 5 lengths back ... making his half in about 46. Again, fast, but not unreasonably so.
The 6f mark flew by at 1:09.59 and Bellamy was still 5th, about 2.5 back making his half in about 1:10.
The mile split was 1:35.88 and Bellamy was right on top of that.
Bellamy finished up about 7.5 lengths back which puts him about 1 1/3 seconds behind the winner (for a final of about 2:03 .. yeah that's slow), but basically all of that means he was running each quarter until the last in about 23 (almost 24) seconds ... which is fast but had he run the last quarter in 24 instead of 27, he'd have won and been on the high side of the the 2:00 mark (probably closer to 2:01), which is still fast but not unreasonably so.
He looked tired in the stretch, but I'm attributing that more to his being hyped up because of all the excitement of being surrounded by so many horses and the fact that he was at least 5 wide for most of the race. If anything, Bellamy lost because he moved too soon, not because he was going too fast. He's got a fairly high 'cruising' speed, but people keep forgetting that he won his debut from off the pace. He CAN rate when he's kept calm ... the amount of horses/people there yesterday was just too much for him.
Had he not moved at the mile and stayed where he was until they finished the turn, he'd have been a lot closer and might have even won. Fact is, I saw that move at the mile and knew it was over right then .. at that point, I just started scanning the back to see who was going to get everyone ... and STILL didn't see Giacomo until almost the wire.
I saw Alex move late, and really thought his class and speed was going to carry him home .. he just ran out of ground.
I am not one of these people who is going to complain that the field needs to be reduced to only what would fit in the main gate, but I do think that a field that large is too big for Churchill to handle and allow everyone a fair chance to run their race. I think Belmont with its huge turns is more conducive to those large fields than Churchill is.
Basically, I think that race unfolded like it did because there were 20 horses in the race all looking for the same spot on the track so the traffic was too much for most of them to overcome, not because of some rabbit that most of them ignored in the first place.
In Bellamy's case, he reminds me a bit of Easy Goer .. and EG hated Churchill too, especially when he had horses close to him that prevented him from extending his stride all the way.
no time to watch anything before after it 
Did I really just say that? hmmmm.. Ok if he doesn't I will gladly put my foot back into my mouth 
.. Come off it FOS, Jones ran 2:04 on a SLOPPY track. That isn't at all comparable to Giacomo crawling home in 2:02 on a FAST track.
