GSV study of an entire race meet [Stampede Park]

[George William Smith]

Much thanks for all the help I received from AP. Without him, I could never have persisted long enough [I have a short attention span], to gather the following information. AP is an amazing man! Period!! Not only did my GSV scores generate a profit to win using my GSV betting rules, but also a profit to place and show while betting every race. Interestingly, I may have been one of the last ones to believe that my GSV scores were valid not only for breeding, but also for betting. Below is a short summary of some of my findings. Data is available on my web site for independent review. I can tell you that with all the work I gave AP to do, he would not have had time to get the data to conform to what we wished to find. I will post a revised set of GSV Betting Rules that were modelled after the Stampede Results that I am now using to bet other tracks, but I will also keep up on the web site the original GSV Betting Rules that were not modelled. Modelling is fitting the data to get positive results. Now to get back to being able to do my breeding research for paying clients. My visa demands it after my Belmont Stakes vacation.

Stampede Park, Calgary, Alberta, Canada Thoroughbred Genetic Strength Value [GSV] Study

*Thanks go to Adrian Parry [AP] for researching the GSV Scores used in this study.



Race Meet: April 1 – June 19th , 2005

Distances

* 3.5 furlongs [2yo maidens][2 races]
* 4 furlongs [April 1-April 10th only][44 races]
* 6 furlongs [621 races]
* 8 furlongs [217 races]
* 8.5 furlongs [45 races]

Runners

* In 929 races, 2932 horses competed [many horses competed in multiple races]

* 941 different runners competed in the race meet with an average GSV of 59.81
* 941 different runners averaged $38,981.36 in lifetime earnings
* 884 different runners raced at 6 furlongs and up
* 854 different horses had a previous start prior to the end of the meet

GSV average scores by racing distance [average GSV score of winners in brackets]

* 4 furlongs = 59.50 [58.39]
* 6 furlongs = 59.62 [59.81]
* 8 furlongs = 60.39 [61.61]
* 8.5 furlongs = 61.02 [61.92]

Earnings/Start correlated against GSV scores

* lowest 100 horses by earnings/start had an average GSV of 58.61
* lowest 300 horses by earnings/start had an average GSV of 59.19
* lowest 500 horses by earnings/start had an average GSV of 59.48
* lowest 700 horses by earnings/start had an average GSV of 59.72
* the highest 154 horses by earnings/start had an average GSV of 60.31
* all 854 different horses by earnings/start had an average GSV of 59.83

copyright July 5, 2005, The Matchmaker, all rights reserved

[FOS]

hi George William Smith

Impressive...Congrats.

And welcome back.

Best to you.

Respectfully

[George William Smith]

It seems I have to periodically stand in the corner facing the wall to get my priorities straight. Thanks for the positive comment

[JimbleBrimble]

[quote="George William Smith"]

Stampede Park, Calgary, Alberta, Canada Thoroughbred Genetic Strength Value [GSV] Study

*Thanks go to Adrian Parry [AP] for researching the GSV Scores used in this study.



Race Meet: April 1 – June 19th , 2005

Distances

* 3.5 furlongs [2yo maidens][2 races]
* 4 furlongs [April 1-April 10th only][44 races]
* 6 furlongs [621 races]
* 8 furlongs [217 races]
* 8.5 furlongs [45 races]

Runners

* In 929 races, 2932 horses competed [many horses competed in multiple races]

* 941 different runners competed in the race meet with an average GSV of 59.81
* 941 different runners averaged $38,981.36 in lifetime earnings
* 884 different runners raced at 6 furlongs and up
* 854 different horses had a previous start prior to the end of the meet

GSV average scores by racing distance [average GSV score of winners in brackets]

* 4 furlongs = 59.50 [58.39]
* 6 furlongs = 59.62 [59.81]
* 8 furlongs = 60.39 [61.61]
* 8.5 furlongs = 61.02 [61.92]

Earnings/Start correlated against GSV scores

* lowest 100 horses by earnings/start had an average GSV of 58.61
* lowest 300 horses by earnings/start had an average GSV of 59.19
* lowest 500 horses by earnings/start had an average GSV of 59.48
* lowest 700 horses by earnings/start had an average GSV of 59.72
* the highest 154 horses by earnings/start had an average GSV of 60.31
* all 854 different horses by earnings/start had an average GSV of 59.83

copyright July 5, 2005, The Matchmaker, all rights reserved [/quote]


Exactly where did this data come from?

The implication that there were 929 races is absurd!!!

April has 30 days
May has 31 days
June has 19 days (until closing day June 19)

That is 80 calendar days, and you are implying that there were 11.6 races on average for each calendar day???

Forget the fact that Stampede only races four days per week and that they are often lucky to fill eight races on a card.

Even at an average of 9 races per card stampede would have had to race 103 race days to make 929 races.

I won't even contemplate the rest of your data with a bad start like that.

Is there a hidden interpretation that you're not sharing?

[George William Smith]

Jimble Brimble wrote, "Exactly where did this data come from?

The implication that there were 929 races is absurd!!!

April has 30 days
May has 31 days
June has 19 days (until closing day June 19)

That is 80 calendar days, and you are implying that there were 11.6 races on average for each calendar day???

Forget the fact that Stampede only races four days per week and that they are often lucky to fill eight races on a card.

Even at an average of 9 races per card stampede would have had to race 103 race days to make 929 races.

I won't even contemplate the rest of your data with a bad start like that.

Is there a hidden interpretation that you're not sharing?"

George [Down on knees, grovelling]

I am so pleased that you took the time to read my posting and rightfully, upon reflection, tear it apart, using common sense.

You are absolutely correct. Somehow, not to minimize my error, I arrived at 929 races in the Stampede meet, when In Reality there were only 392 races. I have no idea looking back at the data how I type in 392. Only an idiot could have thought that there were 929. I am that idiot!

If you had the patience and I don't blame you if you concluded the rest of the data was at best a bunch of crap so why waste your time, you could have opened the excel file on my web page and counted the races yourself. The web page is found at:

http://www.members.shaw.ca/thematchmaker/STAMPEDEBETTINGRESULTSA.xls

As to whether the rest of the data is correct, simply open the excel file on your computer and key field the different fields to whatever you are seeking to verify or find that I again made a typo.

I applaud your effort of at least studying the data and finding my glaring error. When I posted it, I expected many to not only read it but also to challenge my findings and/or suggest better ways to use the data in betting studies.

Thanks, Jimble Thrimble. It is an honor to have someone out there challenging stats cause we all know we can prove anything by the way we use stats.

I don't think I had any hidden agenda, we we all interpret things around us with a bias.

Thanks again, George