Afleet Alex Sale
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brogers
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Afleet Alex Sale
Expect to hear something shortly regarding the sale of Afleet Alex. He will retire to a farm in KY and stand for a fee around $75,000. If he can make it back to the races this year the most likely spot is the Perryville at Keeneland
Re: Afleet Alex Sale
brogers wrote:Expect to hear something shortly regarding the sale of Afleet Alex. He will retire to a farm in KY and stand for a fee around $75,000. If he can make it back to the races this year the most likely spot is the Perryville at Keeneland
While I don't question the distance .. The Perryville on the 14th? I doubt it.
Do you have some insight you wish to share with the class
hi brogers
You wrote "Expect to hear something shortly regarding the sale of Afleet Alex. He will retire to a farm in KY and stand for a fee around $75,000."
I hope that you and your camp didn't go out on a limb with the kind of real dollars that might suggest such a stud fee be contemplated.
If the idea is to stand him and require limited outside support I guess anything is possible. But if strong outside commercial support is necessary to fill a significantly large book...I expect that $75k will be a tough bill to fill; without the kind of deals...foal shares...trades etc etc etc that might make it happen.
It seems clear...the market is extremely tough right now and unless observers are looking through rose colored glasses, it also appears that many (too many) sellers are getting all but clobbered at the sales.
Getting back to Alex...I expect that even his pedigree might be a difficult sell at such a number. His sire Northern Afleet is a wonderful little horse but is still a son of Afleet (although a nice sire, arguably not exactly a name that draws much in the way of high praise from many). And in the for what it's worth category...is it correct that AA's dam went thru the ring for $5,000 as a 2-yo in training...hmmm (just a little piece of trivia possibly worthy of some consideration).
brogers...how does Afleet Alex stand up to physical scrutiny in general...and to his full-brother Unforgettable Max?
Don't get me wrong...I like Afleet Alex very much as a race horse...but an initial stud fee of $75,000...OOUUCCCHHHH. I expect that at those kind of numbers...probably team Alex is retaining a BIG portion of the horse.
But who knows...maybe Jess Jackson (who apparently has his dam) is just going to buy Alex and add him to his expanding collection (like fine wines). Or maybe Coolmore will trade two shares in Giant's Causeway (said tongue in cheek of course) for half of Alex.
You might agree...the market is getting tougher by the day (recently anyway) and confidence is being tested. I wish all of Alex's connections (new and old alike) all the luck. But $75k...OUCH...OUCH again.
That being said...what's the deal with Northern Afleet for 2006? I suggest he was a bargain at $12,500 and certainly worth a lot more.
Respectfully
You wrote "Expect to hear something shortly regarding the sale of Afleet Alex. He will retire to a farm in KY and stand for a fee around $75,000."
I hope that you and your camp didn't go out on a limb with the kind of real dollars that might suggest such a stud fee be contemplated.
If the idea is to stand him and require limited outside support I guess anything is possible. But if strong outside commercial support is necessary to fill a significantly large book...I expect that $75k will be a tough bill to fill; without the kind of deals...foal shares...trades etc etc etc that might make it happen.
It seems clear...the market is extremely tough right now and unless observers are looking through rose colored glasses, it also appears that many (too many) sellers are getting all but clobbered at the sales.
Getting back to Alex...I expect that even his pedigree might be a difficult sell at such a number. His sire Northern Afleet is a wonderful little horse but is still a son of Afleet (although a nice sire, arguably not exactly a name that draws much in the way of high praise from many). And in the for what it's worth category...is it correct that AA's dam went thru the ring for $5,000 as a 2-yo in training...hmmm (just a little piece of trivia possibly worthy of some consideration).
brogers...how does Afleet Alex stand up to physical scrutiny in general...and to his full-brother Unforgettable Max?
Don't get me wrong...I like Afleet Alex very much as a race horse...but an initial stud fee of $75,000...OOUUCCCHHHH. I expect that at those kind of numbers...probably team Alex is retaining a BIG portion of the horse.
But who knows...maybe Jess Jackson (who apparently has his dam) is just going to buy Alex and add him to his expanding collection (like fine wines). Or maybe Coolmore will trade two shares in Giant's Causeway (said tongue in cheek of course) for half of Alex.
You might agree...the market is getting tougher by the day (recently anyway) and confidence is being tested. I wish all of Alex's connections (new and old alike) all the luck. But $75k...OUCH...OUCH again.
That being said...what's the deal with Northern Afleet for 2006? I suggest he was a bargain at $12,500 and certainly worth a lot more.
Respectfully
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louis finochio
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Northern Afleet was bred to those bottom of the barrel mares, and outbred them a country mile and then some.
AA at $75,000 will get quality mares at that fee, then we can all see how AA will rate as a stallion, A--B-- or C. Time will tell which level AA will fit.
AA at $75,000 will get quality mares at that fee, then we can all see how AA will rate as a stallion, A--B-- or C. Time will tell which level AA will fit.
Those without sin cast the first stone.
Louis Finochio
Louis Finochio
It might throws something new in, as I do find this year, that the most expensive ones, aren,t problably the best racehorses on the dirt.
In europe the same is happening, only divine proportions went through
was injured, at her last race at deauville, which was reported as very bad
holes in it etc.
Maybe the ones who are expensive bred, are held in glasses, in order they
ain,t harmed before selling time. So they have limited changes raising and
growing naturly, gooiing out in rural pastures, groups etc.
In europe the same is happening, only divine proportions went through
was injured, at her last race at deauville, which was reported as very bad
holes in it etc.
Maybe the ones who are expensive bred, are held in glasses, in order they
ain,t harmed before selling time. So they have limited changes raising and
growing naturly, gooiing out in rural pastures, groups etc.
hi BenB
It appears that Montjeu is proving to be something quite special as a sire (probably an understatement) .
Is the significant success he's experiencing (both quantity and quality-wise) a surprise to you? Obviously he stood for E45,000 (arguably nothing to sneeze at) but not exactly the kind of number that suggests that super-star-sire expectations surrounded him. After all...he stands at Coolmore...and E45,000 doesn't really seem to separate him from their core of six stallions (if my calculation is correct) that stood in the E30,000 to E55,000 range (for 2005).
Respectfully
It appears that Montjeu is proving to be something quite special as a sire (probably an understatement) .
Is the significant success he's experiencing (both quantity and quality-wise) a surprise to you? Obviously he stood for E45,000 (arguably nothing to sneeze at) but not exactly the kind of number that suggests that super-star-sire expectations surrounded him. After all...he stands at Coolmore...and E45,000 doesn't really seem to separate him from their core of six stallions (if my calculation is correct) that stood in the E30,000 to E55,000 range (for 2005).
Respectfully
I was thinking, Montjeu, he would throw stock more to real staying distances, and in the need for more time to develop.
If you,re looking at the prizes paid at yearling sales, you,re noticing that
low middle market, was dooiing the race buisiness this year, and not the
upper market. The region that did best was from 30K to 75K English Pounds, when you just look to group races. So why in general failed the upper class, as well in the U.S as in Europe.
I was really surprised, that saddlers wells was almost out of the competion
with his 3 year olds, at the classic distance 12 furlong.
Maybe there are enough of them, by the best sire in Europe, and breeding
seeks something new.
If you,re looking at the prizes paid at yearling sales, you,re noticing that
low middle market, was dooiing the race buisiness this year, and not the
upper market. The region that did best was from 30K to 75K English Pounds, when you just look to group races. So why in general failed the upper class, as well in the U.S as in Europe.
I was really surprised, that saddlers wells was almost out of the competion
with his 3 year olds, at the classic distance 12 furlong.
Maybe there are enough of them, by the best sire in Europe, and breeding
seeks something new.
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George William Smith
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The one and only
If this is the real brogers, I would think the information is real solid. $75,000 seems to be an accurate assessment of his ability plus pedigree limitations.
George
George
hi George William Smith
I don't doubt the info from brogers is probably "solid", but I question how the market will react and/or respond to the stud fee...if in fact it's set at $75,000.
I've heard the number $22mil was a real offer (for Alex). I can understand the number.
At that number I expect that the horse could stand for $50k live (with a bonus season connected to each fractional interest sold...and I expect that at $50k live that Afleet Alex could and would be fully subscribed.
That being said, I expect that setting the stud fee at $75k is a very real possibility, but not a number that I could recommend to most. Those who have a high pain threshold...or are in a money-is-no-object modus operandi might view him differently.
To me, I could justify $50k but I'd have a tough time going beyond that.
Alex aside...I'll find it more interesting to see what Taylor Made does with Northern Afleet for 2006.
Best to you.
Respectfully
I don't doubt the info from brogers is probably "solid", but I question how the market will react and/or respond to the stud fee...if in fact it's set at $75,000.
I've heard the number $22mil was a real offer (for Alex). I can understand the number.
At that number I expect that the horse could stand for $50k live (with a bonus season connected to each fractional interest sold...and I expect that at $50k live that Afleet Alex could and would be fully subscribed.
That being said, I expect that setting the stud fee at $75k is a very real possibility, but not a number that I could recommend to most. Those who have a high pain threshold...or are in a money-is-no-object modus operandi might view him differently.
To me, I could justify $50k but I'd have a tough time going beyond that.
Alex aside...I'll find it more interesting to see what Taylor Made does with Northern Afleet for 2006.
Best to you.
Respectfully
Last edited by FOS on Wed Sep 21, 2005 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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louis finochio
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To Ben and all: A few weeks before the sales the best of the best TB are kept in a small paddock so they wont get injured by running into a fence or step into a hole.
These breeders are not taking any chances that their best quality TB will have a mishap before sale time. An ace in hand is worth more than 2 in the bush.
These breeders are not taking any chances that their best quality TB will have a mishap before sale time. An ace in hand is worth more than 2 in the bush.
Those without sin cast the first stone.
Louis Finochio
Louis Finochio
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Tairaterces
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FOS wrote:hi brogers
You wrote "Expect to hear something shortly regarding the sale of Afleet Alex. He will retire to a farm in KY and stand for a fee around $75,000."
I hope that you and your camp didn't go out on a limb with the kind of real dollars that might suggest such a stud fee be contemplated.
If the idea is to stand him and require limited outside support I guess anything is possible. But if strong outside commercial support is necessary to fill a significantly large book...I expect that $75k will be a tough bill to fill; without the kind of deals...foal shares...trades etc etc etc that might make it happen.
It seems clear...the market is extremely tough right now and unless observers are looking through rose colored glasses, it also appears that many (too many) sellers are getting all but clobbered at the sales.
Getting back to Alex...I expect that even his pedigree might be a difficult sell at such a number. His sire Northern Afleet is a wonderful little horse but is still a son of Afleet (although a nice sire, arguably not exactly a name that draws much in the way of high praise from many). And in the for what it's worth category...is it correct that AA's dam went thru the ring for $5,000 as a 2-yo in training...hmmm (just a little piece of trivia possibly worthy of some consideration).
brogers...how does Afleet Alex stand up to physical scrutiny in general...and to his full-brother Unforgettable Max?
Don't get me wrong...I like Afleet Alex very much as a race horse...but an initial stud fee of $75,000...OOUUCCCHHHH. I expect that at those kind of numbers...probably team Alex is retaining a BIG portion of the horse.
But who knows...maybe Jess Jackson (who apparently has his dam) is just going to buy Alex and add him to his expanding collection (like fine wines). Or maybe Coolmore will trade two shares in Giant's Causeway (said tongue in cheek of course) for half of Alex.
You might agree...the market is getting tougher by the day (recently anyway) and confidence is being tested. I wish all of Alex's connections (new and old alike) all the luck. But $75k...OUCH...OUCH again.
That being said...what's the deal with Northern Afleet for 2006? I suggest he was a bargain at $12,500 and certainly worth a lot more.
Respectfully
Hi FOS,
Just for a frame of reference what is your opinion of
Ghostzapper's $200,000 stud fee. . . . . . . . .
Thank you,
Tairaterces
OUCH seems very apropos
"and Secretariat let no one down on the unforgettable afternoon of June 9, 1973, when he ran a hole in the wind"
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~Bob Ehalt~
Avatar: Istabraq (Sadler's Wells x Betty's Secret by Secretariat) Champion Hurdler
hi Tairaterces
You ask "Just for a frame of reference what is your opinion of
Ghostzapper's $200,000 stud fee. . . . . . . . ."
Some months ago I expressed some thoughts on just that topic. I posted it on Fri Jul 01, 2005 9:31 pm...I wrote in response to Linda in TX...
"...Ghostzapper was uniquely versatile...and was arguably one of the fastest horses on the planet earth (thru his retirement after his victory in the Metropolitan H at age 5, 2005)...whether going 6 furlongs...1 mile...or 1 1/4 miles...
Ghostzapper's brilliance and versatility is an extremely rare commodity...and I expect that his stud fee will reflect that when announced...
...many seem to guess that around $100,000 will be his initial stud fee...but even the vicinity of $150,000+- would not surprise me. "
More recently Tairaterces I commented on GZ's announced advertised stud fee of $200k...
...some of what I wrote follows "$200k (right now anyway) does surprise me." I expected that if GZ was named Horse of the Year again (in 2005) that $200k was possible (if not probable)."
"...even at $200k I expect that some seasons will be sold...and some trades for other seasons will be made...you know how that goes...possibly Lanes End (for one example) trades as follows...2 A.P.Indys (valued at $300k each)...for 3 Ghostzappers (valued at $200k each). Voila...no dollars change hands...but top mares are attracted...to both stallions. A possible win...win situation.
The possibilities are endless when it comes to trades and/or deals.
Furthermore...I expect that there will be numerous foal shares done with Ghostzapper...that many commercial breeders will offer to put up the kind of broodmares (that if appealing terms are negotiated which are acceptable to all parties involved) could give Horse of the Year Ghostzapper the best possible opportunity to succeed (at both the sales and at the track)...while each breeder has an opportunity to limit his/her financial risk. At the same time, the stallion owners (Adena/Stronach and Jackson) can assure a significant book of mares...both quality and quantity-wise (above and beyond the wonderful mares they will breed to him) to offer GZ an opportunity for the ages.
I am confident also that Stronach and partner Jess Jackson have the wherewithall and the passion to offer Ghostzapper a HUGE opportunity regardless of season sales...trades...and/or foal shares (or whatever).
Regardless...I find it difficult to recommend that signing a contract to breed to GZ at $200k live...is (in general) a good play. For just the right mare though...even $200k could work...but All Things Considered it could be a high risk move. But you know how that risk and reward angle can sometimes play out. You can win some and you can lose some...hmmm.
An advertised stud fee of $200k (set on Ghostzapper for 2006) is 33% more than I expected ($150k+-)...but he was GREAT and extremely VERSATILE...a very RARE and GIFTED thoroughbred racehorse. A super-star from my vantage point.
Best to you Tairaterces.
Respectfully
You ask "Just for a frame of reference what is your opinion of
Ghostzapper's $200,000 stud fee. . . . . . . . ."
Some months ago I expressed some thoughts on just that topic. I posted it on Fri Jul 01, 2005 9:31 pm...I wrote in response to Linda in TX...
"...Ghostzapper was uniquely versatile...and was arguably one of the fastest horses on the planet earth (thru his retirement after his victory in the Metropolitan H at age 5, 2005)...whether going 6 furlongs...1 mile...or 1 1/4 miles...
Ghostzapper's brilliance and versatility is an extremely rare commodity...and I expect that his stud fee will reflect that when announced...
...many seem to guess that around $100,000 will be his initial stud fee...but even the vicinity of $150,000+- would not surprise me. "
More recently Tairaterces I commented on GZ's announced advertised stud fee of $200k...
...some of what I wrote follows "$200k (right now anyway) does surprise me." I expected that if GZ was named Horse of the Year again (in 2005) that $200k was possible (if not probable)."
"...even at $200k I expect that some seasons will be sold...and some trades for other seasons will be made...you know how that goes...possibly Lanes End (for one example) trades as follows...2 A.P.Indys (valued at $300k each)...for 3 Ghostzappers (valued at $200k each). Voila...no dollars change hands...but top mares are attracted...to both stallions. A possible win...win situation.
The possibilities are endless when it comes to trades and/or deals.
Furthermore...I expect that there will be numerous foal shares done with Ghostzapper...that many commercial breeders will offer to put up the kind of broodmares (that if appealing terms are negotiated which are acceptable to all parties involved) could give Horse of the Year Ghostzapper the best possible opportunity to succeed (at both the sales and at the track)...while each breeder has an opportunity to limit his/her financial risk. At the same time, the stallion owners (Adena/Stronach and Jackson) can assure a significant book of mares...both quality and quantity-wise (above and beyond the wonderful mares they will breed to him) to offer GZ an opportunity for the ages.
I am confident also that Stronach and partner Jess Jackson have the wherewithall and the passion to offer Ghostzapper a HUGE opportunity regardless of season sales...trades...and/or foal shares (or whatever).
Regardless...I find it difficult to recommend that signing a contract to breed to GZ at $200k live...is (in general) a good play. For just the right mare though...even $200k could work...but All Things Considered it could be a high risk move. But you know how that risk and reward angle can sometimes play out. You can win some and you can lose some...hmmm.
An advertised stud fee of $200k (set on Ghostzapper for 2006) is 33% more than I expected ($150k+-)...but he was GREAT and extremely VERSATILE...a very RARE and GIFTED thoroughbred racehorse. A super-star from my vantage point.
Best to you Tairaterces.
Respectfully
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George William Smith
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Afleet Alex
Fos: I agree with your assessment of the $75,000 stud fee and your thinking behind it.
Interestingly, I follow your logic well with Ghostzapper. My Predictive Sire program loves his pedigree and Racing Ability and yields a GRA score of 39.08 which is exceptionally high.
Afleet Alex also scores well but is only 36.21. This is a very good score but a lot of stallions can fail even at that high of score [scores above 27 are good].
My problem is with enhancing drugs that are rampant and often we have to wait for a sires foals to tell us how much of the good stuff he has inherited and how much was performance enhancing. So we wait.
Keep up the good work FOS, a refreshing voice in a very tough game.
Interestingly, I follow your logic well with Ghostzapper. My Predictive Sire program loves his pedigree and Racing Ability and yields a GRA score of 39.08 which is exceptionally high.
Afleet Alex also scores well but is only 36.21. This is a very good score but a lot of stallions can fail even at that high of score [scores above 27 are good].
My problem is with enhancing drugs that are rampant and often we have to wait for a sires foals to tell us how much of the good stuff he has inherited and how much was performance enhancing. So we wait.
Keep up the good work FOS, a refreshing voice in a very tough game.
http://www.bloodhorse.com has an aritcle confirming a deal for Afleet Alex's breeding rights is near completion with Castleton Lyons in the mix, but other interested parties remaining anonymous. Cash is King maintains the horse will run next year and Tim Ritchey confirms the horse will work early next week and start soon after (only one work? 
) So, brogers is indeed correct.
) So, brogers is indeed correct.