Ok so its very early but I cant help but already begin to think about this years Pick 6 & Pick 4 races . Here is how I see things as of today. The horses I would bet in a Pick 6 are in bold.
Mile
Horse To Beat: Leroidesanimaux- thats pretty obvious off a win in his last 8 starts
Horses I like: Rakti- not sure if he will even make it but esp on a firm course I think he would prove very tough to handle
Dubawi- Very classy son of Dubai Millennium that seems to be looking very strongly at coming over.
Starcraft- another that I'm not sure if his connections are looking very strongly at this spot but if they do he would have a huge shot.
Keep The Faith- He has run two super races at Belmont & I will def have a few dollars on him in this spot at probley a nice price.
Sprint
Horse to Beat: Lost in The Fog- he will be very low deserving odds but I have to agree with Kristen in looking at running Imperialism in here based on a typical hot pace LITF may be catchable late & her horse could def benifit from that as would Sir Shackleton. If those two go I think they could give LITH his first defeat.
Filly & Mare Turf
Horse To Beat: Shawanda- I very much liked her Arc run her stablemate set things up for her but that race was just tuff. No Hurricane Runs in here & on a firm course she could prove to be much the best.
Horses I like: Alinghi- she probley is very doubtful but her owners want a G1 before she goes back to Aus but will have to supplement 20% if they go that far you have to play her as much as Frankel likes her.
Melhor Ainda- has had tuff luck in her last couple of races, she is the real deal & will have to be to keep up with these but I think on her best she can & may get a lot better price than one may think.
Luas Line- has the look of a very live longshot I think & you know she likes the course
Alexander Goldrun- I would think she would be very doubtful but could add to what would be the race of the day IMO
Ouija Board- nice race coming in & you have to respect last years champ but I dont think she will do it again against what may be a lot stronger. bunch.
Juvenile
Horses To Beat: Private Vow & First Samurai- I have this race down to these two already & highly doubt anything will change my mind. Of course alot of others could improve overnight but I am just hung up on these two.
Turf
Horses to Beat: The Euros
I think very strongly that this race will be won by a classy Euro shipper, but which one? I really dont think Hurricane Run will ship for this race but he may. I am looking more at Bago, Motivator & Scorpion. Bago looks like he will come & be very playable off his Arc placing. Motivator, I really like as well esp on good footing. Others that I think are doubtful but would deserve a long look would be Scorpion & Grey Swallow.
Classic
Horse to Beat: Rock Hard Ten- had perfect prep in the Goodwood & should be set for a huge effort.
I think there are really just two obvious others you must look at in Afleet Alex & Saint Liam. Tons of questions on AA if he makes it but if he goes you can count on a strong effort. Saint Liam- he is the kind of horse I usually play against but feel like an idiot when they knock you out of a pick 4 or pick 6. You just about have to include him.
Thoughts from everyone else esp those of you in Europe that may have the scoop on what will come over? Thanks
Early BC predictions
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster
Some early thoughts -
At the mile I have to like Leroidesanimaux....because he's a Byerly Turk sireline horse and from a long line of Champion Milers....Rakti is my second choice
On the turf I'll have to go with one (or more) of the Euro horses - but one that likes a firmer bit of going than is usually the case in European grass races and can handle, perhaps, a faster speed on the front end and still have change in the bank for the finish.
In the Classic - I'm for Borrego and/or Afleet Alex over Rock Hard Ten...though I think the jockey on "Ten" and his trainer are a real "thinking" team....they tried to save the best for later but "Ten" was pushed a bit in that race to win and frankly it's the first race I've ever liked his way of going....so now I'll have to watch how he looks in the post parade, prior to the start. Afleet Alex is another trying son of a gun - if he comes on late, truly fresh and sound I look for there to be three horses battling on the lead coming out of the final turn: "Ten", "Saint Liam" and "Alex"......., and then running up on the outside like a relentless freight train is Borrego...so who's got the heart to really dig in and fight for it? I'm thinking Alex or Borrego, perhaps Saint Liam but I'm a bit nervous betting a Euro on the dirt, going the wrong way around and running a hard, race with a strong challenge on the end. Saint Liam - I simply don't know anything about him other than his stats.... I've never seen him in a race. However, I do respect his stats - they would have him as THE best horse in Europe right now (and some would say for some years)...but how well will he ship? How well will he handle all the changes and some tough competitors?
Still contemplating the other line-ups.
At the mile I have to like Leroidesanimaux....because he's a Byerly Turk sireline horse and from a long line of Champion Milers....Rakti is my second choice
On the turf I'll have to go with one (or more) of the Euro horses - but one that likes a firmer bit of going than is usually the case in European grass races and can handle, perhaps, a faster speed on the front end and still have change in the bank for the finish.
In the Classic - I'm for Borrego and/or Afleet Alex over Rock Hard Ten...though I think the jockey on "Ten" and his trainer are a real "thinking" team....they tried to save the best for later but "Ten" was pushed a bit in that race to win and frankly it's the first race I've ever liked his way of going....so now I'll have to watch how he looks in the post parade, prior to the start. Afleet Alex is another trying son of a gun - if he comes on late, truly fresh and sound I look for there to be three horses battling on the lead coming out of the final turn: "Ten", "Saint Liam" and "Alex"......., and then running up on the outside like a relentless freight train is Borrego...so who's got the heart to really dig in and fight for it? I'm thinking Alex or Borrego, perhaps Saint Liam but I'm a bit nervous betting a Euro on the dirt, going the wrong way around and running a hard, race with a strong challenge on the end. Saint Liam - I simply don't know anything about him other than his stats.... I've never seen him in a race. However, I do respect his stats - they would have him as THE best horse in Europe right now (and some would say for some years)...but how well will he ship? How well will he handle all the changes and some tough competitors?
Still contemplating the other line-ups.
Big correction to my post above:
I said:
when what I meant is that Leroidesanimaux is out of Byerly Turk sireline mare and by a Nasrullah sireline stallion. This has been a favorable combination for Miler - Classic distance success at the top of the racing game many times, leaning towards the Milers more so than the Classic Contenders. The Ahonoora's are an established line for producing good milers.
I said:
At the mile I have to like Leroidesanimaux....because he's a Byerly Turk sireline horse and from a long line of Champion Milers
when what I meant is that Leroidesanimaux is out of Byerly Turk sireline mare and by a Nasrullah sireline stallion. This has been a favorable combination for Miler - Classic distance success at the top of the racing game many times, leaning towards the Milers more so than the Classic Contenders. The Ahonoora's are an established line for producing good milers.
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Playwithfire
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jellac wrote:Some early thoughts -
...In the Classic ...and then running up on the outside like a relentless freight train is Borrego...so who's got the heart to really dig in and fight for it? I'm thinking Alex or Borrego, perhaps Saint Liam but I'm a bit nervous betting a Euro on the dirt, going the wrong way around and running a hard, race with a strong challenge on the end. Saint Liam - I simply don't know anything about him other than his stats.... I've never seen him in a race. However, I do respect his stats - they would have him as THE best horse in Europe right now (and some would say for some years)...but how well will he ship? How well will he handle all the changes and some tough competitors?
Still contemplating the other line-ups.
Jellac,
St. Liam is not a European horse, but one that has raced in the US, almost exclusively on dirt (1 turf race). I do believe there was a euro considering the Classic, but i can't remember the name. Bago perhaps, or Starcraft. I dont' think a Euro has ever won the BC CLassic though.
Starcraft is considering the Classic as is Oratorio (sp? otherwise know as the Aiden O'brien horse). The French invader Arcangues took the Classic at 99-1 with Jerry Bailey aboard several years ago.
Last edited by austique on Wed Oct 05, 2005 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Playwithfire
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Elusive City
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Re: Early BC predictions
TomFool wrote:Mile
Horse To Beat: Leroidesanimaux- thats pretty obvious off a win in his last 8 starts
Horses I like: Rakti- not sure if he will even make it but esp on a firm course I think he would prove very tough to handle
Dubawi- Very classy son of Dubai Millennium that seems to be looking very strongly at coming over.
Starcraft- another that I'm not sure if his connections are looking very strongly at this spot but if they do he would have a huge shot.
Keep The Faith- He has run two super races at Belmont & I will def have a few dollars on him in this spot at probley a nice price.
Firm turf--Starcraft Good turf--Leroidesanimuax Yld-soft--Dubawi
all depends on the going.
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Elusive City
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Re: Early BC predictions
[quote="TomFool"]
Filly & Mare Turf
Horse To Beat: [b]Shawanda[/b]- I very much liked her Arc run her stablemate set things up for her but that race was just tuff. No Hurricane Runs in here & on a firm course she could prove to be much the best.
Horses I like: [b]Alinghi[/b]- she probley is very doubtful but her owners want a G1 before she goes back to Aus but will have to supplement 20% if they go that far you have to play her as much as Frankel likes her.
Melhor Ainda- has had tuff luck in her last couple of races, she is the real deal & will have to be to keep up with these but I think on her best she can & may get a lot better price than one may think.
[b]Luas Line[/b]- has the look of a very live longshot I think & you know she likes the course
Alexander Goldrun- I would think she would be very doubtful but could add to what would be the race of the day IMO
Ouija Board- nice race coming in & you have to respect last years champ but I dont think she will do it again against what may be a lot stronger. bunch.
[/quote]
Shawanda on the sidelines for the year.
basically Ouija board just has to show up in decent shape.
She towers over these.
Only cavet is on ylg/soft going with Wonder again but even on the off
going I am taking Ouija Board.
Filly & Mare Turf
Horse To Beat: [b]Shawanda[/b]- I very much liked her Arc run her stablemate set things up for her but that race was just tuff. No Hurricane Runs in here & on a firm course she could prove to be much the best.
Horses I like: [b]Alinghi[/b]- she probley is very doubtful but her owners want a G1 before she goes back to Aus but will have to supplement 20% if they go that far you have to play her as much as Frankel likes her.
Melhor Ainda- has had tuff luck in her last couple of races, she is the real deal & will have to be to keep up with these but I think on her best she can & may get a lot better price than one may think.
[b]Luas Line[/b]- has the look of a very live longshot I think & you know she likes the course
Alexander Goldrun- I would think she would be very doubtful but could add to what would be the race of the day IMO
Ouija Board- nice race coming in & you have to respect last years champ but I dont think she will do it again against what may be a lot stronger. bunch.
[/quote]
Shawanda on the sidelines for the year.
basically Ouija board just has to show up in decent shape.
She towers over these.
Only cavet is on ylg/soft going with Wonder again but even on the off
going I am taking Ouija Board.
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Elusive City
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Re: Early BC predictions
TomFool wrote:
Turf
Horses to Beat: The Euros
I think very strongly that this race will be won by a classy Euro shipper, but which one? I really dont think Hurricane Run will ship for this race but he may. I am looking more at Bago, Motivator & Scorpion. Bago looks like he will come & be very playable off his Arc placing. Motivator, I really like as well esp on good footing. Others that I think are doubtful but would deserve a long look would be Scorpion & Grey Swallow.
what about Azamour? Is he chopped liver.
On firm going he's the winner. Otherwise HR will win.
Euros 1-2-3 under the wire here.
shakespeare, don't make me laugh.
Re: Early BC predictions
Don't forget about Powerscourt. He is a horse that has taken to American style turf racing like a fish to water. The Powerscourt you saw in the Arlignton Million is not the same one who was a cut below top class in Europe.
Although....Belmont is one of the best NA courses for the true Euro style runners due to the long stretch. For example, recall how Sulamani (a deep Euro closer) ran at Arlington (tighter turns, shorter stretch and came too late) and then at Belmont or Woodbine (Cruised!).
Hurricane Run's stretch move reminds me of Rock of Gibraltar, only he can do it at 12 furlongs.
Although....Belmont is one of the best NA courses for the true Euro style runners due to the long stretch. For example, recall how Sulamani (a deep Euro closer) ran at Arlington (tighter turns, shorter stretch and came too late) and then at Belmont or Woodbine (Cruised!).
Hurricane Run's stretch move reminds me of Rock of Gibraltar, only he can do it at 12 furlongs.