How about a little BC contest?

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austique
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How about a little BC contest?

Postby austique » Wed Oct 26, 2005 12:49 pm

I was thinking about a little contest for the BC. Each poster would be allowed two picks for each race: One which must be 10-1 or lower in odds and the other must be a longshot special at odds of higher than than 10-1. No prize other than futher proof of your own overwhelming superiority. :D
I don't have low self-esteem. I have low esteem for everyone else. ~ Daria

Shergar
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Postby Shergar » Wed Oct 26, 2005 6:05 pm

A different way to pick races, but I will be the first to take a stab at this.

Juvenile Fillies
Folklore 5-2 I sure hope she can carry her speed another 3/16ths
Knights Templar 12-1 If she runs to her last, she could be dangerous on the lead.

Juvenile
First Samurai 8-5 Just can't see anyone beating him.
Leo 20-1 Always likes family 9-c* If he takes to dirt, I think he could be running hard at the end.

Fillies & Mares Turf
Megahertz 5-1 I think Ouija Board's best races are behind her. Megahertz will be running down someone at the end.
Luas Line 20-1 Can't figure out if she is going to go to the front or will lay off the pace. Like her breeding though, she might be in a bit deep here.
I really like Intercontinental, but she is 8-1 on morning line, so I can't take her here. (She will be in some sort of actual wager though.

Sprint
LITH 1-1 I have some nagging doubts about him. To Wit; he has another horse look him in the eye coming into the stretch. Will he have it in him? I sure hope he wins, as he is my sentimental favourite for the day.
Elusive Jazz 12-1 I'm picking him based on his conduit mare profile. (Bill from WA, I LOVE your book) In his first try in graded stakes company, he really stepped up and uncorked a good one.

Mile
Leroidesanimaux 7-5 What can you say that hasn't already been said.
As for the 10-1 or higher, It's a crap shoot to me. I would go with Host at 12-1, Funfair at 12-1 or Gorella at 20-1. Im not really enthused about the last two. Whatever I decide to bet, I'm leaving out Singletery.

Distaff
Stellar Jayne 5-1 This year the distaff seems to puzzle me??
In The Gold 20-1 I really think she could be the winner. She seems to be coming into her own. If there is a pace meltdown, she could be chugging up there at the end. Has some some ability to close or run off the lead.

Mile
Azamour 7-2 I think he will atone for his Irish Chamions flop. Has won twice on left hand turns which is something I have always considered to be of importance.
Gun Salute 20-1 I have to pick someone over 10-1, he looks the best of the longshots. Though I think he will be behind Azamour, Bago, Better Talk Now and Shakespeare.

Classic
Rock Hard Ten 7-2 I just want Gary Stevens to get a Classic Win. If that "sore foot" is ok, he really may be the best in the field
Jack Sullivan 50-1. He is going to need a shot of "Jack" before the race!! After the race he might need another to forget the whupping he got.
Starcraft 10-1. I think he is going to be the "wiseguys" pick. I doubt if one will get 10-1 on him

For better or for worse, those are some prelim picks.

All the best, Shergar

Eluz

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Keith
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Breeder's Cup Picks

Postby Keith » Wed Oct 26, 2005 6:33 pm

Here are my Breeder's Cup Picks

Breeder's Cup Distaff
Ashado by Saint Ballado-Goulash by Mari's Book (2-1)
Nothing But Fun by Dixie Union-Zepa by Theatrical (30-1)

Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies
Folklore by Tiznow-Contrive by Storm Cat (5-2)
Diamond Omi by Giant's Causeway-Hum Along by Fappiano (12-1)

Breeder's Cup Mile
Artie Schiller by El Prado-Hidden Light by Majestic Light (6-1)
Ad Valorem by Danzig-Classy Women by Relaunch (30-1)

Breeder's Cup Sprint
Lost In The Fog by Lost Soldier-Cloud Break by Dr. Carter (even)
Taste of Paradise by Conquistador Cielo-Tastethetearsdrop by What Luck(12-1)

Breeder's Cup Filly Mare & Turf
Intercontinental by Danehill-Hasili by Kahyasi (8-1)
Mona Lisa by Giant's Causeway-Colorsnap by Shirley Heights(15-1)

Breeder's Cup Juvenile
First Samurai by Giant's Causeway-Freddy Frisson by Dixieland Band (8-5)
Ivon Denisovich by Danehill-Hollywood Wildcat by Kris S. (12-1)

Breeder's Cup Turf
Bago by Nashwan-Moonlight's Box by Nureyev (5-1)
Shirocco by Monsun-So Sedulous by The Minstrel (20-1)

Breeder's Cup Classic
Borrego by El Prado-Sweet As Honey by Strike The Gold (9-2)
Perfect Drift by Dynaformer-Nice Gal by Naskra (12-1)

Keith

Coquinerie
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Postby Coquinerie » Wed Oct 26, 2005 8:04 pm

i'll bite

BC Juvie Fillies-- Sensation 8-1 and Diamond Omi 12-1
BC Juvie-- First Samurai 8-5 and Dawn of War 20-1
F&M Turf-- Wonder Again 8-1 and Wend 10-1
Sprint-- Silver Train 8-1 and Elusive Jazz 12-1
Mile-- Leroidesanimaux 7-5 and Funfair 12-1
Distaff-- Society Selection 8-1 and Pleasant Home 20-1
Turf-- Bago 5-1 and Fourty Niners Son 15-1
Classic-- Oratorio 10-1 and Suave 20-1

I had to add my Distaff fave Society Selection. I've always backed her, no sense in not doing it now although I think Healthy Addiction is better than people are giving her credit for!
Last edited by Coquinerie on Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:36 am, edited 1 time in total.

TomFool
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Postby TomFool » Wed Oct 26, 2005 8:33 pm

Here is mine
Juv Fillies: Wild Fit 6-1 & Ex Caelis 15-1
Juv: Stevie Wonderboy 8-1 & Sorcerer's Stone 12-1
F & M Turf: Wonder Again 8-1 & Favourable Terms 20-1
Sprint: Lost In The Fog 1-1 & Lion Tamer 12-1
Mile: Leroidesanimaux 7-5 & Valixir 10-1
Distaff: Happy Ticket 6-1 & In The Gold 20-1
Turf: Bago 5-1 & Shirocco 20-1
Classic: Saint Liam 3-1 & Oratorio 10-1
Last edited by TomFool on Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:47 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Karie
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Postby Karie » Wed Oct 26, 2005 8:40 pm

Breeder's Cup Picks

Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies
Wild Fit (6-1)
Diamond Omi (12-1)

Breeder's Cup Juvenile
Stream Cat (30-1) ( GO BLACK MINNALOUSHE! )
Ivaon Denisovich (12-1)

Breeder's Cup Distaff
Ashado (2-1)
Island Fashion (12-1)

Breeder's Cup Mile
Leroidesanimaux (7-5)
Host (12-1)

Breeder's Cup Filly Mare & Turf
Ouija Board (5-2)
Mona Lisa (15-1)

Breeder's Cup Sprint
Lost In The Fog (even)
Battle Won (10-1)

Breeder's Cup Turf
Azamour (7-2)
English Channel (10-1)

Breeder's Cup Classic
Rock Hard Ten (7-2)
14 Starcraft (12-1)

austique
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Postby austique » Wed Oct 26, 2005 8:53 pm

The odds limitations were just to keep folks from picking nothing but chalk :wink: Oh and do remember to watch for scratches.

Juvenile Fillies
Wild Fit (6-1): There is going to be a scramble on for the lead and she's the lone confirmed closer. Perhaps not the most talented, but in line to pick up the pieces.
Along the Sea (20-1):Ran 2nds and 3rds to Adieu and Folklore who are the two most accomplished fillies in the field. Could get sick of playing the ugly stepsister.

Juvenille
Stevie Wonderboy (8-1): How many big sweeping superstar making moves have we seen in the Juvenile? He'll do it this year.
Dawn of War (20-1): There will be no Coolmore sired horses on this list hence Dawn of War makes it in.

Filly and Mare Turf
Megahertz (5-1): Turf is probably going to be soft for her liking, but you have to love her.
Sundrop (30-1): No reasoning here except I always bet the Japanese bred horses at the BC and I always lose money. Hard to break with a time-honored tradition.

Sprint
Lost in the Fog (even): I had some doubts given the creampuff field he faced in his prep, but this isn't much of a field.
Taste of Paradise (12-1): I miss Gary Mandella on TVG :?:

Mile
Valixir (10-1): Fabre and the Aga Kahn
Sand Springs (20-1): I love that crazy cow :wink:

Distaff
Happy Ticket (6-1): Looked good closing to Ashado last out
Pleasant Home (20-1): Going on the Shug connection here

Turf
Better Talk Now (8-1): He likes the soggy stuff and his trainer actually has grasped the concept of how to use a rabbit and not look like an idiot. (This was tough for me. I love Shakespeare :cry: )
Laura's Lucky Boy (20-1) He's out of a half sister to Cigar. It won't make him a legitimate contender, but I dig him.

Classic
Borrego (9-2): Substituted with the scratch of Rock Hard Ten :cry: . Big closing kick in JC Gold Cup and showed he likes the Belmont oval. Improving at the right time.
Starcraft (12-1): Every year there is one freak performance and he could be the culprit.
Last edited by austique on Fri Oct 28, 2005 10:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
I don't have low self-esteem. I have low esteem for everyone else. ~ Daria

StrawberryFelidos
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Postby StrawberryFelidos » Thu Oct 27, 2005 8:02 am

Here's my only pick, and it's for the Turf:
at loooooong odds, Shake the Bank (because if he actually wins, I want to be the one who said it from the start :wink:)
For example, perhaps a nuclear explosion will occur and Shake the Bank will be the only horse left standing in he race...
I do route for him, though. I feel bad for him being in this spot and would love to see him suddenly turn around and whip the big boys at their game like old Aristides, that would be funny as hell :twisted:

parsixfarms
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Postby parsixfarms » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:53 pm

Here goes:

Juvenile Fillies: Original Spin (6-1) and Ex Caelis (15-1). Not too high on the New York-based fillies. The "other Lukas" made a winning move in last over a quirky track at Keeneland.

Juvenile: Stevie Wonderboy (8-1) and Set Alight (20-1). Stevie closed like a "crazy horse" in the Delmar Futurity. Not in love with any of the longshots, but respect Criquette Head and this one is a half-brother to Apple of Kent, who ran well on dirt for Kimmel after coming over from Europe. Juddmonte also brought over Eltish for second in 1994 Juvenile.

F&M Turf: Wonder Again (8-1) and Film Maker (12-1). I would love to see Wonder Again's connections be rewarded for returning her to training this year, as Riskaverse's were in Flower Bowl. Despite these feelings, the head says she can do it as well, since she's well drawn and loves the "off" going.

Sprint: Lost in the Fog (even) and Wildcat Heir (15-1). I can't figure out why all the "wiseguys" love to knock LITF. Awesome at Calder and Saratoga. He shows up every time and gives a knockout performance. Wildcat Heir has the back class to win this, and his race at Monmouth this summer was nothing short of sensational. Hope he's fit enough.

Mile: Leroidesanimeaux (7-5) and Valixir (10-1). Leroy is the "king" until beaten. Valixir was 4-5 in France's top mile races. His best could beat Leroy, which is considerably more than the rest can probably say.

Distaff: Society Selection (8-1) and In the Gold (20-1). It would be nice to see "The Chief" finally win a BC race. Her best is good enough. Ran awesome two back. After being in many paceless, short fields all year, she finally gets a big field that's likely to have a legitimate pace. Nails them in the shadow of the wire for Prado's first BC win.

Turf: Bago (5-1) and Fourty Niner's Son (15-1). Arc looked like a prep for this, and a good prep it was. Fourty Niner's Son has shown steady progression all year. Never thrilled with betting SoCal turfers on "off" going on East Coast, but the price will be right and he seemed to handle it OK in Million for Drysdale, who's never to be discounted.

Classic: Rock Hard Ten (7-2) and Perfect Drift (12-1). RHT drew ideal post for Belmont configuration and is legit 10F horse. Mandella knows how to win these. Throw out Perfect Drift's last over sloppy track he didn't care for and he fits. Nice draw for old warrior.

Best of luck to everyone on Saturday.

Bill from WA
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Postby Bill from WA » Thu Oct 27, 2005 4:03 pm

Juv. Fillies

Original Spin/Sensation

Juv. C&G

Stevie Wonderboy/Sorcerers Stone

F&M Turf

Intercontinental/Luas Line

Sprint

Lost In The Fog/Wildcat Heir

Mile

Leroidesanimaux/Funfair

Distaff

Ashado/In The Gold

Turf

Bago/Gun Salute

Classic

Borrego/Starcraft

Bill
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siegy
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agree or not to your pck's-that;s all;

Postby siegy » Thu Oct 27, 2005 5:28 pm

Bill from WA wrote:Juv. Fillies

Original Spin/Sensation no

Juv. C&G

Stevie Wonderboy/Sorcerers Stone no

F&M Turf

Intercontinental/Luas Line like no 2

Sprint

Lost In The Fog/Wildcat Heir agree on both take your pick

Mile

Leroidesanimaux/Funfair no 1 all the way

Distaff

Ashado/In The Gold no 2 best

Turf

Bago/Gun Salute no

Classic

Borrego/Starcraft no can not reveal sorry, to precious..........

Bill
:lol: good luck to you and all


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Stedfast Farm
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Postby Stedfast Farm » Thu Oct 27, 2005 6:16 pm

Juvenile Fillies

Original Spin 6-1
Ex Caelis 15-1

Juvenile Boys

First Samarai 8/5
Leo 20-1

F&M Turf

Wonder Again 8-1
Wend 10-1

Sprint

Lost in the fog 1-1
Elusive Jazz 12-1

Mile

Leroidesanimaux 7-5
Host 12-1

Distaff

Happy Ticket 6-1
Island Fashion 12-1

Turf

Bago 5-1
English Channel 10-1

Classic

Borrego 9-2
Sun King 30-1 (upset of the day) :roll:

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Kari
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Postby Kari » Fri Oct 28, 2005 12:54 pm

These are the morning lines from yesterday. I haven't had a chance to post my picks until now.

Juvenile Fillies
Folklore 5-2
Ex Caelis 15-1

Juvenile
First Samurai 8-5
Stream Cat 30-1

Filly and Mare Turf
Ouija Board 5-2
Sundrop 30-1

Sprint
Lost in the Fog even
Imperialism 15-1

Mile
Artie Schiller 6-1
Host 12-1 (Love this horse for some reason!)

Distaff
Ashado 2-1
Island Fashion 12-1

Turf
Better Talk Now 8-1
Shirocco 20-1 (He's German, and my daughter was born there. That's the extent of my handicapping skills.)

Classic
Saint Liam 3-1 (begrudgingly)
Starcraft 12-1

Originally I picked RHT for the Classic, but that just went out the window. I like Starcraft better than St. Liam, I think. If he can win races on two continents, maybe he won't notice that he's on a third continent.
This was a good idea. In the past, if I picked a winner, no one around me believed me because I didn't have it memorialized, and no one cared because they had never heard of any of the horses. :wink:

reenci
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Postby reenci » Fri Oct 28, 2005 7:30 pm

juvenile:sorcer's stone 10-1.......jealous profit 50-1

im sorry its all im betting saturday..$ 10.00 exacta box.....
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redone
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Postby redone » Sat Oct 29, 2005 6:33 am

1) Adieu & Diamond Omi
2) First Samurai & Leo
3) Megahertz & Mona Lisa
4) Lost in the Fog & Imperialism
5) Artie Schiller & Sand Springs
6) Sweet Symphony & Pleasant Home
7) Bago & Fourty Niners Son
8) Flower Alley & Suave

Who I like best are First Samurai-- Mona Lisa-- Sweet Symphony
Fourty niners Son-- Flower Alley
Good Luck