Saint Liam takes the Classic

[Heidilady]

Very likely everybody'll wanna give him HOY..oh well..

Saint Liam 1st
Flower Alley 2nd (managed to relax but had to go'n throw a dud in the last one so I'm sure that didn't prep him as well plus he's a 3yo..always next year)
Yay that Perfect Drift got 3rd for another piece of things...I still think this was a case for "Last Horse Standing" rather than Horse of the Year. If Afleet Alex does the Cigar Mile like they're thinking, could change things. Don't give Saint Liam the trophy yet. I mean he'll get champ older horse anyway. I figure it'll be Afleet Alex champ 3yo, Lost in the Fog champ sprinter (yes even after today), and Saint Liam older horse. Probably Saint Liam HOY just cuz of the bias to that older dirt horse bit but it ain't over yet.

Charlsey Canty (who's name I'm probably butchering) is retiring so bon voyage and thanks for being a part of the horse racing coverage. Gonna be weird not having her around.

[Sam]

Probably Saint Liam HOY just cuz of the bias to that older dirt horse bit but it ain't over yet.

blink



Double blink

Saint Liam finishes the season 4 for 6 with all 4 wins being in open Grade 1 competition over 9 or more furlongs.

Okay... ignore the fact that he ran over a route of ground ... forget he beat older horses in all his starts (including Roses In May)

4 Grade 1 victories for the season

No one else has a record that even comes close.

You honestly think you can make a convincing argument for anyone else? I would LOVE to hear it.

[austique]

Saint Liam is Horse of the Year hands down. Lost in the Fog was soundly defeated as were outside HOY shots (only cause they were undefeated and only if Saint Liam and Borrego flopped) First Samauri and Shakespeare. Leroi also came up a loser although a game one. Afleet Alex hasn't started since June and didn't win against older. Sorry, but the Cigar Mile is not going to get him HOY honors. Saint Liam will win it. He deserves it. If Afleet Alex wants it he'll have to run and stay sound next year.

[ZiaLand]

I agree Saint Liam looks like a shoe-in right now, but......

It was announced that Afleet Alex may run two more races before the HOY is decided. I'm not sure where, when and who he'll be running (i.e. good older horses or not), but it *might* not be over just yet.

We'll see.

Laurie

[Sam]

It was announced that Afleet Alex may run two more races before the HOY is decided. I'm not sure where, when and who he'll be running (i.e. good older horses or not), but it *might* not be over just yet.

It is over. There's nothing left for him to win that would match Saint Liam's 4 G1s. Not even a win in the Cigar Mile would do it. He'd need at least one win in open company and 2 more wins in total.

Alex's only real chance at a HOY title for this year would have been if Liam had lost. He didn't. It's over. There's no reason to run Alex again this season and I doubt they do.

His ONLY chance at taking HOY now would be for him to win the Clark on 26 Nov and hope Rock Hard Ten is in the same race. He would then have to follow it up with a win in the Malibu on 26 Dec. Even with that, he would be one G1 short, so you would have to hope the two G2s (Clark against open company and Ark Derby) would make up for it. Either way, I don't see it happening.

[austique]

I gotta go with Sam. There just aren't enough races for him to pull it off and most of your really salty competition is either going to the breeding shed or will take the rest of the year off. I would love, love, love to see him hit the Strub series though.

[Sam]

There just aren't enough races for him to pull it off and most of your really salty competition is either going to the breeding shed or will take the rest of the year off.

That's it in a nutshell. Too much to do and not enough time to do it. The only race likely to draw any kind of decent field would be the Clark (because I can't see Rock Hard Ten staying in NY to run in the Cigar). He'd hook a couple of comebackers in the Malibu (Declan's Moon, Giacomo maybe) so they won't do him any favours.

[Heidilady]

to quote the Bloodhorse.com article on Saint Liam:

"The winner, a 5-year-olds son of Saint Ballado trained by Richard Dutrow (who also took the TVG Sprint when Silver Train upset Lost in the Fog), has won nine of 20 career starts. Saturday's victory, worth $2,433,600, ran Saint Liam's career earnings to $4,456,995 and helped the horse stake a strong claim to the 2005 Horse of the Year award."

"strong" claim...notice they didn't say 'the only claim' or 'clinched HOY'...we shall see... The fact that Alex could race (and I feel win) in graded stakes races (as in plural meaning more than one) after what he'd been through where many owners would've shelved their horse or retired him (probably the latter for a lot of folks) means he is doing something extraordinary. As if he didn't already show that in the Preakness. I'll just come out and say not once has Saint Liam sent chills up my spine. He has however done a lovely job cleaning up Ghostzapper's leftovers...remind me to give him a tip. Being the best in a mediocre division ain't what wins the prize. Flower Alley was last 3yo standing in the classic distance division and he isn't even the most accomplished. Look what he did in the Classic over this *ehem* illustrious field. Just shows you where Afleet Alex must've been talentwise in comparison to Saint Liam.

[Sam]

"strong" claim...notice they didn't say 'the only claim' or 'clinched HOY'...we shall see...

They aren't going to say "clinched". That's a house reporter doing a cover story. Only those willing to put their name on their vote would say that now (Read: People who ACTUALLY have a say in the voting) and some ARE already saying it.

The fact that Alex could race (and I feel win) in graded stakes races (as in plural meaning more than one)

Opinions vary. I think he could win another race this year. Depending on what races they were, he might even win two. The point most people who don't seem to pay much attention to what it really takes to win are missing is that NOTHING he wins between now and December 31 will be enough to make up for the fact that Saint Liam has 4 GRADE 1 WINS IN OPEN COMPANY including a win in the Breeders' Cup Classic (which most seem to equate to two 'normal' G1s).

There are only a handful of G1 races left and he would have to win two to even have a chance. He's currently down 2 G1s (3 if you buy the Classic = 2 G1s theory... which I'm guessing you don't, Heidi).

Hollywood Derby 10f on the grass on 11/27
Malibu S. 7f on 12/26
De Francis Dash 6f on 11/19
Cigar Mile 8f on 11/26
Citation H. 8.5f on the grass on 11/26
Hollywood Turf Cup 12f on the grass on 12/3

The first two are for 3yos only and neither of them will do him any good. The turf races MIGHT (The HP Turf Cup would make a bigger impact than the Citation) help only in that it would give him the versatility vote.

The problem is the schedule (a point that seems to be missed by most who want to argue he can win HOY by winning two more races). 5 of those races fall within 3 weeks of each other and are at opposite ends of the country on tracks/surfaces he's never run on before.

The way those shook out, the ONLY thing he could hope to do would be to win one of the grass races AND the Malibu.

It won't happen.

I'll just come out and say not once has Saint Liam sent chills up my spine.

You're going to base your argument for Alex winning HOY on whether or not you get "chills"?

Personally, no American horse has given me chills this year and even if they did, that isn't enough for me to to vote for them. I don't buy hype (so that "heartstrings and harps" story about Alex has no effect on me whatsoever). A horse as to earn it and Liam has earned it. Yes, I could accept Alex as HOY if that is how the voting shakes out, but I believe Liam has accomplished more and deserves it more. An older horse with 4 G1 victories against open company is a hell of a lot more meaningful to me than a 3yo with 2 G1s (or even 3) against 3yos.

He has however done a lovely job cleaning up Ghostzapper's leftovers...remind me to give him a tip.

blink

Being the best in a mediocre division ain't what wins the prize. Flower Alley was last 3yo standing in the classic distance division and he isn't even the most accomplished.

You do realize you just contradicted yourself within two sentences.

Flower Alley is probably the 2nd most accomplished 3yo this year (ignoring Lost in the Fog because he's a sprinter and therefore dismissed for the age title by most of the voters). The only one who immediately comes to mind is Roman Ruler.

Alex is really the only standout in his division (Lost In The Fog is granted a pass since he will no be considered a "3yo", he will be considered a "Sprinter")

Just shows you where Afleet Alex must've been talentwise in comparison to Saint Liam.

Fortunately, most voters award on MERIT and not "might have been". It's not about what he MIGHT have done, it's what about he DID do ... and compared to Liam, it isn't enough.

Again, if you've got a logical argument (one NOT dependant on "getting chills") for someone else winning HOY, I would LOVE to hear it.

[sarahcook]

But because he won 2 out of 3 triple crown races, don't you know he should automatically be HOY?
How many horses in the past have did the same thing as he? Smarty Jones comes to mind, along with several others in the last ten years. In my mind HOY of the year should be someone that ran all year, against tough company and a breeder's cup win at the end doesn't hurt either...
St. Liam Is a class act, and with his record deserves the HOY of the year award, anyways Afleet Alex can run next year and get HOY..
A horse that sends chills down your spine isn't enough to get them award. Sorry but if you watch 5,000 claimers, you'll see horses that will send chills up your spine, if you follow the horse and know a bit more about them.
Its a endless cycle, not many triple crown horses make it to the breeder's cup, they are usually broke down by then, no different for Afleet Alex.

[mary syers]

Why was Saint Liam suspect at 1 1/4 mile with Halo, Herbager, and Lyphard and Gallorette prominant in his pedigree? Mary Syers

[Mahubah]

Pedigree suggested 10f no problem (although possibility existed that he would prove better at 9f), but only previous performance at 10f was his unplaced effort in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1), which in hindsight may be safely thrown out as a clunker. You can't always rely on the pedigree to tell you what a horse will actually do; champion sprinter Intentionally was by a two-time San Juan Capistrano Handicap (1-3/4 miles) winner out of a Discovery mare and on paper should have stayed all day.

[FOS]

hi guys

It has been suggested that Afleet Alex might run in the G1-Cigar Mile. I suggest that with his current resume, if he should win the Cigar he is in a position to pull off Horse Of The Year honors...and I would not be surprised (after such an accomplishment) if he got the HOY nod.

I also suggest that Team Alex is seriously looking to make a Big Money stallion-deal...as a result they seem to be very cautious (right now), and wavering re: the risks they're willing to take (right now) with their colt's racing career.

Alex is a cinch for the 3-year-old Eclipse Award...and even a poor effort in a comeback race will not deny him that honor. The flip side is that the quest for a Big Dollars stallion-deal will arguably be short-circuited (at least to some extent) if he throws in a stinker...excuse or not.

It seems that Team Alex disseminates enough info to keep their colt's name in the mix...at the same time they hang a carrot out there...at the same time they seem to be extremely cautious about running him...hmmm. I sense that's the way it will continue to be unless and until an Afleet Alex stallion-deal is in place...and/or the risk of running him while not potentially upsetting the financial apple-cart is to Team Alex' satisfaction.

Possibility is also that Afleet Alex might not be sound enough and/or fit enough to start and/or make a winning effort at the highest level.

Regardless of all other scenarios...if Alex does make one more start this year...and it's the G1-Cigar...and he wins...he'll be right in the mix for Horse Of The Year honors (as far as I'm concerned).

If he pulls that off...many of us might be surprised at the results of the Horse Of The Year vote.
And the winner is..........

Respectfully

[Sam]

if Alex does make one more start this year...and it's the G1-Cigar...and he wins...he'll be right in the mix for Horse Of The Year honors

He's in the mix right now, even without winning the Cigar Mile. That's not the point. If the vote were taken now, I'm positive Liam would win. If Alex wins the Cigar Mile, I still think Liam would win HOY, but the vote would be closer. It would be even closer with a win in the Cigar Mile and the Malibu. If he won the Clark over Rock Hard Ten or one of those grass races against older horse AND the Malibu, I think it would swing in Alex' favour.

[FOS]

hi Sam

My odds for Horse Of The Year honors...

...today:

St Liam 4-5

Afleet Alex 3-1


If Alex makes one more start...the G1-Cigar...and he wins:

St Liam 8-5

Afleet Alex 6-5


If Alex makes 2 more starts...the Cigar and the Malibu...and he wins them both:

St Liam 3-1

Afleet Alex 4-5


Whatta ya think?

Respectfully