you claimed the cheapest, heaviest raced 3 year old possible... say in a $3500 claimer (off an unknown trainer) and turned him out for 3 solid months? Then, got him back into racing form with one of the worlds best trainers (pick one, Mott, Pletcher, whover you like).
What do you think would happen?
What would happen if...
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Re: What would happen if...
dray33 wrote:you claimed the cheapest, heaviest raced 3 year old possible... say in a $3500 claimer (off an unknown trainer) and turned him out for 3 solid months? Then, got him back into racing form with one of the worlds best trainers (pick one, Mott, Pletcher, whover you like).
What do you think would happen?
Very little.
Cheap claimers are cheap claimers. Maybe one in 2000 has the hidden ability to be more, but the odds of finding the right one, getting it to the right trainer and ridden by the right jockey are astronomical.
It makes for great Hollywood, but there is a fine line between dream and delusion.
Right. What would happen if you took a mediocre junior college baseball team, gave them jerseys that said "Yankees", and hired Joe Torre to manage them? They'd still be a mediocre junior college baseball team. Worse yet, you'd be paying Torre top dollar for his time. Or in the case of Mott or Pletcher, you'd be paying nearly as much to train the horse as he is worth.
UmmYeah wrote:What would happen if you took a mediocre junior college baseball team, gave them jerseys that said "Yankees", and hired Joe Torre to manage them?
THEY SIGNED DAMON!!!
I feel a hard cry coming on. Yeah, Bernie wasn't cutting it anymore, but DAMON
And while I'm not one for guys with beards and long hair, he's one FUNKY looking dude without it.
One more overpriced ballplayer. PITCHERS, DAMNIT
THEY NEED PITCHERS Sam wrote:THEY SIGNED DAMON!!!
I feel a hard cry coming on. Yeah, Bernie wasn't cutting it anymore, but DAMON
One more overpriced ballplayer. PITCHERS, DAMNIT
Well, as a Red Sox fan, I too feel a hard cry coming on. However, I guess I also feel that Damon is pretty overrated and that his best years probably aren't in front of him. So I guess I'm getting a bit philosophical and feeling glad we got a few good years out of him. So best of luck to you with him, but I feel (and hope!) that he's another high-priced Yankee flop.
Re: What would happen if...
Sam wrote:but the odds of finding the right one, getting it to the right trainer and ridden by the right jockey are astronomical.
Getting it to the right trainer, and right jockey is under your control. Let's say you can do that. Give it to a top trainer, who will use a top jockey. NOW... it's all about the horse. After turning the horse out for 3 months and re-training him the new-guys way, using his methods and his jockey when the horse is ready... what happens?
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Tairaterces
- Grade III Winner
- Posts: 1026
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:27 am
- Location: NorCal
Re: What would happen if...
dray33 wrote:Sam wrote:but the odds of finding the right one, getting it to the right trainer and ridden by the right jockey are astronomical.
Getting it to the right trainer, and right jockey is under your control. Let's say you can do that. Give it to a top trainer, who will use a top jockey. NOW... it's all about the horse. After turning the horse out for 3 months and re-training him the new-guys way, using his methods and his jockey when the horse is ready... what happens?
hmmmmm . . . . . . .
Okay dray33 . . . . . . . . who did you claim?
Tairaterces
"and Secretariat let no one down on the unforgettable afternoon of June 9, 1973, when he ran a hole in the wind"
~Bob Ehalt~
Avatar: Istabraq (Sadler's Wells x Betty's Secret by Secretariat) Champion Hurdler
~Bob Ehalt~
Avatar: Istabraq (Sadler's Wells x Betty's Secret by Secretariat) Champion Hurdler
Nobody Tairaterces (good question though).
I am really just curious. I was recently watching racing from Buleah Park ($3,500) claimers, and I saw a couple things:
1) many of them have raced a million times
2) some of them looked fantastic (to my uneducated eye)
I got to thinking about purchases and levels of the sport. So you spend a bunch of money for a horse, and it gives you access, albeit short access, to the highest level of the sport. You maiden at Belmont or 'Toga, and hope for the best, dreams of graded stakes dancing in your head. I begin wondering, why can these $3,500 horses race so often without breakdowns? They look great, are they all that different from the other horses we see? What would happen if we dropped them into a race beyond the existing class? I check the winning times, they are not so drastically different.
I realize thats folly, but then I got to thinking about the variables to racing a horse, training, feed, et al. Made me think about a recent movie where a son was born into a poor family, and the father sent him off to "change his stars". By changing variables, can we make these cheap claimers better than they are? Hence the question...
" If you claimed the cheapest, heaviest raced 3 year old possible... say in a $3500 claimer (off an unknown trainer) and turned him out for 3 solid months? Then, got him back into racing form with one of the worlds best trainers (pick one, Mott, Pletcher, whover you like).
What do you think would happen?"
I am really just curious. I was recently watching racing from Buleah Park ($3,500) claimers, and I saw a couple things:
1) many of them have raced a million times
2) some of them looked fantastic (to my uneducated eye)
I got to thinking about purchases and levels of the sport. So you spend a bunch of money for a horse, and it gives you access, albeit short access, to the highest level of the sport. You maiden at Belmont or 'Toga, and hope for the best, dreams of graded stakes dancing in your head. I begin wondering, why can these $3,500 horses race so often without breakdowns? They look great, are they all that different from the other horses we see? What would happen if we dropped them into a race beyond the existing class? I check the winning times, they are not so drastically different.
I realize thats folly, but then I got to thinking about the variables to racing a horse, training, feed, et al. Made me think about a recent movie where a son was born into a poor family, and the father sent him off to "change his stars". By changing variables, can we make these cheap claimers better than they are? Hence the question...
" If you claimed the cheapest, heaviest raced 3 year old possible... say in a $3500 claimer (off an unknown trainer) and turned him out for 3 solid months? Then, got him back into racing form with one of the worlds best trainers (pick one, Mott, Pletcher, whover you like).
What do you think would happen?"
-
Tairaterces
- Grade III Winner
- Posts: 1026
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:27 am
- Location: NorCal
dray33,
Check out this thread in the General Discussion:
http://www.pedigreequery.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7486
Anything is possible . . . . . . . . . . . (within reason, I suppose)
Tairaterces
Check out this thread in the General Discussion:
http://www.pedigreequery.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7486
Anything is possible . . . . . . . . . . . (within reason, I suppose)
Tairaterces
"and Secretariat let no one down on the unforgettable afternoon of June 9, 1973, when he ran a hole in the wind"
~Bob Ehalt~
Avatar: Istabraq (Sadler's Wells x Betty's Secret by Secretariat) Champion Hurdler
~Bob Ehalt~
Avatar: Istabraq (Sadler's Wells x Betty's Secret by Secretariat) Champion Hurdler
Hey Dray,
If you truly think a horse is worth a shot for 3500$ im pretty sure you could buy it privately for cheaper and turn it out.I think the problem you would have is getting an elite type trainer to take a horse like that IMO.LSB brought up a good point.Horses can improve dramatically when all the angles are covered and put into a program that works for individuals horses unlike a lot of trainers at smaller crappier tracks where they are all treated the same and corners are cut.I once bought a 7 year old gelding for 468$ (it was all the money i had in my pocket) that hadnt won in 4 years.He had even got beat for 1500 claiming in the bushes.I used to care for this horse when he was a 2 year old and he was stakes placed as a baby.To make a long story short he changed hands many times throughout the years and ended up being in the bushes.After I bought the horse i walked him until i couldnt walk him no more and got him reshod,teeth done,wormed him and fed him all he could eat.He must have gained 200 pounds in two months.When I finally decided to run him about 10 weeks later I had him in a NW/yr for 4,000 claiming and he was 70-1 and ran second beaten a length.I ran him back 3 weeks later and he won by 11 lengths.He ended up winning 2 more races for me before the end of the meet and was claimed for 8,000$!So if you have the money and are willing to invest it take a shot!
Ryeno
If you truly think a horse is worth a shot for 3500$ im pretty sure you could buy it privately for cheaper and turn it out.I think the problem you would have is getting an elite type trainer to take a horse like that IMO.LSB brought up a good point.Horses can improve dramatically when all the angles are covered and put into a program that works for individuals horses unlike a lot of trainers at smaller crappier tracks where they are all treated the same and corners are cut.I once bought a 7 year old gelding for 468$ (it was all the money i had in my pocket) that hadnt won in 4 years.He had even got beat for 1500 claiming in the bushes.I used to care for this horse when he was a 2 year old and he was stakes placed as a baby.To make a long story short he changed hands many times throughout the years and ended up being in the bushes.After I bought the horse i walked him until i couldnt walk him no more and got him reshod,teeth done,wormed him and fed him all he could eat.He must have gained 200 pounds in two months.When I finally decided to run him about 10 weeks later I had him in a NW/yr for 4,000 claiming and he was 70-1 and ran second beaten a length.I ran him back 3 weeks later and he won by 11 lengths.He ended up winning 2 more races for me before the end of the meet and was claimed for 8,000$!So if you have the money and are willing to invest it take a shot!
Ryeno
"The easiest way to end up with a million dollars in the horseracing business is to start with 3 million!"
UmmYeah wrote:Well, as a Red Sox fan, I too feel a hard cry coming on. However, I guess I also feel that Damon is pretty overrated and that his best years probably aren't in front of him. So I guess I'm getting a bit philosophical and feeling glad we got a few good years out of him. So best of luck to you with him, but I feel (and hope!) that he's another high-priced Yankee flop.
I feel less outnumbered now.
I think how horses are treated has a lot to do with how they run. Given, the vast majority of cheap claimers are duds, however, if you found a good tough one that was always there and did the challange with it, I think you would end up with a very good horse. I guess the key is to find a horse that is game and do your best to make them able.
The farm I manage doesn't breed the best to the best (more often he's breeding for conformation more than anything else)... our owner is honest about that. But he trains them smart and he trains them well... and they win in Chicago (not ALL of them, but they do well enough.) They get time off when they need it (sometimes they just come home for a week or two for 'vacation'). What I'm trying to say is that they out run their potential.
I watched a filly for quite some time... the trainer who had her didn't have a CLUE, but she had thrown in some good races suggesting she was something better. Someone claimed her for $3,500 and she won 3 allowances that summer, she broke $100k with that trainer the next year(meaning she won over $60k for the new owners). All of that was good training and husbandry.
BTW - remember that a lot of those claimers are cheap because they hurt. Problem is once you throw out the disabled ones... you don't have a lot left. A year of turnout might turn some of those horses around... but who wants to wait that long on a cheap horse?
But you never know. I have a filly here whose last race was awful due to a fetlock problem. Stall rest, then turnout in a small paddock, now turnout with a large group. No heat, swelling, or pain in the fetlock... she's gained broodmare volumes of weight and is very sassy... she's ready to go back in about a month... which would make about 3 months total layoff. (Of course, she'll get x-rayed and be in slow training... probably won't race
until well into the Arlington meet).
~Adrienne
The farm I manage doesn't breed the best to the best (more often he's breeding for conformation more than anything else)... our owner is honest about that. But he trains them smart and he trains them well... and they win in Chicago (not ALL of them, but they do well enough.) They get time off when they need it (sometimes they just come home for a week or two for 'vacation'). What I'm trying to say is that they out run their potential.
I watched a filly for quite some time... the trainer who had her didn't have a CLUE, but she had thrown in some good races suggesting she was something better. Someone claimed her for $3,500 and she won 3 allowances that summer, she broke $100k with that trainer the next year(meaning she won over $60k for the new owners). All of that was good training and husbandry.
BTW - remember that a lot of those claimers are cheap because they hurt. Problem is once you throw out the disabled ones... you don't have a lot left. A year of turnout might turn some of those horses around... but who wants to wait that long on a cheap horse?
But you never know. I have a filly here whose last race was awful due to a fetlock problem. Stall rest, then turnout in a small paddock, now turnout with a large group. No heat, swelling, or pain in the fetlock... she's gained broodmare volumes of weight and is very sassy... she's ready to go back in about a month... which would make about 3 months total layoff. (Of course, she'll get x-rayed and be in slow training... probably won't race
until well into the Arlington meet).
~Adrienne
The point I was trying to make is that a cheap horse with almost always be a cheap horse, no matter what you do.
Yes, rest and a change of trainer/jockey can make a difference, but the odds of finding a $3.5k claimer who turns into a stakes winner are slim and a lot of that comes from finding the right trainer, not the best trainer. In some cases, the right trainer is not found because he may be at the opposite end of the country. The truly GREAT ones only really have one trainer. Ask yourself how good Ghostzapper or Cigar would have been if they'd been trained by Lukas or Baffert?
Yes, rest and a change of trainer/jockey can make a difference, but the odds of finding a $3.5k claimer who turns into a stakes winner are slim and a lot of that comes from finding the right trainer, not the best trainer. In some cases, the right trainer is not found because he may be at the opposite end of the country. The truly GREAT ones only really have one trainer. Ask yourself how good Ghostzapper or Cigar would have been if they'd been trained by Lukas or Baffert?