Conduit profiles and playing the races

[Bill from WA]

Hi all

I am in the process of fine tuning my "Profile Betting System".
I am playing Calder today, and without consulting Past Performances, just using a formula that reduces the profiles to a two digit number, I have hit the winner of 4 out of the first 6 races with my top choice (two of them at 6 to 1), and 1 winner with my second choice. In the 7th (coming up soon) I have as my top two choices, # 11 Awol Soldier, and #10 Stormy Jim. In the 8th I have #1 Lucky Tip, and #4 Diamondsintheway. In the 9th I have #2 Riot Alert and #5 Honest Expectation. In the 10th I have #2 As Himself, and #4 All About Heart. Let's see if this post jinxes me.
These numbers have been working very well so far.

Bill

[Bill from WA]

Hi

My top pick, Awol Soldier ran 3rd at 17 to 1. My 3rd pick ran 2nd at 21-1 and my 4th pick ran 4th. The winner #3, Wood Be Willing, has a very odd profile, and was hard to get a handle on (more work). Didn't cash here (betting win/place)

Bill

[Bill from WA]

8th race. None of my top 4 finished in the money, although my top pick, Lucky Trip, had anything but that. Broke slow, and steadied hard in the back stretch. I don't think he would have challenged the winner anyway. Hope the 9th and 10th races go better.

[Denise]

Interesting to see your results so far.
We use Brisnet to handicap our races and others, because it's pure number and statistic crunching: no editorial at all. Seems to work quite well with off tracks and maiden races (when you have little but dam's stats. i.e., progeny to race/win, to go on.)
Good luck with it.

[Bill from WA]

9th race.
Top pick ran 3rd (by a nose) no excuses, 2nd pick ran 2nd, and 3rd pick ran 4th.
Toss the ticket.

Bill

[Bill from WA]

10th race.
4th pick won, 2nd pick ran third, 3rd pick ran 4th. Top pick ran dead last.
All in all, for my top picks, I had 4 winners, 2 thirds, 3 fifths and one who ran last. All without looking at past performances.
On Dec. 23 I played Turf Paradise races 3 - 9, and had 4 winners and 3 second place runners, cashing in on every race. I bet $5 win and place that day. Today I played $20 win/place and came out with a profit of $165. Again, this was without using past performances. The profiles are designed to be used "WITH PP's", as an accompaniment, something like Byers or Ragozin numbers, or in conjunction George Smith's successful GSV scores.
My test runs are just to see how well the profiles, and the adapted handicapping formulas, stand alone.

Bill

[Bill from WA]

I started posting free picks on the Conduit Mare website on Saturday and will be posting a free pick every Tuesday and Saturday. Saturdays pick won at odds on, and todays pick (8th race at Turf Paradise) also won at odds on. I also gave out the winning superfecta today ($341.50). All based on the profiles.

Bill

[Denise]

How about a test run at Philly? Maybe Friday's card?

[Bill from WA]

OK Denise. Will do. I'll try to have them up by 9AM Eastern, Friday morning.

Bill

[Elusive City]

Bill

well I consider myself a real good handicapper.

My pedigree knowledge is used mostly in maiden races and first turfers.
Once a hoss establishes form maybe 20% of my handicapping comes from pedigree.

I would use your numbers freely in MSW were pedigree is about 75% of the game. But I even use pedigree in Grade 1 races. (shhhh don't tell my sheet playing pals OK.)

PS--I loved AWOL soldier but the 3 came flying. that hoss can motor.

[Bill from WA]

Hi Elusive City

The use of these profiles is based on the premise that the connections for the horses are running them where they have a reasonable expectation of giving them a return on their investment. The profiles compare the optimum aptitudinal ranges of each entry against their competition. Some fit the distance and surface on that particular day more than others. The reduced profiles, hopefully, will isolate the most competitive runners on that surface and at that distance, and eliminate those that don't figure with this particular field. It doesn't always work, but nothing in handicapping is 100%. This information gives you a leg up on the competition. So far well over 40% winners.

Bill

[Denise]

It is raining quite a bit today, so I expect the track condition will be good to muddy for Friday's card, if that has any influence in your mare profiling.

[Bill from WA]

Thank you Denise. Off tracks are factored into the process. I did the card at The Fairgrounds meet at LAD yesterday and only had two winners and two seconds in the 10 races. This was the worst that I have done so far, but did end up with a small profit for the day. Hope tomorrow goes better.

Bill

[BenB]

Bill can you sort this one out for next saturday, it might be a decisioner
in the race for the champion jockey title in Germany.
Glad to be fast IRE versus Tiberius Ceasar track sand condition race 7,5 furlong place Neuss Last time they meet in Deauville FR 5 lenghts between them weight equal. Now Glad to be Fast is giving Tiberius Ceasar 4 lbs european weights 57,5 versus 55,5 kg
others not interesting. GAG 92,5 versus 92.
The sand track will be muddy because of the melting snow.

[Bill from WA]

Hi Ben

I would give the slightest edge to Tiberius Caesar. Only one point separates them in my figures. Should be a real horserace.

Bill