Bluegrass Cat won the Sam F Davis Stakes this weekend at Tampa Bay and Pletcher says he'll run him next in the Tampa Bay Derby.
There is a lot to like about these three. Pletcher and Velazquez are this years Eclipse winners andthe Bluegrass Cat won the Nashua and the Remsen last year. He was ranked at 115lbs on the Experimental Free Handicap, which I thought was a bit low. The Performance Rates have him above Your Tent Or Mine who was weighted at 119lbs on the EFH, so you've got to figure he is at least 119 and therefore a Dual Qualifier.
http://jockeyclub.com/experimental.asp
http://thoroughbredtimes.com/performance_rates/performancerates.asp
As it goes, I'm thinkin' Pletcher is running him at Tampa Bay because the racetrack surface there may be a bit kinder and gentler on those fragile legs! It'll be interesting to see what this son of Storm Cat has got for em' come the real running on those blistering fast surfaces.[/u]
Pletcher, Velazquez and The Bluegrass Cat
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Whirlaway
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Pletcher, Velazquez and The Bluegrass Cat
Last edited by Whirlaway on Tue Mar 14, 2006 6:22 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
Re: Pletcher, Velazquez and the Bluegrass Cat
hi Whirlaway
The Ky Derby is approx 11 weeks away...and I sense that racing at Tampa Bay vs running at Gulfstream Park (in preparation for the classics) suggests that BGCat is probably more of a classics pretender than a classics contender.
Respectfully
Possibly...but I might be more apt to believe that Pletcher wants to keep Bluegrass Cat clear of the big dogs as long as possible.Whirlaway wrote:I'm thinkin' Pletcher is running (Bluegrass Cat) at Tampa Bay because the racetrack surface there may be a bit kinder and gentler on those fragile legs!
The Ky Derby is approx 11 weeks away...and I sense that racing at Tampa Bay vs running at Gulfstream Park (in preparation for the classics) suggests that BGCat is probably more of a classics pretender than a classics contender.
Surfaces aside...I have my doubts about any three-year-old that intends to go through Tampa Bay en route to the classics.Whirlaway wrote:It'll be interesting to see what this son of Storm Cat has got for em' come the real running on those blistering fast surfaces.
Respectfully
A lot of horsemen like the surface at Tampa. And for what it's worth, Pletcher says Bluegrass Cat is his best three-yr-old. I'm rooting for him b/c he's a half-bro to one of my current favorites Lord of the Game, but I could see why some might think he still needs to prove himself.
Keyed Entry is by far his fastest three-yr-old. I know he carried six less pounds than First Samurai, but that was still a FAST race. Sneaky pedigree too, check out the Rf to Grand Splendor. He could be any kind.
Keyed Entry is by far his fastest three-yr-old. I know he carried six less pounds than First Samurai, but that was still a FAST race. Sneaky pedigree too, check out the Rf to Grand Splendor. He could be any kind.
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Whirlaway
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FOS,
NO doubt the road to the roses that goes through Tampa Bay is the road less travelled and any horse going through TB is suspect. The average winning distance for Storm Cat sons and daughters is 7.72fl and he has few classic winners in North America. Most things considered, he looks, as you wrote, the pretender not a contender.
Lets take a closer look at it. The Bluegrass Cat wins the Remsen and the Nashua. His performance in the Nashua was the third best performance for two-year-old stakes winners. He comes in at 115 on the EFH, which I believe was low. I figure he is a Dual Qualifier and ranked in the top five in this crop. I believe he was a yearling purchase for about 450k, nice litte chunk. Thus far he has earned 274k so the owners need a couple hundred more K to break even. They keep him safe, run him in the TB Derby, earn a few more bucks while chalking up another black type victory all the while raising his stud fee. Appears to be a dual strategy.
I believe the connections are keen on getting him to the Kentucky Derby Gate, which has proved to be no easy feat considering the breakdown nature of the modern thoroughbred. Pletcher has him safe and sound and come the running for the Derby, should he make it, I figure he'll be a contender.
NO doubt the road to the roses that goes through Tampa Bay is the road less travelled and any horse going through TB is suspect. The average winning distance for Storm Cat sons and daughters is 7.72fl and he has few classic winners in North America. Most things considered, he looks, as you wrote, the pretender not a contender.
Lets take a closer look at it. The Bluegrass Cat wins the Remsen and the Nashua. His performance in the Nashua was the third best performance for two-year-old stakes winners. He comes in at 115 on the EFH, which I believe was low. I figure he is a Dual Qualifier and ranked in the top five in this crop. I believe he was a yearling purchase for about 450k, nice litte chunk. Thus far he has earned 274k so the owners need a couple hundred more K to break even. They keep him safe, run him in the TB Derby, earn a few more bucks while chalking up another black type victory all the while raising his stud fee. Appears to be a dual strategy.
I believe the connections are keen on getting him to the Kentucky Derby Gate, which has proved to be no easy feat considering the breakdown nature of the modern thoroughbred. Pletcher has him safe and sound and come the running for the Derby, should he make it, I figure he'll be a contender.
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
hi Whirlaway...hi Ill-bred
Fair comments (re: Bluegrass Cat and his trainer Pletcher etc)...but...
...I still question why Bluegrass Cat is racing at Tampa Bay right now. Apparently the intention (short term anyway) is to continue there, and aim for the Tampa Bay Derby. To me that raises the question...what kind of colt is Bluegrass Cat really? Tampa Bay...hmmm.
Ill-bred wrote "And for what it's worth, Pletcher says Bluegrass Cat is his best three-yr-old." Maybe so...but that doesn't mean he's a TOP three-year-old...just his best three-year-old. Maybe Pletcher doesn't have much in the way of 3-year-olds in the barn (right now) if that's the case...and/or maybe he's saying all the right things so that when the horse is finished (some day) there are some good quotes that can be lifted for advertising purposes...who knows. I'm skeptical...Tampa Bay...the road to the Kentucky Derby...hmmm.
It would surprise me if Winstar, the owner of Bluegrass Cat, would take a Tampa Bay route to the classics if they were convinced that they had a TOP Ky Derby contender. Seems to me more like they're trying to (at the very least) play it safe and get some more black-type (regardless of quality) for their BEAUTIFULLY-bred Bluegrass Cat, so that if and when he is sidelined and/or finished and/or is left in the dust (if he takes on the big dogs) they'll have something to fall back on and talk about. Not a bad thing, I just sense that if Pletcher and Winstar thought BGCat was the real deal...he wouldn't be racing at Tampa Bay Downs.
From my perspective...Tampa Bay black-type does not do a whole lot (if anything) for any prospective stallion's future at stud...including Bluegrass Cat. I suggest he must win and/or place in some quality graded races (as a three-year-old and/or older) at more highly regarded tracks than Tampa Bay, and hopefully vs TOP company, if BGCat's connections expect to justify much in the way of a stud fee and attract much in the way of support from breeders...upon his retirement to stud. Winning the Sam Davis (at Tampa Bay) and the Tampa Bay Derby will do little (if anything) to add lustre to Bluegrass Cat's value as a stallion. Of course, what he looks like physically will come into play also.
Yes Bluegrass Cat has a HUGE pedigree and is a nice horse. Regardless...right now, at this point in his three-year-old career, I sense it might be fair to describe BGCat as a good (maybe very good) second stringer (3-yo) whose connections have hopes (and maybe dreams) of moving him up to the first team.
BGCAt showed us something as a two-year-old...but arguably he's yet to define himself as a TOP three-year-old and/or a serious classics contender. I wish him and his connections the best...but I need to see more...a lot more.
Tampa Bay...hmmm.
Respectfully
Fair comments (re: Bluegrass Cat and his trainer Pletcher etc)...but...
...I still question why Bluegrass Cat is racing at Tampa Bay right now. Apparently the intention (short term anyway) is to continue there, and aim for the Tampa Bay Derby. To me that raises the question...what kind of colt is Bluegrass Cat really? Tampa Bay...hmmm.
Ill-bred wrote "And for what it's worth, Pletcher says Bluegrass Cat is his best three-yr-old." Maybe so...but that doesn't mean he's a TOP three-year-old...just his best three-year-old. Maybe Pletcher doesn't have much in the way of 3-year-olds in the barn (right now) if that's the case...and/or maybe he's saying all the right things so that when the horse is finished (some day) there are some good quotes that can be lifted for advertising purposes...who knows. I'm skeptical...Tampa Bay...the road to the Kentucky Derby...hmmm.
It would surprise me if Winstar, the owner of Bluegrass Cat, would take a Tampa Bay route to the classics if they were convinced that they had a TOP Ky Derby contender. Seems to me more like they're trying to (at the very least) play it safe and get some more black-type (regardless of quality) for their BEAUTIFULLY-bred Bluegrass Cat, so that if and when he is sidelined and/or finished and/or is left in the dust (if he takes on the big dogs) they'll have something to fall back on and talk about. Not a bad thing, I just sense that if Pletcher and Winstar thought BGCat was the real deal...he wouldn't be racing at Tampa Bay Downs.
From my perspective...Tampa Bay black-type does not do a whole lot (if anything) for any prospective stallion's future at stud...including Bluegrass Cat. I suggest he must win and/or place in some quality graded races (as a three-year-old and/or older) at more highly regarded tracks than Tampa Bay, and hopefully vs TOP company, if BGCat's connections expect to justify much in the way of a stud fee and attract much in the way of support from breeders...upon his retirement to stud. Winning the Sam Davis (at Tampa Bay) and the Tampa Bay Derby will do little (if anything) to add lustre to Bluegrass Cat's value as a stallion. Of course, what he looks like physically will come into play also.
Yes Bluegrass Cat has a HUGE pedigree and is a nice horse. Regardless...right now, at this point in his three-year-old career, I sense it might be fair to describe BGCat as a good (maybe very good) second stringer (3-yo) whose connections have hopes (and maybe dreams) of moving him up to the first team.
BGCAt showed us something as a two-year-old...but arguably he's yet to define himself as a TOP three-year-old and/or a serious classics contender. I wish him and his connections the best...but I need to see more...a lot more.
Tampa Bay...hmmm.
Respectfully
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Whirlaway
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I agree, in his last out the Bluegrass Cat did demonstrate his tenacity but he also demonstrated the ability to rate. That ability to sit patiently while possessing strategic speed is not easy to find in these modern day speed horses. I don't know if I've seen that ability in the other Derby contenders thus far this year.
What may prove to be most interesting is how well he does going to the faster surfaces. Will he benefit or will he suffer?
What may prove to be most interesting is how well he does going to the faster surfaces. Will he benefit or will he suffer?
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
hi Whirlaway
Maybe the field in the Sam Davis included some future stars, but I am not convinced (yet) that BGCat's as special as some others seem to think.
Respectfully
Yes he did.Whirlaway wrote: (Bluegrass Cat)...demonstrated the ability to rate.
A rare commodity.Whirlaway wrote: That ability to sit patiently while possessing strategic speed is not easy to find in these modern day speed horses.
Maybe so, but from my perspective a second stringer can look like a super horse vs third stringers.Whirlaway wrote: I don't know if I've seen that ability in the other Derby contenders thus far this year.
Maybe the field in the Sam Davis included some future stars, but I am not convinced (yet) that BGCat's as special as some others seem to think.
Fair enough...but I'm MUCH more interested to see how he fares versus TOP competition...which I don't believe we saw in the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay Downs.Whirlaway wrote:What may prove to be most interesting is how well he does going to the faster surfaces.
Respectfully
Even if a horse is really good, wouldn't running them against horses that are too inferior really leave their wheels spinning from shock in the Derby? Could they theoretically lose just because they weren't mentally prepared for it when on any other day, with a good prior matchup even if they'd lost, they'd be much more ready for it? He could have all the talent and end up really frustrated.
"Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana"
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Whirlaway
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I like Private Vow to win the Derby andthe Bluegrass Cat was my second choice. Hard to say what's goin' on w/PV. As it goes at this present time, I figure they've got to beat Brother Derek.
Now back to the Bluegrass Cat. If you haven't done so already, I invite you to take a look at the replay of the Sam F Davis at this link:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/derby_videos/
What I found intersting was the length of his stride at the first turn and down the backstretch chompin' at the bit. Good job by the jockey here to get him to settle. At the top of the stretch he's about four wide, comes to the leader and gives him a nudge, gets two pops of the whip the rest hand ride. This guy is game. I think this win is deceptive in that he only runs as fast as necessary to beat this bunch. Pletcher and JohnnyV figure they've got to save as much energy as possible for the big dogs.
(By the way who are these big dogs you speak of?)
The Bluegrass Cat gets the Sam F Davis in stakes record time and 4/5ths off the track record in what amounted to a hand ride. I checked and the Tampa Bay Derby is March 18. I figure one more on a fast track against these big dogs that you speak of and then onto the Derby.
Now back to the Bluegrass Cat. If you haven't done so already, I invite you to take a look at the replay of the Sam F Davis at this link:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/derby_videos/
What I found intersting was the length of his stride at the first turn and down the backstretch chompin' at the bit. Good job by the jockey here to get him to settle. At the top of the stretch he's about four wide, comes to the leader and gives him a nudge, gets two pops of the whip the rest hand ride. This guy is game. I think this win is deceptive in that he only runs as fast as necessary to beat this bunch. Pletcher and JohnnyV figure they've got to save as much energy as possible for the big dogs.
(By the way who are these big dogs you speak of?)
The Bluegrass Cat gets the Sam F Davis in stakes record time and 4/5ths off the track record in what amounted to a hand ride. I checked and the Tampa Bay Derby is March 18. I figure one more on a fast track against these big dogs that you speak of and then onto the Derby.
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
hi Whirlaway
Until I see Bluegrass Cat take on 3-yo stakes-horses (maybe even top allowance horses) at what I perceive is a major racing venue...let's say maybe Gulfstream Park or Santa Anita (for example)...I guess I'll have my doubts about him.
Until I see him accomplish something bigger (as a 3-year-old) than winning a stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs (over a 60 to 1 longshot)...I cannot get excited about his classics chances...regardless of his HUGE pedigree and his accomplished connections.
Had Pletcher sent BGCat on a van ride from Tampa Bay Downs to Gulfstream Park...and had BGCat run impressively there...I'd feel a lot more confident about him.
I expect that Pletcher will select what he believes are the appropriate spots for his colt. In choosing Tampa Bay...I sense that Pletcher has exposed what he really thinks of the colt right now.
Best to you.
Respectfully
Until I see Bluegrass Cat take on 3-yo stakes-horses (maybe even top allowance horses) at what I perceive is a major racing venue...let's say maybe Gulfstream Park or Santa Anita (for example)...I guess I'll have my doubts about him.
Until I see him accomplish something bigger (as a 3-year-old) than winning a stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs (over a 60 to 1 longshot)...I cannot get excited about his classics chances...regardless of his HUGE pedigree and his accomplished connections.
Had Pletcher sent BGCat on a van ride from Tampa Bay Downs to Gulfstream Park...and had BGCat run impressively there...I'd feel a lot more confident about him.
I expect that Pletcher will select what he believes are the appropriate spots for his colt. In choosing Tampa Bay...I sense that Pletcher has exposed what he really thinks of the colt right now.
Best to you.
Respectfully
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Whirlaway
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Mornin' fellas,
FOS,
Seems you're having a bit of trouble naming some of those "big dogs", that you speak of at Gulfstream Park. Only one I can think of is First Samurai who was served up a good lickin' last out in the Hutcheson; some doubt his ability around two turns.
And you've posted no response to Blugrass Cat being a dual-graded stakes winner at two and being ranked near the top of his crop on the EFH and not to mention the Performance Rates. Nor have you challenged he ran a stakes record in the Sam F and was 4/5ths off the track record and I forgot to mention and if my memory serves me correctly, he ran the last quarter in 24 n/c and the last one hundred ten yards in 6.5 seconds. Oh and don't forget the jockey and trainer are back to back Eclipse Award winners.
hmmm ....
Respectfully
FOS,
Seems you're having a bit of trouble naming some of those "big dogs", that you speak of at Gulfstream Park. Only one I can think of is First Samurai who was served up a good lickin' last out in the Hutcheson; some doubt his ability around two turns.
And you've posted no response to Blugrass Cat being a dual-graded stakes winner at two and being ranked near the top of his crop on the EFH and not to mention the Performance Rates. Nor have you challenged he ran a stakes record in the Sam F and was 4/5ths off the track record and I forgot to mention and if my memory serves me correctly, he ran the last quarter in 24 n/c and the last one hundred ten yards in 6.5 seconds. Oh and don't forget the jockey and trainer are back to back Eclipse Award winners.
hmmm ....
Respectfully
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
hi Whirlaway
Maybe BGCat is a Big Dog (I certainly wish him and his connections all the best) but I suggest he won't convince many of that (including me)...until he steps up to a bigger plate and faces the 3-yo competition at a major venue...such as Gulfstream Park (which he is just a relatively short van ride away from).
I'm not saying BGCat's nothing...he definitely has ability...but when a trainer such as Pletcher and an owner such as Winstar choose to race a supposed Kentucky Derby hopeful at Tampa Bay Downs instead of Gulfstream Park...it seems CLEAR to me that right NOW they don't think (for whatever reasons) the colt is up to the task to acquit himself well versus what he might likely face at Gulfstream. Simple as that.
I sense that Pletcher is not convinced (right now) that the colt can handle (at least not yet) some of the 3-year-old stock at Gulfstream Park that he'd most likely have to face there...and right now he wants to keep the colt clear of a probable "lickin" (your word) he might receive there. Thus...destination Tampa Bay.
Who knows for sure though...BGCat could prove to be the real deal...but I have my doubts right now; Tampa Bay Downs...hmmm.
Respectfully
Seems like you strengthen my position, to the extent that I expect if Pletcher thought for a minute that Bluegrass Cat could hand the 3-year-olds (including classics hopefuls) at Gulfstream Park a "lickin" (your word)...he'd be racing him there...not at LOWLY (in the competition category) Tampa Bay Downs.Whirlaway wrote:Seems you're having a bit of trouble naming some of those "big dogs", that you speak of at Gulfstream Park. Only one I can think of is First Samurai who was served up a good lickin' last out in the Hutcheson; some doubt his ability around two turns.
Maybe BGCat is a Big Dog (I certainly wish him and his connections all the best) but I suggest he won't convince many of that (including me)...until he steps up to a bigger plate and faces the 3-yo competition at a major venue...such as Gulfstream Park (which he is just a relatively short van ride away from).
From my perspective, until BGCat races as a 3-yo at a MAJOR track...and faces the good 3-year-olds on the grounds...it's a lot of TALK.Whirlaway wrote: And you've posted no response to Blugrass Cat being a dual-graded stakes winner at two and being ranked near the top of his crop on the EFH and not to mention the Performance Rates.
I'm not saying BGCat's nothing...he definitely has ability...but when a trainer such as Pletcher and an owner such as Winstar choose to race a supposed Kentucky Derby hopeful at Tampa Bay Downs instead of Gulfstream Park...it seems CLEAR to me that right NOW they don't think (for whatever reasons) the colt is up to the task to acquit himself well versus what he might likely face at Gulfstream. Simple as that.
Whirlaway...running 4/5ths short of a track record at Tampa Bay Downs approaches meaningless (the way I see it). Respectfully...the level of racing there often approaches the lowest rung, as far as I'm concerned. Regardless...reality is BGCat won a nice little stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs over a 60 to 1 shot.Whirlaway wrote: Nor have you challenged he ran a stakes record in the Sam F and was 4/5ths off the track record and I forgot to mention and if my memory serves me correctly, he ran the last quarter in 24 n/c and the last one hundred ten yards in 6.5 seconds.
Nice duo, but I suggest if Bluegrass Cat was a horse that Pletcher had Big Dog confidence in, he'd be racing at Gulfstream Park....not at Tampa Bay Downs.Whirlaway wrote: Oh and don't forget the jockey and trainer are back to back Eclipse Award winners.
I sense that Pletcher is not convinced (right now) that the colt can handle (at least not yet) some of the 3-year-old stock at Gulfstream Park that he'd most likely have to face there...and right now he wants to keep the colt clear of a probable "lickin" (your word) he might receive there. Thus...destination Tampa Bay.
No hmmms about it...right now I place Bluegrass Cat in the classics pretenders category. Furthermore...I suggest that Tampa Bay Downs is NOT a venue that (in general) will enhance a prospective stallions value. Gulfstream Park is, can and does.Whirlaway wrote:hmmm...
Who knows for sure though...BGCat could prove to be the real deal...but I have my doubts right now; Tampa Bay Downs...hmmm.
Respectfully