Bandini's Back

[austique]

I'm psyched!

http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32321

I keep forgetting to be nice.

[LSB]

I've been following his works. I really hope he does well.

[austique]

Silver Train is kind of a nasty opponent for his first start back.

[FOS]

hi guys

I suspect that Bandini's back at the track mainly because the Coolmore guys need a Fusaichi Pegasus runner to talk about, and no other reason. It appears that Bandini is the only current FuPeg runner (that really did anything to write about) that's out there right now...certainly the only one that they control...and arguably Coolmore's game is primarily advertising and promoting their stallions to generate stud fee income...and they need something to write about in their advertisements.

Think about it for a moment...Bandini's NOT a champion caliber racehorse (although maybe a miracle will happen this year, but I recommend don't hold your breath)...and maybe (if he stays together for a couple of races) Bandini might run up $250k or maybe even $1mil+ in earnings (although I expect that's probably optimistic).

That said...I am confident the Coolmore/Ashford team would have preferred to retire Bandini to the stallion ranks and reap income from stud fees of (I'd guess) approx $25k to $30k per live foal (probably not unrealistic as G1 winner Roman Ruler [by FuPeg] stands for $30k). Based on Ashford/Coolmore's style of business I expect (unless there was a problem) he'd cover minimum 150 mares...and recent history seems to support the notion that in excess of 200 mares (in his initial book) would have probably been more likely.

Assuming that minimum 80 stud fees became due and payable (let's be conservative)...and the stud fee was $25k, the math is simple...arguably he'd have earned minimum $2 mil (probably more) in the breeding shed versus maybe a million bucks if he raced successfully. If in excess of 100 or 125 stud fees became due and payable at $25k to $30k per...well you do the math...hmmm.

To my way of thinking Bandini is back at the race track for one reason...and one reason alone...to generate some advertising fodder for his sire Fusaichi Pegasus, who Ashford/Coolmore (I would bet) was not confident would have had another real horse to talk about (going into the 2006 breeding season) to help justify FuPeg's $125k stud fee for 2006.

Bandini was a nice racehorse with a lovely female family...but was not a superstar (at the races) by any stretch of the imagination. Regardless...the Coolmore gang understands the risk they take if Bandini was retired for 2006 and FuPeg doesn't come up with a star to write and talk about...particularly in the early stages of the breeding season.

I suggest that Bandini's hopeful re-emergence at the races in 2006 is more related to fulfilling a FuPeg advertising and promotion strategy than anything else...because without Bandini, right now there's little to talk about that might at least be a rationale for a $125k FuPeg stud fee.

Respectfully

[Eap]

Or it could just be Coolmore sees a lot of potential in what *could have been* last year and they're hoping that translates into this year. Bandini showed flashes of brilliance and if I was his owner i'd give him a shot at 4 as well.

His pedigree and current race record is strong enough to secure a good book in KY by Ashford standards or otherwise, and it just makes sense to give him the chance to increase his value.

Bottom line, yes I think his "value to breeders" is whats front and center, but I think they're confident he can make waves as a 4 year old, and in return, up that value more. Let's be honest, as owners, that's all our M.O.'s.

I think his talent speaks for itsself when you say they need a Fupeg to write about... well obviously, in your own words, Bandini has all the capabilities of producing a lot of 'ink'.

[BenB]

As for his ads fee 125K, FUPEG just needs to come on with a real good one very early in the season. Thats the article about, keeping interest
awake with owners and breeders. Each ten mare less costs more than 1 million.
To be honest they need a victory at gr 1 level.
The writing is calling PR.

[Ill-bred]

They're gonna run him in the allowance race on Wednesday (Race 9) instead of the stake on Saturday.

It's a one-turn mile and he'll be facing Silver Wagon, Wanderin Boy, Record Buster, Dark Cheetah, etc...

Ought to be interesting.

[FOS]

hi Eap

Or it could just be Coolmore sees a lot of potential in what *could have been* last year and they're hoping that translates into this year. Bandini showed flashes of brilliance and if I was his owner i'd give him a shot at 4 as well.

The way I see it...Bandini's return to the races was for one reason and one reason alone...for Ashford/Coolmore to have a G1 winning FuPeg to talk about in their advertisements...for fear there might not be another while going into the 2006 breeding season etc. If Bandini becomes a champion or handicap superstar...great...but, again, I don't expect Coolmore sent him back to the races for that reason.

His pedigree and current race record is strong enough to secure a good book in KY by Ashford standards or otherwise, and it just makes sense to give him the chance to increase his value.

Eap...arguably Bandini's value is NOT going up unless he's a champion and/or handicap superstar. Even then, they've already left (approx) between $2mil and $4mil behind by not retiring him for the 2006 breeding season.

Bottom line, yes I think his "value to breeders" is whats front and center, but I think they're confident he can make waves as a 4 year old, and in return, up that value more.

Eap...what would Bandini have to accomplish to "up that value more" (your words) and justify his racing in 2006 versus retiring to stud in 2006 (and generating approx $2mil to $4mil in income there)? The risk...reward ratio doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense.

I submit that it's FuPeg that needs the "ink"(your word) Right Now, MUCH moreso than Bandini...but unless Bandini accomplishes something new and special to talk about and write about in the FuPeg advertisements, the strategy (of sending him back to the races in 2006) could backfire completely. Consider this...Bandini cannot recoup the $2mil to $4mil in stud fee income that he could have generated if retired to stud this year...he could need some resuscitation (which could affect his appeal and stud fee) when he enters stud later (if he doesn't get the job done at the races this year)...and FuPeg could get no benefit from the exercise of sending his son Bandini back to the track (in hopes of creating some positive fodder for FuPeg advertisements etc) if he doesn't impress big-time. Possible Ouch...Ouch and Ouch again.

Let's be honest, as owners, that's all our M.O.'s.

...but in the case of Ashford/Coolmore they have a $125k stud fee to attempt to justify or rationalize (re: FuPeg)...and without Big-Time results and Big-Time racehorses by FuPeg...the bloom on the flower can quickly wilt.

I think his talent speaks for itsself when you say they need a Fupeg to write about... well obviously, in your own words, Bandini has all the capabilities of producing a lot of 'ink'.

That's not exactly what I wrote...regardless, Bandini is a G1 winner and arguably there's not much else out there Right Now to help justify or even rationalize a $125k stud fee for his sire (Fusaichi Pegasus).

I tip my hat to Team Ashford/Coolmore...they've evaluated the situation and done what they thought was the right thing. Certainly FuPeg needs some help Right Now to justify and/or rationalize his $125k stud fee. The way I see it...the decision to send Bandini back to the races was about FuPeg (and attempting to protect their investment in him). Arguably young FuPeg's reputation as a sire is still being defined (and is arguably somewhat fragile). That's understandable (from my perspective)...and I expect that it's probably fair to say that unless he consistently sires TOP class racehorses (and a good percentage to boot) he'll be under scrutiny. I suggest his current stud fee demands it.

A G1 caliber horse (by FuPeg) to talk about might help reduce the pressure... voila, Bandini goes back to the races...hopefully to fill a void and relieve some pressure.

Best to you.

Respectfully

[Ill-bred]

I'm trying to think of some other Fupegs out there that could be poised to do something in '06.

I have heard some good things about Superfly.

Andromeda seems to be a G2 or G3 animal.

Talented?

Ummmmm.....not much else that I know of. Kinda sparse for 125K stud fee and 467 foals of racing age. (204 starters, 100 winners, 14 stakes winners, 5 GSW)

[austique]

Whats more scary is that this year he's had 110 starters with 261 starts and they've managed only 31 wins. Ouch! That means that every time one of FuPeg's progeny go to the gate this year they have a 12% chance of winning. Its interesting to see that Coolmore's scattershot approach to mating can topple even a super buzz horse like FuPeg who really even with his sort of soft first dam and spotty race record should have had every chance to be a really good sire given the mares and the hype he got. So should he get ready for sushi or chocolates?

Here's to hoping that Bandini and Superfly are well...Superfly!

[Morningside]

Ill-bred, please try to exercise some intellect before you slap on some irrelevant and misleading stats... of those 467 foals, 125 of them are 2YO's that have not started and another 125 just-turned 3YO's, of which maybe half have started. so those figures you just posted mean absolutely nothing.
if you look at fupeg's first crop of 89 foals, he's had 7 SW (8%), it's not super impressive, but it's respectable.
Bandini might be missing 2M+ in fees for the year, but the attention he generates from winning a couple of races might get 10-20 mares to fupeg and make coolmore a nice 1.25-2.5M...

[Ill-bred]

Morningside-

The figures I posted are factually correct. I simply posted them, and did not attempt to explain their meaning. Of course it includes two-year-olds and those should be backed out when evaluating performace. The three-year-olds should also be considered, but they are fair game.

But I would argue these numbers have a little more merit than you're letting on. Even if you give Fupeg all the breaks a young sire is entitled to, his numbers are still not very impressive considering his book of mares and 125k stud fee, wouldn't you agree?

[austique]

Cutting the 2yo's of which 14 have already started. Fupeg has the following:

296 foals 3yo and up
190 starters (64%)
95 winners (32%)
13 stakes winners (4%)
5 graded stakes winners (1.7%)


I think there is a lot of postulating about well he may have 3yo's that haven't started etc., but the fact is this horse flat out is not worth the stud fee if you were breeding to produce a racehorse. His foals have not been successful when they have started this year. Although he does a have a stakes winner this year already which the equally overpriced Giant's Causeway does not. I think the point being made is a valid one. To have that kind of stud fee you need to back it up with a "hot" horse and FuPeg doesn't have one this year and there haven't been any whispers of one. He desperately needs Bandini to come up big or somebody else to step out of the wings.

Come to think of it Giant's Causeway won't have anything sexy this year either if First Samurai has the distance limitations Bailey hinted he did.

[Ill-bred]

Morningside-

You shorted your stallion. Fupeg has 171 current two-year-olds, not 125, according to my figures.

14 have started, four have won and one has won a stake.

So back all that out and here's what he looks like:

296 foals (including current three-yr-olds)
190 starters (64%)
96 winners (32%)
13 stakes winners (4.4%)

125k stud fee

Thoughts?

[Ill-bred]

Austique we both did that at the same time...