Private Vow: Will Two Preps be Enough?

[Whirlaway]

Workouts:

2/5 5fl B - 1:03.60
2/12 5fl H - 1:01.20
2/20 6fl B - 1:15.20
2/27 6fl H - 1:14.40
3/6 6fl H - 1:13.60

The times indicate he is starting to come around but he's well short of racing trim. I'd like to see a 7fl work in there somewhere or a 6fl work at racing speed. I'd like to read some comments from the trainers out there about these works. He runs in the Rebel on 3/18 and then in the Arkansas Derby on 4/15. Will the workouts and two preps be enough to handle Brother Derek, The Bluegrass Cat and Corinthian? Will those three be past their peak?

Interestingly ... none of them are serious dominant racehorses as described by wilf and none are considered contenders for the Triple Crown. Sadly and a matter of factly, this is just another group of speed demon also rans trying to hold it together and make it to the Kentucky Derby starting gate, all hoping for a good trip and a lucky win.

The great dominant racehorses ... they are long gone.

[louis finochio]

I have been researching pedigrees to find the answer to why their hasnt been many more great TB and TC winners in our present time.

I have come to believe that those great TB of the past had many breeding patterns going for them.

The one breeding pattern that sticks out is they had an abundance of non-(Phalaris) sire lines that gave them an outcross to accomplish their brillant race records.

In todays time frame, a TB breeder can do the above to produce the big horse by using the following breeding patterns.

Lets use an example of what a TB breeder could do by using two line-bred sire lines of (Phalaris) on the stallion side and (Fair Play) on the dams side.

A TB breeder would breed his mare that was line-bred 3 X 4 X 5 to the sire line of (Fair Play) thru In Reality, Relaunch and Intentionally.

When this mare is bred to a (Phalaris) sire line stallion that was line-bred 3 X 4 X 4 to Alydar, Raise a Native and Native Dancer. this mating would be an outcross. As these two families are not related.

I have not seen many of these matings in todays time, but this is the way to restore the hybrid vigor and soundness in our TB of today.

[wilf]

Hi Whirlaway, interesting post concerning Private Vow and his preparation towards the Derby. You asked for a trainers perspective on the work schedule so at great risk of ridicule, here goes.! Its quite possible that he can get the job done with those works as long as two factors are in place. Firstly that his gallops between the weekly works are long, strong and comfortable for him. Secondly how is he galloping out now after the 6 furlong works? I have had several horses of light frame that basically got themselves ready through their gallops and won going long after a good break with only 2 works of 4furls and 5 f out of the gate. If he is a solid beast then he will need much more. Ideally a Whittingham-style strong mile work would put him right on track then.

[Whirlaway]

Louis,

Interesting example of an outcross here Louis and I do believe I undersatnd what you are trying to demonstrate here. Through this outcrossing the breeder might create one of those great beasts of a racehorse from the past! The serious horse wilf speaks of and the one that I missed because I was foaled to late. I appreciate the example here.

Has this outcross pattern been successful in the past?
Is there a physical compatability between these two bloodlines?



wilf,

I'm always keen to read what trainers know. I've only seen pictures of Private Vow, so I don't know if he's a "solid beast." He dosen't look that type in the pictures ... Kinda neat to learn that it is the long gallops between works and how a horse gallops out after the works that will determine if has built up a proper foundation. Only a trainer and those watching would know those things, thanks for the info. I get some info at the Thoroughbred Times and no mention there of any long gallops or how he gallops out. We can only guess. I'll be watcing for that long Whittingham work.

Got a question for ya'. I was at the library yesterday and while passing the stacks of books I saw the Seabiscuit book. Went through it page by page, wow, 70,000 fans at the Big Cap in those days. In it I read that when a horses ears are pricked up, it's a sign that he's running within himself in comparison to when his ears are pinned back, he may be all out. What do you think about this ear thing?

[austique]

When a horse's ears are up and swiveling it generally means the horse is disengaged mentally which can happen when they are traveling along easily and not really being pressured. Horses will tend to pin their ears when challenged.

As for the two preps thing, historically it hasn't worked for Derby horses, but there's a first time for everything

[wilf]

Thats amazing that you should mention that particular charateristic of ears pricked during the running of a race as this ties into another thread where I mentioned watching Alysheba and Ferdinand run in the Big Cap of 88. After the race McCarron said that Ferdinand had one ear forward and one ear back "which was an indication to me that Shoe had something left" < his words>. It was a great race to witness and so was the rematch in the San Bernardino a few weeks later with one of the greatest finishes of all time......and I defy anyone to question that as I have it on video and it still sends shivers into me to this day. Two tough Derby winners, I mean what more could you ask for? Whittingham/Van Berg, Shoemaker/ McCarron. It still devastates me that Ferdinands fate seems to have been clouded in a lost Japanese translation. I wish that he was found on a small Japanese island chewing grass surrounded by adoring fillies.

[summerhorse]

Yeah me too. I just wish they had thought to even advertise him back in the USA. Not a bright move on their part, guess they forgot how popular KY Derby winners are...

[summerhorse]

Oh yeah back to the question, I think probably not!

[louis finochio]

When you look at the pedigree's of past great TB and TC winners you will find the outcross breedi ng patterns that gave these TB their soundness and hybrid vigor to complete their tasks.

The following TB have the successful bloodling affinity or nicks with the (Phalaris) and (Fair Play) outcross.

Toussaud---Bold Ruler---Native Dancer---Smarty Jones---Slew Gin Fizz---Ghostzapper and Key Enterd.