Graded Earnings Leaders and Thoughts on the Derby

[StrawberryFelidos]

I've been looking at the top earners for Derby standings, and, like every year, I approve of some and scratch my head bald at others. So I thought: let's share opinins on who we think belongs, who's a pretender, who we hope gets the graded money and who we hope DROPS on the list so that another horse, hell, any other horse, can get a place

Earnings as of 4/14 and opinions of mine:

1. Discreet Cat: I'd like to see him have a shot, he looked good in UAE, but we all know the history of the DUbai horses at Churchill...

2. Brother Derek: obviously proved he's worthy of a shot in the lineup, but I wonder if his nerves will snap under Derby Day stress

3. First Samurai: here's where I put my neck on the line- I think he's like a deflating balloon. His best days appear to be behind him- losing to Keyed Entry and Corinthian and the like. He's got class but not enough left for this Derby, IMHO. (now watch him prove me wrong in the Bluegrass )

4. Barbaro: Looked good winning all his races, not wild about the small margins or his pace-stalking tactics for this Derby. We'll see.

5. Bob and John: I couldn't help but notice how tired he looked in the last furtlongs of the Wood. That didn't inspire confidance in me. But he is consistant.

6. Lawyer Ron: speaking of consistancy, I don't know what kind of quality he's beating at Oaklawn and his times aren't really impressing me, but consistancy can do a lot for a horse.

7. A.P. warrior: one word- erratic. I wouldn't count on him to do anything for sure. Chances seem good that he'll flop, as that's, ahem, what he normally does. But sometimes he shines. Go figure that one.

8. Sweetnorthernsaint: I was impressed by his workouts long before Hawthorne. But he hasn't won a whole lot, and Hawthorne wasn't exactly an amazing field. I know about War Emblem... but I also know about Greeley's Galaxy, who looked sooo impressive last year, only to go *pfft*

9. Private Vow: I actually don't remember his early victories. I know he's sucked as of late. Will he continue to suck? Tune in Saturday! If he doesn't impress then, I don't expect him to ever do so again.

10. With a City: right now, I put as much faith in him winning the Derby as I put into Colonial Colony winning the BCClassic after his Stephen Foster victory (zero). Some races are flukes. And if With a City wins the Arkansas Derby, I will be the first to laugh my ass off I can be wrong...

11. Sharp Humor: he'll make the Derby interesting, for sure. Who wants to bet he'll set a kickass pace? I do! He's gutsy, too, which is nice to watch. But with all these pace stalkers (and pace makers) I think he'll fold. Not that I want him to.

12. Bluegrass Cat: he got beat by Deputy Glitters. Yikes. He'll have to do something big in the Bluegrass to change my mind after that one...

13. Keyed Entry: looked like a pure sprinter to me in the Wood. With Sharp Humor to fight with in the early going, he should get his butt kicked in the Derby.

14. Point Determined: this horse hasn't exactly shown that he likes to win. At least he's shown he's consistant... at finishing second. Maybe if everyone else exhausts themselves he'll finally show what he's got in the Derby.

15. Cause to Believe: he burns up the track in California, and then he flops big time at Hawthorne against an overall blah field. What the hell? At least he's a come-from-behinder, a unique breed for this starting limeup.

16. Deputy Glitters: I think I made my point with him when I commented on #12, Bluegrass Cat. His Wood run was baaaaad.

17. Jazil: looked awesome in the Wood and suddenly gained a massive bandwagon off of that second place. Off of that one run, he probably deserves it. Question is, can it be duplicated, or is he a big tease?

18. Seaside Retreat: ran second to With a City. I have no interest in him.

19. Like Now: looks like a sprinter to me. I think Sharp Humor could kick his rear, never mind anybody else.

20. Superfly: who? I need a refresher for this one.

21. Mister Triester: see above.

22. Flashy Bull: pretty horse, but hasn't pvoven that he can win anything but a maiden. I don't care if Giacomo did it last year, I'm not putting money on him, dude.

23: Sunriver: just because you're a full sibling to Ashado doesn't mean you have her talent. I don't think he's done enough to deserve his popularity.

24: Sacred Light: see Superfly's comment.

25: Red Raymond: see above

26: Malameez: no.

27: High Cotton: not very fast, overall I'd say: no.

28-34: eh.

35/36: Strong Contender and Showing Up: winning allowance races doesn't mean nothin' until you get some graded earnings, boys. God do something, FAST!

Well, that's my incredibly long take on things. In the end, somebody has to win. I have no idea who that will be. Maybe one of the guys I've dismissed will sprout wings on the first Saturday in May... or even tomorrow. Let's Watch.

[austique]

My thing with this field this year is that everybody wants to be on or near the lead and many of them aren't that experienced. Speed duel anyone? I think of the top contenders Lawyer Ron has shown that he may be able to change running styles and lay further back, but I would look for the late-charging Steppenwolfer to pick up the pieces and get a piece of it if a speed duel develops and enough of the pretenders to drop out so he can get in the field. I'm wondering how Superfly is still even in consideration. Has he even started this year?

Private Vow is a weird one as well. He showed a lot of promise last year despite crappy luck, but his debut this year was uninspiring and Asmussen isn't acting like he's all that confident in the colt getting snippy with reporters who ask about him.

I think this Derby is going to fall into somebody's lap. Whoever survives the run into the first turn wins

Best Derby bet, odds on Zito entering something (no doubt Superfly ) regardless of having nothing in his barn that looks close to competitive.

The Bluegrass I think is a walkover for Bluegrass Cat and First Samurai with Strong Contender having a decent shot if he can overcome his lack of seasoning. That being said, I don't see any of them having a legitimate shot at the roses.

[louis finochio]

I have been following Strong Contender and I expect a super race from SC this weekend.

One month from now we will all know who is king of the jungle. Some TB will move into the lime light and some will move in reverse and disappear.

I hope Stevie Wonderboy comes back from his injury, and makes his presence felt.

[Pete]

Hi Folks,

A lot will depend on the surface at Churchill. I’ll assume that it won’t be the asphalt strip that Monarchos skipped home on in 2001.

I just finished reviewing all the contenders and their races. Barring any surprises in the Bluegrass or Arkansas Derby (and we hope no injuries), I believe the Derby picture is becoming clear. For anyone interested the PPs (not updated through this past week) are available on the DRF site.

Austique, you're right that there's an abundance of speed in the race. The main contenders have mainly run regionally and not met often if at all and the most accomplished have done it on or near the lead. That creates some opportunities for horses like Giacomo in last years running that can rate.

I find myself in near total agreement with Steve Haskin’s comments: http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32974

I doubt that Brother Derek will ever have it more his way more than he had in the Santa Anita Derby where Sacred Light nearly fell out of the gate, Wildfang never belonged and neither A.P. Warrior nor Point Determined never mounted a challenge. The time wasn’t special for lone speed on a very fast and speed favoring track. He’s been very good to date but has always had it his own way and he hasn’t shown the speed to take it on the lead in the Derby. I believe Haskin is overly impressed with what he thinks he sees in this horse.

Sweetsouthernsaint was impressive in the Gotham where he had a wide trip and was slow to react in the stretch but still closed late and looked as if he would have won had the race been 9f. I felt that he might be a horse to watch if he improved off that effort.

In the Illinois Derby he didn’t improve, he morphed and his explosive response when asked made for the best effort of any Derby contender to this point in their careers. The Hawthorne strip played several seconds slower than Santa Anita yet Sweetnorthernsaint ran his final 3f in: 36.72 and his last furlong in :12.08, both faster than Brother Derek in :36.79 and :12.61 respectively. His final time of 1:49.4 for 9f was hardly distinguishable from the 8.5f times on the day and two sprint stakes went in 1:11+ on the same card. Haskin correctly calls this a dead track.

Sweetnorthernsaint reminds of Rock Hard Ten in action but is more fluent and he has more speed. He was relaxed and well within himself throughout the ILL Derby with the margin of victory simply being fact following form and he seemed to have plenty left in the tank. I’d like him to have some more seasoning and he’s not totally professional yet. He rated in the Gotham and pressed in the Illinois Derby, tactics that should give him the versatility to win the Derby. He has a beautifully balanced pedigree and is bred to go 10 furlongs or even longer. His female family is fast emerging as an important one with three daughters of his 2nd dam, SW ICE FANTASY, (dam of FIGHTING FANTASY (G3)), having produced EYE OF THE TIGER (G2), SNOW RIDGE (G1) and now SWEETNORTHERNSAINT (G2) respectively in a span of only 5 years.

Strawberry, you’re right about Greeley’s Galaxy last year but the preps aren’t created equal. War Emblem and Ten Most Wanted both used the ILL Derby win as a springboard. Every year the trick is to identify the key prep.

Regards,

Pete

[StrawberryFelidos]

Here's the REVISED graded earnings list, and a few new thoughts

1. Discreet Cat: when in the hell are we going to find out if this guy's going or not????

2. Brother Derek

3. Lawyer Ron: how can he be so slow and yet so darned successful? One of the great mysteries of the known world...

4. Barbaro

5. Bob and John

6. Sinister Minister: hehheheeeee... now that's zippy. He's extremely green, though, and that doesn't translate wonderfully in a 20 horse field. He'll make things very interesting with his anti-rate mentality.

7. Private Vow: is he going or isn't he??? Nice try in the Ark Derby, but definately no cigar. Not as good as he used to be, IMHO

8. A.P. Warrior

9. Sweetnorthernsaint

10. With a City: he's still going?? You gotta be kidding me....

11. Sharp Humor: isn't he just gonna love Sinister Minsiter...

12. Bluegrass Cat: not the same horse that he used to be

13. Steppenwolfer: I've never respected this guy because I've never seen him win. Doesn't seem to be his "thing", and I don't put much stock in him changing his mind on Derby Day. But with his closing style, who knows...

14. Keyed Entry

15. Point Determined

16. Cause to Believe: suddenly looks more impressive thanks to the Minister of Unrateable Chaos and his Blue Grass Freak Show.

17. Deputy Glitters: his whupping of Bluegrass Cat seems even less impressive than it did before, and his Wood was sucky. But I do rate him above With a City!!

18. Storm Treasure: surprising in the Blue Grass, before that all of his past performances looked blah to me. Maybe he's turning it around, or maybe he was being a fluke.

19. Jazil

20. Seaside Retreat: definately doesn't look very impressive after losing to With a City and finishing off the board at Keeneland. He'll be bumped by the Coolmore Lexington guys, though, so no need to ponder it

[austique]

I'm betting right now that Discreet Cat skips the Derby and goes to the Preakness (baby step, Goldolphin, baby steps).

Bluegrass Cat should skip, but won't. With a City...ditto.

Private Vow may not be race tough and maybe should wait for the Preakness. Cause to Believe is a fence sitter...jockey said he just didn't have it in the Illinois.

You're going to have the inevitable Lexington, Derby Trial entries and you better believe Zito is starting something (perhaps Sam's mystery horse).

Still sticking with the always game Steppenwolfer (or Giacomo Part Deux) although I think if A.P. Warrior will rate in behind horses he could be tough and I think the same of Lawyer Ron.

[Sam]

Sorry, didn't see this thread until just now ... would have put those last two posts here.

[Sam]

You're going to have the inevitable Lexington, Derby Trial entries and you better believe Zito is starting something (perhaps Sam's mystery horse).

I don't think anything will come out of the Derby Trial. Zito MIGHT get Hemingway's Key out of the Lexington. My "mystery" horse isn't a Zito (don't know why I thought he was) ... Dallas Stewart has him and I'll give you a hint. He was a promising 2yo last year that had problems and has a stellar pedigree.

He ran second last week in a nice 8.5f ALW (I think) at Keeneland where he JUST barely got beat a head, but I believe it was only his 2nd start of the year and he definitely needed the race. It's a case of waiting to see if he goes into the Lexington and runs well enough (and gets enough in earnings) to earn a spot.

Truthfully, the ped and where he is right now development wise probably says "Sit out Derby dance. Try the Belmont if it comes up light and aim for the Travers"

[StrawberryFelidos]

Sorry, didn't see this thread until just now ... would have put those last two posts here.

Is okay

Does anybody know the purse breakdown of the Lexington? That thing always brings out some horses that don't really belong but somehow manage to hog spots- Sort it Out last year (what in God's name was he doing there?) and Coin Silver, who never did anything before or since (much to my dissapointment- he was a cocky fella and fun to watch that once). Or was it Going Wild who got in from last year and Sort it Out the year before? My brain, it's all a mush...bad contenders all mixing into one, no separation...
Ah, well- it still takes all types to fill a 20 horse field. Even With a City will be entertaining to watch- bomb. Or spring a huge upset to put Giacomo to shame.

[Sam]

Does anybody know the purse breakdown of the Lexington?

It's a $325k race. I THINK it breaks down: $201,500 for 1st, $65,000 for 2nd, $32,500 for 3rd, $16,250 for 4th and $9,750 for 5th.

I would only expect the first and second horse to get enough in earnings to bump someone from the top 20.

[StrawberryFelidos]

If your purse breakdown is correct, it means that a longshot would have to take 1st, essentially, to guarantee a shot. If some 50-1 longshot who's never won a race comes barreling down the stretch to nab second, $60k graded isn't gonna be enough to bump anyone Yay. Now the first prize, whoever wins that gets a free ride, so we'll just have to hope that the flukes don't fly...

[Sam]

$60k graded isn't gonna be enough to bump anyone

I was thinking more of the horses down in the $90k range who could bump the last horse off with a 2nd.

[Sam]

With Discreet Cat out, Like Now is the low man on the pole and only needs 6 grand to push over Seaside Retreat.

21 -- Like Now (Jules) -- 120,000 -- Coolmore Lexington Stakes

These three NEED a win to be in:

39 -- Bushmill's Best (Concerto) -- 0 -- Coolmore Lexington Stakes?
40 -- Showing Up (Strategic Mission) -- 0 -- Coolmore Lexington Stakes
41 -- Hemingway's Key (Notebook) -- 0 -- Coolmore Lexington Stakes

Third or better gets these in (and bumps Like Now, provided he doesn't finish in the top 5)

22 -- Superfly (Fusaichi Pegasus) -- 112,700 -- TBA
23 -- Mister Triester (Old Trieste) -- 112,000 -- Derby Trial? Kentucky Derby?
24 -- Flashy Bull (Holy Bull) -- 109,000 -- Kentucky Derby? Coolmore Lexington?
25 -- Sunriver (Saint Ballado) -- 100,000 -- Coomore Lexington Stakes? Kentucky Derby?
26 -- Sacred Light (Holy Bull) -- 97,300 -- TBA
27 -- Red Raymond (Deputy Commander) -- 93,120 -- TBA

If I'm Like Now's connections and REALLY want a Derby berth with a chance to win, I'm going to instruct the jock NOT to kill the horse. A win is nice, but if he can comfortably in the top 5, don't push the horse. As it is, I think only 5 of them are even going to be in the Lex.

[Shammy Davis]

Pete posted:

A lot will depend on the surface at Churchill. I’ll assume that it won’t be the asphalt strip that Monarchos skipped home on in 2001.

Pete, I'm interested to know what you know about CD's track preparation for 132, that no one else is reporting?

It has long been known that for the KD CD has been tightening its surface for a speed bias in recent years. What makes you think, it will be different this year? Best wishes

[hpkingjr]

If memory serves me when they redid Churchill the last time they went from a 60/40 sand to clay ratio to a 60/40 clay to sand ratio thus making for a faster but harder surface. Does anyone else have a memory of this? I will check at Churchill to follow up and make sure my post is correct.