Hi all,
Any final thoughts on Derby 2006? Final predictions?
Who will you bet an how?
What impact might off track have? Post position?
What happens to the sires if their sons do well? Any predictions on stud fees?
Bold prediction: Sweetnorthernsaint will win the Triple Crown if he wins the Derby. I will bet with SNSaint on top. Sweetsouthernsaint stands in KY for $25,000 if SNSaint wins the Derby.
Keyed Entry is the key to this race (no speed inside him) vs. Sinister Minister (who wants a clear lead). Will Pletcher speed duel?
Jazil or Steppenwolfer can only contend if they're moving at 5/8th pole but need to position earlier. Tough road for both.
Showing Up trips behind Sinister Minister for better or worse.
Sharp Humor must out leave Bob And John and Barbaro to press pace. May be used up or hung wide. If he gets out well, A.P. Warrior, Brother Derek get better trips and Bob And John sits well. If Barbaro leaves.....
Sweetnorthernsaint, Showing Up, Brother Derek, Point Determined, Jazil
Good luck and safe home to all. Enjoy!
Regards,
Pete
(gads this took forever to write).
Final Thoughts on Derby 2006
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster
Final Thoughts on Derby 2006
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
General thoughts: I think this particular crop has a chance to be quite good, although none of them will be exceptional as they continually beat up on each other. I do think they will post a sub 45 half and I think the Arkansas contingent will prove fast prep times mean nothing (ala California last year). Pace up front is going to cook half the field. Barbaro gets nowhere after getting shuffled back and finding out that dirt stings, but he still commands $40,000 freshman stud fee.
Betting: Completely sore subject for me as Hawaii has no legalized gambling although they still allow cockfighting. The fact that Lost was filming down the road from my house last week is the only redeeming quality of this living, breathing Elvis movie.
The off-track essentially kills the chances of Deputy Glitters (but I don't feel he has much of a chance anyways) and will probably hinder Flashy Bull as well. I don't see post positions being a big issue for anyone other than Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron although I think their connections took the best options they had given the available posts.
I see Sweetsouthernsaint moving to KY also if Sweetnorthernsaint does well, but I would think his fee would be lower than $25K (maybe $15,000 to $17,500) and we all know Steppenwolfer will have to fall down for Sweetnorthernsaint to have a chance
I don't think you'll see much else move. Most of the sires are older and entrenched at their current fees. Aptitude might be able to hold on to his current fee if Steppenwolfer wins and I guess there is a very outside chance Kentucky could run at Benchmark if Brother Derek wins.
My top five are Steppenwolfer (dance with the one who brung ya), Lawyer Ron, A.P. Warrior, Bob and John, Jazil
Outside horse: Seaside Retreat (I don't really think he has a shot, but I dig King Cugat)
Betting: Completely sore subject for me as Hawaii has no legalized gambling although they still allow cockfighting. The fact that Lost was filming down the road from my house last week is the only redeeming quality of this living, breathing Elvis movie.
The off-track essentially kills the chances of Deputy Glitters (but I don't feel he has much of a chance anyways) and will probably hinder Flashy Bull as well. I don't see post positions being a big issue for anyone other than Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron although I think their connections took the best options they had given the available posts.
I see Sweetsouthernsaint moving to KY also if Sweetnorthernsaint does well, but I would think his fee would be lower than $25K (maybe $15,000 to $17,500) and we all know Steppenwolfer will have to fall down for Sweetnorthernsaint to have a chance
I don't think you'll see much else move. Most of the sires are older and entrenched at their current fees. Aptitude might be able to hold on to his current fee if Steppenwolfer wins and I guess there is a very outside chance Kentucky could run at Benchmark if Brother Derek wins.
My top five are Steppenwolfer (dance with the one who brung ya), Lawyer Ron, A.P. Warrior, Bob and John, Jazil
Outside horse: Seaside Retreat (I don't really think he has a shot, but I dig King Cugat)
I don't have low self-esteem. I have low esteem for everyone else. ~ Daria
Superfecta
Bet Number 1: Win Barbaro, Place Sweetnorthernsaint, Box AP Warrior, Keyed Entry and Point Determined for Show and 4th.
Bet Number 2 Reverse Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint plus the box. Cost of the bets $12.00
Bet Number 2 Reverse Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint plus the box. Cost of the bets $12.00
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LaTroienne
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elviswastheking
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Nobody likes him, but I do.......................Steppenwolfer.
(Ooops, sorry Austique, looks like you are dancing with him also)
I will exacta box him with Barbaro, Lawyer Ron, and the Saint.
For grins I will also do a $5 exacta box with the Wolf and Private Vow. If that comes in then the Juleps are on me!
(Ooops, sorry Austique, looks like you are dancing with him also)
I will exacta box him with Barbaro, Lawyer Ron, and the Saint.
For grins I will also do a $5 exacta box with the Wolf and Private Vow. If that comes in then the Juleps are on me!
Hi Folks,
You guys brought a smile to my face. On other boards this post would have caused a riot.
La Troienne, I had a great laugh re: Sinister Minister, I know your meaning but 'under the radar' connotes (to me) 'sneaking up' and Minister is anything buy sneaky.
Does Benchmark go to KY if Derek wins?
Regards,
Pete
You guys brought a smile to my face. On other boards this post would have caused a riot.
La Troienne, I had a great laugh re: Sinister Minister, I know your meaning but 'under the radar' connotes (to me) 'sneaking up' and Minister is anything buy sneaky.
Does Benchmark go to KY if Derek wins?
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
-
LaTroienne
- Restricted Stakes Winner
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- Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2006 9:57 pm
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elviswastheking
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- Location: Texas
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Pan Zareta
- Breeder's Cup Winner
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Pete wrote:You guys brought a smile to my face. On other boards this post would have caused a riot.
It could fer shur be hard on someone w/ a hurt hand...
Boxing Bob n' John, Bro. Derek & Lawyer Ron 'cause I never bet on a horse I want to win.
Hyperactive friend in FL has 2x SSS in the oven. If SNS wins, brace for 8.0 seismic event centered ~8mi. outside Ocala. CW there says SSS goes to KY regardless. Fee to be determined. Maybe double current & add $5K per ea. place better than 5th for SNS.....
Does Benchmark go to KY if Derek wins?
Interesting question. If he had another name between his own and RAN he'd undoubtedly be there already. I think he's better off staying put w/ an increased fee, but that's jmo.
Now, I'm not much of a handicapper....especially in advance, I have better luck using the who-looks-sharp-in-the-post-parade angle. But were I forced at gunpoint to play a four-horse exacta box today (or harrassed my boss to give one out, which is pretty much the same thing 
Never should have given him Giacomo last year, now he'll never let me rest), I'd play SNS, Barbaro, Lawyer Ron & Jazil. If the rain doesn't come, I might replace Jazil with Storm Treasure. I love Brother Derek, but I'm afraid he'll try chasing the pace in here...the others have shown a bit more tractability, at least in the races I've watched.
'Course, I've got big girly horse-crushes on half this year's field, so I'm not very confident.....and I might change my mind completely by post time. Hardly matters as I'll be nowhere near a betting window.
Never should have given him Giacomo last year, now he'll never let me rest), I'd play SNS, Barbaro, Lawyer Ron & Jazil. If the rain doesn't come, I might replace Jazil with Storm Treasure. I love Brother Derek, but I'm afraid he'll try chasing the pace in here...the others have shown a bit more tractability, at least in the races I've watched.
'Course, I've got big girly horse-crushes on half this year's field, so I'm not very confident.....and I might change my mind completely by post time. Hardly matters as I'll be nowhere near a betting window.
I think it's Baffert's race to lose.
Watch Sinister Minister. He's going to dictate everyone else.
If the rains keep coming and the track gets boggy, you just don't close on Churchill (remember Smarty Jones).
Since SM is more or less uncontrollable, if he skips away to a big lead and no one makes a strong move going into the final turn, even if he gets drunken sailor leg weary he may still be able to hold them off on a boggy track because it'll take a power closer (ala Broad Brush/Strike The Gold) to catch him. Cue Point Determined.
If the rains DON'T come and the track manages to dry out, they'll catch SM fairly early.
Brother Derek's people are in a no win situation. He's so far out, they're going to have to burn him early to get position and with his running style, he's going to grab SM's tail and try to have SM drag him around the track. If Bro D. tries to pressure SM, they'll both cook early. If he tries to hold position a length or two back, he doesn't have a high enough 'cruising speed' to go with SM for long and still have a kick at the end. Cue Bob And John who will be sitting just off Brother Derek and will pick up the pieces if Bro D. and SM lock horns early.
I'm still going with Point Determined.
... final thought... TO HELL WITH THE DERBY!
I'm getting 8 and 20 ML respectively on Flanders Fields and Polarity in the 3rd. Still trying to figure out why Polarity has to carry more weight than FF though... damnit.
Watch Sinister Minister. He's going to dictate everyone else.
If the rains keep coming and the track gets boggy, you just don't close on Churchill (remember Smarty Jones).
Since SM is more or less uncontrollable, if he skips away to a big lead and no one makes a strong move going into the final turn, even if he gets drunken sailor leg weary he may still be able to hold them off on a boggy track because it'll take a power closer (ala Broad Brush/Strike The Gold) to catch him. Cue Point Determined.
If the rains DON'T come and the track manages to dry out, they'll catch SM fairly early.
Brother Derek's people are in a no win situation. He's so far out, they're going to have to burn him early to get position and with his running style, he's going to grab SM's tail and try to have SM drag him around the track. If Bro D. tries to pressure SM, they'll both cook early. If he tries to hold position a length or two back, he doesn't have a high enough 'cruising speed' to go with SM for long and still have a kick at the end. Cue Bob And John who will be sitting just off Brother Derek and will pick up the pieces if Bro D. and SM lock horns early.
I'm still going with Point Determined.
... final thought... TO HELL WITH THE DERBY!
I'm getting 8 and 20 ML respectively on Flanders Fields and Polarity in the 3rd. Still trying to figure out why Polarity has to carry more weight than FF though... damnit.-
bcassidy
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No surprise here, this race really sets up to be a great Jockey's race and as usual (in this race in particular) the horse with the best trip will win. There appears to be a very contested pace which should set up nicely for the typical Derby closer, therefore, I love SNS to win or at least finish second. I plan to key SNS to win in the Superfecta and I will use Point Determined and Bob and John in the place position and then use the 4,6,8,12,14,17,18 in the 3rd and 4th positions. It will cost $84 for a $1 bet.
I will then key SNS in the place position and use the same horses in 1st, third and fourth.
This is a wide open field with lots of great handicapping angles.
May the best horse win and good luck to all who venture a wager. The prices should be huge!
I will then key SNS in the place position and use the same horses in 1st, third and fourth.
This is a wide open field with lots of great handicapping angles.
May the best horse win and good luck to all who venture a wager. The prices should be huge!
best regards Brendan