Kentucky Derby Contenders Listed By Ventura GeoScore

[llbean]

Hi all,

My hands/patience ran out before I could go through all the Derby Starters but I still managed to go over the VGSs in the ones with VGS Pedigrees that really stand out.

Note: If a cross has only produced 1 GSW it will not be mentioned in this post since it could’ve just been chance (note the Derby Starters are listed in order of how impressive I think there Ventura GeoScores are)…

1. Brother Derek

Amazingly, Brother Derek’s Sire/Damsire and Sire/2nd Damsire Combinations get extremely high Ventura GeoScores based on Multiple Graded Stakes (and sometimes Multiple G1 Stakes) Winners:

Benchmark / Siyah Kalem (G1W): 588.50
Benchmark / Siyah Kalem (GSW): 961.75

Benchmark / Relaunch (G1W): 84.07
Benchmark / Relaunch (GSW): 96.18

I dare anyone here to either:

A. Find me a horse with Two VGSs so High so up Close.

Or.

B. Set up a theoretical mating where the theoretical foal would have two VGSs so high so up close.

Perhaps someone will find one or two but I sure haven’t yet.

And very interestingly, George William Smith recently gave Brother Derek more Genetic Points than he gave AP Warrior in spite of Brother Derek’s Sire standing for $10,000 and AP Warrior’s sire standing for $300,000! (George Smith also takes into account compatability as well as quality, his primary determinant, and this explains it as far as I can tell.)

Anyway, Brother Derek is clearly a very nice horse and even if he loses the Derby due to the Pace Scenario and/or not getting enough hard races in I still think a tough race in the Derby would set him up very well for the Preakness and Belmont.

2. Sharp Humor

The fascinating thing about Sharp Humor’s pedigree is that his dam shares two close up and non-widespread elements with the dam of Commentator; a G1 Winning, Horse of the Year Defeating, and Track Record Setting son of Distorted Humor (that name sounds familiar).

As a result of this highly unusual and highly unlikely to be random fact; Sharp Humor is:

1x3 to Distorted Humor and Woodman; who get a G1W Based VGS of 67.91 (or 6,691% better than average) and a GSW Based VGS of 64.39; and is also 1x3 to Distorted Humor and Believe It, who get a G1W VGS of 29.43 and a GSW VGS of 42.75.

The significance of these scores is that the GSW Based VGSs are based on Multiple examples of the cross and thus it is highly unlikely that such extreme results were the result of chance (ask away if you want to know why).

3. Sinister Minister

Sinister Minister is 1x3 to Old Trieste and Deputy Minister, who also combined in another of Old Trieste’s few GSW (remember Minister Eric?).

This cross gets a G1W Based VGS of 65.39 and a Graded/Group Stakes Based VGS of 51.99.

Also, Sinister Minister has a 2x3 cross of The Prime Minister (his obscure damsire) and Seattle Slew (the paternal grandsire of Old Trieste) and this cross is also found in the only other GSW with The Prime Minister: Kentucky Kaper.

This giveth The Prime Minister/Seattle Slew a GSW Based VGS of 13.69 and GSW Based VGS of 19.98.

Also, it might be a bit too far back but Sinister Minister has the AP Indy/Mr Prospector nick 2x4 and that gets a very good (especially given the VERY large sample size) G1W VGS of 3.76 and a GSW Based VGS of 3.29.

4. Bluegrass Cat

Bluegrass Cat has an interesting pedigree because he has a similar Sire/Damsire high VGS + Sire/2nd Damsire high VGS deal as Brother Derek but with the Cat the figures aren’t as high.

But still, his Storm Cat / AP Indy cross gets a G1 VGS of 7.27 and a GSW VGS of 5.68; and his Storm Cat / Mr Prospector cross gets a G1 VGS of 2.61 (based on a very large sample size of 21 G1Ws) and a Graded Stakes VGS of 2.47 (based on an even larger sample size of 65 GSWs).

Also, his cross of Storm Cat and Numbered Account gets a G1W VGS 2.42 of and GSW VGS of 4.22.

5. Sweetnorthernsaint

Sweetnorthernsaint is 2x3 to Waquiot and Halo, a cross which gets a G1W VGS of 13.69 and a GSW VGS of 19.98.

Also, he’s 3x4 to It’s Freezing and Pia Star; who get a G1W VGS of 39.23 and a GSW VGS of 49.32.

6. AP Warrior

AP Warrior is 1x3 to the AP Indy / Fappiano cross, which gets a GSW VGS of 5.81 and a GSW VGS of 5.14. Also, this is backed up by the more general AP Indy / Mr P Nick, which gets a GSW VGS of 3.76 and a GSW VGS of 3.29.

And here’s the thing which is really impressive to me: on account of AP Warrior’s dam being 3x3 to Mr Prospector, he actually has a highly rare DOUBLE AP Indy/Mr Prospector nick.


7. Lawyer Ron

Lawyer Ron is 2x2 to Danzig and Lord Avie, who get a G1W VGS of 3.64 and a GSW VGS of 3.49. This is backed up by his being 2x3 to Danzig and Lord Gaylord, who get a G1W VGS of 4.69 and a GSW VGS of 3.09.

Also, Lawyer Ron is 1x4 to Langfuhr and Gallant Man, who get a GSW VGS of 12.43.


8. Flashy Bull

Flashy Bull is 2x2 to Mt Livermore and Great Above, who get a G1W VGS of 49.04 and a GSW VGS of 22.00.

-llbean