Complain About 3yo Honors Even Though Its Only June Thread

[austique]

Okay here's the current list:

Confirmed:
Steppenwolfer
Jazil
Sunriver
Bluegrass Cat
Platinum Couple
Hemmingway's Key
Oh So Awesome (who?)
Sacred Light
Deputy Glitters
Bob and John

Possibles:
High Finance
Cause to Believe
Sweetnorthernsaint
Wilentz

With that field, I think the pace is gonna be slow...real slow.

[FOS]

hi austique

I'm finding it very difficult to get even the least bit excited about this year's Belmont.

Respectfully

[austique]

FOS,

Me either. I think somebody could Commendable this race if they wanted to. There's no real pace horse. Looks like about 1 1/2 miles of watching paint dry.

[louis finochio]

The Belmont has always been a stamina turtle race. This years edition will follow suit.

[jagger]

Trying real hard to be optimistic. I think it will be faster than Commendable's uncommendable 2:31+ as a few of the horses at least have on paper the pedigree to do better. Because the early pace will be dreary, several horses may be close coming down the stretch, making for an exciting finish. Sunriver and Bluegrass Cat and maybe Stepenwolfer dueling it out with Sunriver pulling away in the last 1/2 furlong in 2:27.8. Too optimistic?

[jagger]

Looking forward to George and the GSV system and Bill and the conduit mare profile to weigh in with their Belmont analysis. Jazil with a GSV of 75+ leads the way (I think) but has a dismal conduit mare profile. Bluegrass Cat with a GSV of 74 and a modest conduit mare profile. Sunriver with a modest GSV of 70+ but with probably the best conduit mare profile but with less experience than BC or Jazil. Steppenwolfer's DI, CD, GSV and conduit mare profile are remarkable similiar to last year's winner Afleet Alex.

Just trying to stir up interest.

[Sam]

I'm actually looking forward to the Belmont more this year than I have in the past, not so much for the race itself, but for the implications.

With no Derby or Preakness winner in the race, there won't be a dual classic winner so we are going to have a REAL debate through the year of who is going to be the 3yo champion. That hasn't happened since 2000. Too much to hope we get a nice 3yo who decides to whoop up on his elders in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders' Cup Classic this year?

[austique]

I think Bernardini could be that 3yo. I just don't think the Belmont contains that horse. Maybe Sunriver...?

[Sam]

I think Bernardini could be that 3yo. I just don't think the Belmont contains that horse. Maybe Sunriver...?

I think you might be right and I'd be willing to bet that the Classic is actually a short-term goal with the DWC being what Darley REALLY wants to win.

And yeah, I'm still thinking the Belmont is Sunriver's to lose. But then, I thought the Derby was Baffert's race to lose so what the hell do I know.

[Heidilady]

Whether or not another 3yo steps up to obviously grab the mantel, I bet you money lots of folks are gonna be going 'well...Barbaro..."

Seriously though he's got 2 G3s and 2 G1s including the Kentucky Derby and that record's on turf AND dirt. Just wondering if Bernardini gets the graded wins to match (so far he's got a G1--the Preakness--and G3), it won't be on dual surfaces I'd wager plus he won't have the emotional support. Not saying he couldn't do it but seriously, I'm guessing 3G1s will be required to get the edge and even then...people grumble about it being a yearly prize but seriously it's almost like where one horse stopped the other started so I don't think you can tout Bernardini's year qualifications any more than Barbaro's. One's a first halfer and the other's a second halfer. Assuming Bernardini stays sound all through the fall.

Heck First Samurai's got a stronger record this year than Bernardini if you look a graded races. G1 win, G2 win (albeit DQ), G2 place. Beaten by one Derby horse, beat another Derby horse. Not impressed by Bernardini's Withers competition in comparison to First Samurai's. If you really wanna play ball, Brother Derek can even beat that with a G1 and 2 G2 wins including beating the 2yo champ. Sure the classics weren't kind to him but he did a good job in the Derby and he kinda got a weird Preakness experience. Don't count your Bernardini's before they run. They might just end up playing ping pong all year with Barbaro coming away with it. You almost have to have a 3yo win the Classic to justify 3yo honors to a non-Barbaro IMHO. Of course we haven't seen the fall races yet so I could change my mind.

[Sam]

Whether or not another 3yo steps up to obviously grab the mantel, I bet you money lots of folks are gonna be going 'well...Barbaro..."

That's a given and as time goes on, people are going to romanticize him and make him out to be a better horse than he was. They already are.

plus he won't have the emotional support.

We've played that game before. The VOTERS are not overly sentimental idiots (thank God). Owners might be, fans definitely are, but thankfully the voters are not.

You almost have to have a 3yo win the Classic to justify 3yo honors to a non-Barbaro IMHO.

You want to bet?

You don't have to win the classic to get the 3yo title (though it won't hurt). This is the type of year where the Classic is just another race against the elders -- just like the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Woodward. A 3yo can lose that and still get the top honors.

Historically speaking (and I know how that pisses you off, but history is all we have to judge the voters on) no horse has been able to win a 3yo championship without an additional stakes win AFTER a Derby victory. In fact, in years where there was no dual classic winner, only TWO Derby winners have been named 3yo champ -- One of them had to win the Classic to get it.

Only one horse has been able to get a 3yo title without following up his classic win at all (because he was put down in his next race) -- Prairie Bayou.

Since 1971 (35 years), there have been 21 dual classic winners -- 19 of whom have won the 3yo title -- plus 3 triple crown winners. The only two dual classic winners to not win the 3yo title (Riva Ridge and Tabasco Cat) lost to horses who clearly demonstrated superiority over their elders MULTIPLE TIMES in G1 competition (Key To The Mint and Holy Bull).

That leaves 11 years with no dual classic winner.

4 of those years, CH. 3yo went to a horse without a single classic victory.

3 years, the Belmont winner was the CH. 3yo.

2 of those years, the CH. 3yo was the Derby winner.

2 of those years, the CH. 3yo was the Preakness winner.

Knowing the precedent that's already been set ... Barbaro's got next to no chance of getting the 3yo title. His record prior to the Derby win just won't be enough to carry him through the rest of the year, especially if Bernardini or the Belmont winner wins big in a follow up or some other 3yo goes on a tear starting in July.

It's just not that hard to get a 3yo championship in a year like this and you don't have to do a whole lot to get it. You don't even have to win a classic.

It may not be Bernardini (and damnit, that's just a little too damn close to Bandini ... this could get confusing), but I'd be willing to bet big money it won't be Barbaro either.

*************************************************

1975 -- Foolish Pleasure won the Derby (Flamingo and Wood Memorial his only stakes wins prior to the Derby, only win after was the ill-fated match race), Master Derby won the Preakness (preceded by wins in the G1 Blue Grass and G2 Louisiana Derby, no more wins that year) and Avatar won the Belmont (no stakes win after, won Santa Anita Derby prior)

Wajima was the 3yo Champ with victories in the Marlboro, Travers, Monmouth Invitational and Governors Stake (all G1s)

1980 -- Oddball year. The Derby winner DID win 3yo champ that year ... 3yo FILLY champ (Same as 1988, but that was also a dual classic year so not only did the Derby winner get her 3yo title, but so did a dual classic winning colt). That being said, the 1980 Preakness winner was Codex who followed that up with the Hollywood Derby and the 1980 Belmont winner -- and 3yo male champ that year -- was Temperance Hill who followed up with wins in the Super Derby, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Travers.

1982 -- Gato Del Sol won the Derby and nothing else. Aloma's Ruler won the Preakness, but no follow up stakes win (won the Whiters, Bahamas and Jersey Derby -- is that still being run anymore?) and Conquistador Cielo won the Belmont and 3yo Champ with wins in the Dwyer and Jim Dandy -- neither of them G1s (had a win in the Met Mile -- don't see to many horses use the Met Mile as a prep for the Belmont, but I remember a few doing it successfully in the early 80s)

1983 -- Sunny's Halo won the Derby and followed it up with the Super Derby. Deputed Testamony won the Preakness and the Haskell. Caveat won the Belmont and nothing else.

Slew o' Gold was that year's 3yo champ with a win in the Wood, Peter Pan, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Woodward.

1985 -- Spend A Buck was the 3yo champ with a Derby win followed by a Jersey Derby (G3) and Monmouth Handicap (G1) win over Preakness winner (and no follow up) Tank's Prospect and Belmont winner Creme Fraiche who followed that up with the Super Derby, Jerome and American Derby.

1986 -- 3yo Champ Snow Chief off his Preakness win followed by the Jersey Derby over Kentucky Derby winner Ferdinand (and if ever there was a horse who you would have thought would get credit for sentiment it was him and his Derby connections) whose only follow up win was the Malibu and Belmont winner Danzig Connection whose only follow up win was the Pegasus.

1990 -- 3yo Champ was Unbridled whose lone follow up win was the Breeders' Cup Classic. Beat out Preakness winner Summer Squall who followed that up with the Pen Derby and Belmont winner Go And Go (no follow up win)

1992 -- Derby winner Lil E. Tee (no follow up win) and Preakness winner Pine Bluff (no follow up win) lost the 3yo champ title to Belmont winner A.P. Indy who also won the Breeders' Cup Classic

1993 -- Prairie Bayou won the Preakness and broke down/destroyed in the Belmont and still won the 3yo title over Derby winner Sea Hero (who also won the Travers) and Belmont winner Colonial Affair (no follow up win)

1996 -- Grindstone brokedown and retired after his Derby win, Louis Quatorze followed his Preakness win with the Jim Dandy and Editor's Note followed his Belmont win with the Super Derby.

None of them could match Skip Away.

2000 -- Fusaichi Pegasus took the Derby followed by the Jerome (yawn), Red Bullet won the Preakness and nothing after it and Commendable won the Belmont with no follow up. They all lost to Tiznow (who people seem to forget had also won the Super Derby, Affirmed and Goodwood -- against older horses -- before he won the Classic).

[Betsy]

Fans are not giving Bernardini enough credit for his race in the Preakness and his incredible talent, but the writers are. Bernardini is heads and shoulders above the remaining 3 year olds and would have been tough for Barbaro to handle anyway. If he wins a couple of more major races, there's no way he won't get the title; in any case, Barbaro should not be a major consideration unless Bernardini and the others fall completely apart.

[louis finochio]

I saw Brother Derek at Santa Anita on Saturday and his groom Rafael told me BD came out of the TC in good condition with no problems. Rafael felt bad for Barbaro and said he is thankful that BD is ok.

[Heidilady]

Ah sorry Sam but you seem to forget you're denying a horse the 3yo Eclipse when, oh and this is important, no one else has matched him yet, much less surpassed him this year. Should he take it you'll come back with 'hey I didn't say it was impossible, I just said unlikely' but no really, the tone implies an "I'll eat my hat if that happens" whether you said it or not. You have thrown a LOT of negativity and supposed evidence to prove he WON'T likely win with just enough opening so if he should you can go 'well I didn't say it was absolute...'

The numbers are on Barbaro's side unless and until someone else puts up the goods. Have they done it? No, will they? Maybe. And you give all sorts of examples--I can take care of most of them right now. Most of them ran, and lost, in other Triple Crown races. Kinda makes you lose your luster a bit when that happens. Everyone goes goo goo over how under the radar impressive Bernardini was this time around but he won't be running in the Belmont cuz, oh yeah, he's lightly raced and wouldn't want the poor boy to wear his lil self out.

As for your Skip Aways and your Tiznows, are you seriously comparing any horse currently still in training as a 3yo to either of those horses with very little to actually qualify them with that label? They kinda have to earn it first. You sniff at my appreciation of history. I sniff at your appreciation of the numbers--2 grade 1 wins is impressive, 2 more grade 3 wins also impressive---graded wins on turf AND dirt in the same year, even more impressive (and lets not forget the largest Derby win margin since Assault). When anybody seriously threatens that THEN you can give them the mantel. Most of the years you mention other horses triumphing for the championship, most of the time there are differing circumstances Barbaro brings to the table. Seriously Barbaro is like Lil E Tee? Seriously? Grindstone? Both of those, hate to break it to you, were longshots, Grindstone only won by a nose, and the weight of a Triple Crown was most certainly not expected to be borne by either of them. And like I said, you're assuming Bernardini stays sound and that no other 3yos split up the division which I suspect is more likely. If you have 3 or 4 with big wins, the flashy Derby winner whose life was saved in dramatic circumstances and (how you can put this down is beyond me) has in fact achieved much already regarding graded wins, takes it, whatever you might try to do with "history." You wanna talk history? They like it when horses win on both surfaces with authority...they like multiple graded wins..they like wins over quality fields...they like the Derby winner...this field was one of the most competitive Derby groups in 20-30 years according to most. I just knew some people would get steamed about this suggestion and I could've predicted you'd jump on me about this because you seem to forget it's still May. If you had evidence of another horse in October, you'd have a leg to stand on. The truth is, your predictions are only predictions...my observations have already happened. You gotta meet those, not just guess that they'll get beaten. And like I said, if you see any BC Classic winners or future Horse of the Years in this group, THEN you can compare to Skip Away and Tiznow who didn't just make those accomplishments but did so with the obvious destination eventually being the Hall of Fame. Bernardini in the Hall of Fame? Bernardini HOY? Bernardini BC Classic winner? He's gotta earn it first.

[Sam]

You have thrown a LOT of negativity and supposed evidence to prove he WON'T likely win with just enough opening so if he should you can go 'well I didn't say it was absolute...'

Um, no. I proved historical fact that would suggest that voters are not stupid, overly emotional idiots you always want to think they are and didn't say one way or another where *I* personally believe Barbaro won't be CH. 3yo.

But since you asked; I'll bet good hard money that he won't be. Four races in the spring and breaking down in the Preakness won't be enough to carry him to a 3yo title. There's plenty of colts with comparable records to him minus his Derby win (and two colts who'll have records comparable to his in that they'll all have good 3yo form plus a classic win) and all they'll need is one big fall win to snatch it from him.

Most of them ran, and lost, in other Triple Crown races. Kinda makes you lose your luster a bit when that happens.

I'm not exactly sure what you're trying to say here. Better yet, so what? The point is that they had a single Classic win -- 11 of them had Derby wins -- and only one of them was able to win the 3yo title when he was dead. Every one else HAD TO WIN a follow up stakes race. Barbaro will have no follow up win. Bernardini and the Belmont winner most likely will (unless they pull a Strike The Gold). If they don't, there's more than enough 3yos this year who had good form in the spring and can follow up with a nice stake win or two in the fall.

Historically speaking, Barbaro has next to no chance and personally speaking he has NO chance in hell.

As for your Skip Aways and your Tiznows, are you seriously comparing any horse currently still in training as a 3yo to either of those horses with very little to actually qualify them with that label?

No, and if you think I am, you need to brush up on reading comprehension.

2 grade 1 wins is impressive, 2 more grade 3 wins also impressive---graded wins on turf AND dirt in the same year, even more impressive (and lets not forget the largest Derby win margin since Assault).

Never said it wasn't impressive. I'm just saying it won't be enough.

Most of the years you mention other horses triumphing for the championship, most of the time there are differing circumstances Barbaro brings to the table. Seriously Barbaro is like Lil E Tee? Seriously? Grindstone? Both of those, hate to break it to you, were longshots, Grindstone only won by a nose, and the weight of a Triple Crown was most certainly not expected to be borne by either of them.

You're focusing on Derby Winner, I'm talking about CLASSIC WINNER. There were 33 Classic Winners in those 11 years, of which only ONE of them was able to win a 3yo title WITH NO OTHER WIN AFTER IT. That's the point -- the FACT -- you are stubbornly trying to ignore. All Bernardini or the Belmont winner is going to have to do is win ONE graded stakes race in the fall and Barbaro's toast.

the flashy Derby winner whose life was saved in dramatic circumstances

There you go with an emotional appeal again.

They like it when horses win on both surfaces with authority...they like multiple graded wins..they like wins over quality fields...

If all of that were a hard rule they followed, Kitten's Joy would have been Champion 3yo and Turf Horse.

they like the Derby winner

Not unless he backs up the Derby win with something else.

just knew some people would get steamed about this suggestion

Don't be so naive to mistake passionate argument with anger. Just because I can strongly argue against your opinion doesn't mean I'm "steamed." You love to argue from emotion, I know that. Don't project that onto me because I don't.

The truth is, your predictions are only predictions...my observations have already happened. You gotta meet those, not just guess that they'll get beaten.

Mine are not 'predictions', I was merely setting the table -- presenting you with HISTORICAL FACT and showing you what a single classic winner MUST DO to win a 3yo title.

I didn't say Bernardini MUST win the Breeders' Cup Classic to win the 3yo title. NO THREE YEAR OLD DOES. That was YOUR opinion, not mine. I said he only has to follow up his Preakness win with a nice stake in the fall -- doesn't matter what it is. Same for the Belmont winner.

And like I said, if you see any BC Classic winners or future Horse of the Years in this group, THEN you can compare to Skip Away and Tiznow who didn't just make those accomplishments but did so with the obvious destination eventually being the Hall of Fame.

Who's talking Breeders' Cup Classic winner or HOY? Sure as hell isn't me.

Again, I wasn't comparing Skip Away or Tiznow to ANY current 3yo. You're only trying to make it sound like I did. I laid out each years classic winners and showed you why they all got beat by some other horse or how they had to follow up that classic win with some other stake win.

You really need to start reading my posts and stop reading into my posts.