It is a wonder how statistics can be manipulated.
Here is the Juvenile Sire List, through 100, without Untuttable:
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/breedi ... -list.aspx
Here also is the Freshman Juvenile Sire List, through 100, once again without Untuttable.
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/breedi ... -list.aspx
Perhaps the claim is derived from the percentage of SW to starters? Either way, it seems the publication might have objected before they published the ad.
Yes it is a wonder! the sires list are the ones manipulated though!
no matter how you look at it its a multiple........ 14 starters to 11 winners is a good percentage. the 2008 stallion register lists Indian Charlie as #2 on the juvenile sires list with 16 starters and 7 winners. @ $50,000.00 stud fee!.. in all honnesty its not even about starters to winners, things that arent factored in are how many live foals were reported, how many were registered, then where it should really begin is how many officially started training as 2yo's this deducts any that may have not gotten into racing for any reason, sport horses etc..you can read the "GENERAL SIRE LIST" the "JUVENILE SIRE LIST" etc.. all day long there are two totally different sets of data collected to get their man! juvenile list shows number of 2yo's then starters/winners. but general sires list doesnt have a total number of registered horses raced in that year you just get starters/winners. at least you can find the percentage of offspring that are not winning on the 2yo list.
Here is some data taken from the 2008 thoroughbred times stallion directory. its not up to date but still gives facts for time of publication:
Smart Strike ranks #1 on general sire list and #21 on juvenile sire list
$150,000 stud fee
Cherokee Run ranks#14 on general sire list and #01 on juvenile sire list
$40,000 stud fee
Smart Strike
raced @ ages 3-4/8 starts,earning$337,376avg.=$42,172per start.
has 8 crops of racing age with aprox. 48million in prog. earnings
SI 5.08 CSI 3.57 DI 4.6 CD1.12 BSI 1.71
103 2yo's to race 44/11 starters/winners
general list 195/91 starters/winners
leading earner under general sire list:Curlin $5,102,800
Progeny earnings general sires list $13,827,845
keeping Curlin in the equasion this is a avarage earning of $70,912 per starter from the general sires list dividing that by his stud fee of $150,000
you get 0.47cents per dollar/stud fee
Taking Curlin out of the equation being fair to his same father sibblings you get a average earning of $44,974 or 0.30cents per dollar/stud fee
leading earner under juvenile list: Smarty Deb $171,055
Progeny earnings juvenile sire list $711,508
keeping Smarty Deb in the equasion this is a avarage earning of $16,170 (per starter) from the juvenile sires list dividing that by his stud fee of $150,000you get 0.11cents per dollar/stud fee
Taking Smarty Deb out of the equation being fair to his same father sibblings (per starter) you get a average earning of $12,568 or 0.08cents per dollar/stud fee
Cherokee Run
raced @ ages 2-5/28 starts,earning$1,531,818avg.=$54,707per start.
has 9 crops of racing age with aprox. 32million in prog. earnings
SI 1.43 CSI 1.23 DI 3.0 CD .94 BSI .96
87 2yo's to race 37/13 starters/winners
general list 170/86 starters/winners
leading earner under general sire list:War Pass $1,397,400
Progeny earnings general sires list $6,050,919
keeping War Pass in the equasion this is a avarage earning of $35,593 per starter from the general sires list dividing that by his stud fee of $40,000 you get 0.89cents per dollar/stud fee
Taking War Pass out of the equation being fair to his same father sibblings you get a average earning of $27,535 or 0.69cents per dollar/stud fee
leading earner under juvenile list: War Pass $1,397,400
Progeny earnings juvenile sire list $2,003,090
keeping War Pass in the equasion this is a avarage earning of $54,137 (per starter) from the juvenile sires list dividing that by his stud fee of $40,000you get 01.35cents per dollar/stud fee
Taking War Pass out of the equation being fair to his same father sibblings (per starter) you get a average earning of $16,824 or 0..42cents per dollar/stud fee
CR raced 2 more years with 20 more starts, and a higher average earning per start. so as a race horse he was superior.
Cherokee Run has a higher percentage of starters/winners for 2yo's and in general sire list
Cherokee Run from the General Sire List. based on stud fee has about a 90% higher return than Smart Strike factoring in Curlin! taking Curlin out of the equation he has about a 130% higher return.
Cherokee Run from the Juvenile Sire list has aprox 1225% higher return than Smart Strike with War Pass factored in.
and a 525% higher return than Smart Strike taking War Pass out of the equation.
Smart Strikes sales avarages (based on 08 stallion register)are higher but not enough to justify the stud fee, actually his avarage doesnt meet his stud fee!
Stallions are rated by their 1 hit wonders not winners, not numbers of offspring born,#'s registered, racing,yearly stud fees if changes,races lost or not in the money! they provide us with a poor means of providing data so stallions can be looked at as the new pair of Nike's
I wanted to figure Trippi into this I think he would blow both of them out of the water @ $12,500 stud fee.
How can a stallion that is #14 prove to be more of a legitimate choice than the #1?
there is a lot more here than what I have looked at but what we are provided with by the "list's" is diluted.
unless you have total racing numbers from a stallion in my oppinion to breed to race winners/starters is the most logical way!
Breeding to sell is different but this should still be a deciding factor a lot can & does happen from the time of a cover date till the sale, training, and eventually racing. how many have breed to a stallion and seen him hit the highway before yours was old enough to sell?