Professional gambling

[TJ]

Offhand, I don't remember Verbum.

Jose Martin was a genius at the claiming game, often winning on the drop like his Father. Frank LaBo used to work in reverse - he'd win on the move up in class off a bad race, and would NEVER win on the drop - once he dropped a horse, it eventually dropped to the bottom.

I think the only thing better for the professional gambler today is convenience...he can sit in his bathroom with his laptop and make a bet and follow what's going on at a track. But I think it's a lot harder finding value because of so much information out there available to anyone. Plus, there are now Rag and Thorograph sheets that can kill value on any horse that a pro has been waiting for - that stuff wasn't out there 25 years ago.

Remember when some barns would bet early and the price would drift up, instead of late money making the price go down? I always thought that was a slick more - people would see some nag open at 5:2 and avoid it. BIG mistake! LOL!

OK Roke, I see your point in getting value with all the new info, but for many it's info overload and they crash and burn. Information is only as good as the person deciphering it. All these sophisticated techniques draw different conclusion from different people. No different than reading the form, 10 people will look at a 12 horse field and will come up with 10 different horses--it's all in the individual 'cipherin that seperates the winners from losers. TJ

[Rokeby Forever]

TJ - It's still an edge to know how a trainer operates, but trainer patterns can be looked up by a 10 year old.

The Rag and Thorograph sheets don't take one thing into account - they can tell you how fast a horse has run, but they can't tell you when a trainer has been darkening form. They'll show a dropoff in numbers and the user might conclude that the horse is off form, but when trainer patterns can be looked up, anyone can see what a trainer is actually doing by combining the two. A pro is the guy that takes the time to do that, as opposed to some sheet bettor with a $20 bill in his hand that doesn't know any more than what the sheets say. But it's all out there now...anyone can do it. The pro has no edge any more.

[geowarrior]

Going back to BDW's description of his methods (which I greatly enjoyed by the way). I'm curious about a couple of things. Firstly about the tools you use - what tool do you use to see all the will pays for win, show etc., what do you use to evaluate replays, and what other paper tools do you use (pp's etc.), and estimate the general cost of the tools you use in your job as a handicapper. This is not to question your veracity at all, but to get a sense of the type of overhead required to make a living at it as you do. Obviously it's labor intensive but modern computer technology does seem to play a part too.

[Ill-bred]

I believe trip handicapping provides one of the best edges in today's game because it involves time, work, and expertise that the public doesn't put in.

And trip handicapping often goes against the grain of the top speed figure horses, who are typically pounded at the windows.

[bdw0617]

In reading some of these posts I realized how professional gambling has changed since the advent of the internet. Most all of the professional gamblers I knew were based at NY tracks and were at the track daily. They concentrated only on the meet at hand. A handful of them would make the double header from Aqueduct to The Meadowlands, it was early racings simulcasting via the automobile:>) Other than the local professional gamblers were the professional gambling syndicates that would fly into NY (with a briefcase full of money on the red eye) when the pick six carryover was worth the trip. I don't think these guys were as sophisticated as the home team's professional gambler, but they would spread so much on the ticket they could afford a flyer or two. They usually went back with the money too:>) Getting back to the home team, they were experts in the body language and appearance of the horse and took particular note of their condition in the paddock and on the track. They would note every little detail of change from it's previous race or races, for example today the horse is dull/lifeless in the paddock, the horse is breaking out, acting nervous, hard to saddle, a change of equipment not noted on the program (eg. the type of B's he wears today may have a different cup) anything that may alter the horses performance today either by mistake or by design. Most kept their binoculars on that horse from the time they walk into the paddock, then how they look and act while they warm up on the track. At that time, when they were assured all systems are go, they raced to the window to place their wager.
Today with internet wagering a person can bet on a horse without the ability to note these subtle changes for himself. They call themselves gamblers without ever placing foot on a racetrack. It certainly was a lot tougher being a professional gambler in the past. The internet has certainly changed this business of professional gambling, having to rely on other peoples opinions of the horse in the paddock, listening to comments by those present, hoping they will put the camera on the horse you want to see when you want to see it. Listening to TV touts that can influence your opinion. The professional gamblers I knew would be asked by owners and trainers if their horse had a shot to win today. Now can someone tell me how to set up this computer:>) TJ

you are assuming too much.

I never bet a race without watching a post parade. and with the advent of HRTV and TVG I have usually seen 90% of the horses I am betting on before and have a general idea of how they are. not all the time but I alot. I watch enoguh races to know what a stiff horse looks like and what they can and cannot mean.

also while you harped on the disadvantages, you never took the time to mention the advantages, being I am not limited to trying to squeeze lemon juice out of 9-10 races a day when there isn't anything there. I can't stress it enough. if I dont' like exactly what i see, I pass. Durning the early months of the year I am usually looking at about 150 plus from Thursday-Sunday, not betting anywhere near all of them


and with that said, every internet feed, the races I KNOW I'm going to bet on, I can go online at xpressbet and I can see everyting, probably in better uality than the person at the track can. i can see the horse getting saddled, i can see the jockey getting a leg up, I can see it ALL until they hit the gate, even the bad picks by the local paddock people.

again, I would not be able to do what i do witout the internet.

Firstly about the tools you use - what tool do you use to see all the will pays for win, show etc.

xpressbet's toteboard

what do you use to evaluate replays

racereplays.com, it'd be lost without it. 1000x my most valuable tool. there is no way in hell I could do what i do withotu it

what other paper tools do you use (pp's etc.)

honestly none. I won't bet a horse without seeing his workout pattern, so I use the free drf.com workout search, but that' sabout it. and equibase's jockey and trainer standings if I just have neve rheard of a jockey or trainer.

when I bet a race, and I know I like a horse, I like to go back and watch the last 3 races of each horse in the race. it takes a long time yes, but again I might only bet 3 or so races a day, but I could get an associates degree in that race by the time I'm done.

estimate the general cost of the tools you use in your job as a handicapper.

racereplays=25 bucks a month
pedigreequery= 10 bucks a month

I use pedigree query for well lol, pedigrees. comes in handy sometimes.

I would not count my laptop as overhead.

[Ill-bred]

Are you saying you don't use PPs???

I would be LOST without DRF PPs. They are what I grew up using, and I think Beyer Figs, while imperfect, are pretty good if you take the time to factor weight and ground loss in on your own.

I rely heavily on race replays, which I previously got through my winticket account, but now that Churchill bought them out and converted everyone to twinspires.com, the replays and live feeds aren't working on my home and work computers.

[Rokeby Forever]

Hi Ill Bred - I have a question for you.

You're a trip handicapper, and trips are something a lot of people use as a tool.

Let's suppose a horse is dead set on winning a race - everything about it says "Go!". Now, in the race, the horse runs 4 wide on the first turn, then checks twice, and finishes fifth. You, as a trip handicapper, would note the trip.

But, what's to say that the same horse will be on "Go!" the next time? You can argue that he should have finished better in the troubled race than he did, but what if that was the race that the horse was primed for, and that it might regress from the effort? How do you reconcile that into your handicapping? Or, do you? I have no opinion...I'm just wondering how it works for you.

[TJ]

In reading some of these posts I realized how professional gambling has changed since the advent of the internet. Most all of the professional gamblers I knew were based at NY tracks and were at the track daily. They concentrated only on the meet at hand. A handful of them would make the double header from Aqueduct to The Meadowlands, it was early racings simulcasting via the automobile:>) Other than the local professional gamblers were the professional gambling syndicates that would fly into NY (with a briefcase full of money on the red eye) when the pick six carryover was worth the trip. I don't think these guys were as sophisticated as the home team's professional gambler, but they would spread so much on the ticket they could afford a flyer or two. They usually went back with the money too:>) Getting back to the home team, they were experts in the body language and I wasn't appearance of the horse and took particular note of their condition in the paddock and on the track. They would note every little detail of change from it's previous race or races, for example today the horse is dull/lifeless in the paddock, the horse is breaking out, acting nervous, hard to saddle, a change of equipment not noted on the program (eg. the type of B's he wears today may have a different cup) anything that may alter the horses performance today either by mistake or by design. Most kept their binoculars on that horse from the time they walk into the paddock, then how they look and act while they warm up on the track. At that time, when they were assured all systems are go, they raced to the window to place their wager.
Today with internet wagering a person can bet on a horse without the ability to note these subtle changes for himself. They call themselves gamblers without ever placing foot on a racetrack. It certainly was a lot tougher being a professional gambler in the past. The internet has certainly changed this business of professional gambling, having to rely on other peoples opinions of the horse in the paddock, listening to comments by those present, hoping they will put the camera on the horse you want to see when you want to see it. Listening to TV touts that can influence your opinion. The professional gamblers I knew would be asked by owners and trainers if their horse had a shot to win today. Now can someone tell me how to set up this computer:>) TJ

you are assuming too much.

I never bet a race without watching a post parade. and with the advent of HRTV and TVG I have usually seen 90% of the horses I am betting on before and have a general idea of how they are. not all the time but I alot. I watch enoguh races to know what a stiff horse looks like and what they can and cannot mean.

also while you harped on the disadvantages, you never took the time to mention the advantages, being I am not limited to trying to squeeze lemon juice out of 9-10 races a day when there isn't anything there. I can't stress it enough. if I dont' like exactly what i see, I pass. Durning the early months of the year I am usually looking at about 150 plus from Thursday-Sunday, not betting anywhere near all of them


and with that said, every internet feed, the races I KNOW I'm going to bet on, I can go online at xpressbet and I can see everyting, probably in better uality than the person at the track can. i can see the horse getting saddled, i can see the jockey getting a leg up, I can see it ALL until they hit the gate, even the bad picks by the local paddock people.

again, I would not be able to do what i do witout the internet.

Firstly about the tools you use - what tool do you use to see all the will pays for win, show etc.

xpressbet's toteboard

what do you use to evaluate replays

racereplays.com, it'd be lost without it. 1000x my most valuable tool. there is no way in hell I could do what i do withotu it

what other paper tools do you use (pp's etc.)

honestly none. I won't bet a horse without seeing his workout pattern, so I use the free drf.com workout search, but that' sabout it. and equibase's jockey and trainer standings if I just have neve rheard of a jockey or trainer.

when I bet a race, and I know I like a horse, I like to go back and watch the last 3 races of each horse in the race. it takes a long time yes, but again I might only bet 3 or so races a day, but I could get an associates degree in that race by the time I'm done.

estimate the general cost of the tools you use in your job as a handicapper.

racereplays=25 bucks a month
pedigreequery= 10 bucks a month

I use pedigree query for well lol, pedigrees. comes in handy sometimes.

I would not count my laptop as overhead.

BDW,
I wasn't harping on anything, I was just stating simple facts, gamblers not at the track will not be privy to certain things that their own eyes should see. This can aid the decision as to whether to bet or pass. What you do or how you do it with your money is your business. I truly could care less. This is an open forum for all to see, you can spout all you want about whatever you want. Why you took what I said as a personal afront, well I think you paranoia is showing. More power to you beating the races, I hope you take all their money. Just use a little logic and don't let everyone on this board think they can make a living betting horses the way you do. It takes a rare person that can do that. All things being equal and everyone having the same gambling aids to refer too 8 out of 10 people will come up with different selections. If there is a crystal ball out there that will give everone the wisdom to come up with the same winning wager everytime, there would be no value left to gambling--everybody wins, everybody's on easy street like you are. One last thing, I can assume whatever I want whenever I want..........TJ

[bdw0617]

Are you saying you don't use PPs???

I would be LOST without DRF PPs. They are what I grew up using, and I think Beyer Figs, while imperfect, are pretty good if you take the time to factor weight and ground loss in on your own.

I rely heavily on race replays, which I previously got through my winticket account, but now that Churchill bought them out and converted everyone to twinspires.com, the replays and live feeds aren't working on my home and work computers.

Nope. reread my first post in this topic.


dude, if you want to use my racereplays account (unlimited replays) just let me know. it will change your handicapping forever.

Iused PP's up until about 2005. then when i sat down and said you know, I want to make a living doing this and I wrote out a real business plan,k which I still have, I figured I would have to do things differently than everyone else at the track because I want to have different results.

I try to support anything associated with HRTV so I tried ot get a twinspires account,b ut they won't let me have one in my state. still using xpressbet.

roke,

if I had to call my handicapping anything by defination it would be 50% trip 50% class handicapping if that makes sense. I really can't put it in words, just something I've done now.

But, what's to say that the same horse will be on "Go!" the next time? You can argue that he should have finished better in the troubled race than he did, but what if that was the race that the horse was primed for, and that it might regress from the effort? How do you reconcile that into your handicapping? Or, do you? I have no opinion...I'm just wondering how it works for you.

you don't. at least I don't. I stopped tossing and turning at night thinking about situtations like that, sometimes we make it harder than it has to be. Again, I am fine with the fact and I have accecpted it that I am going to handicap some races to a T, and still loose more than I win. reasons like this the one you menitioned is the reaosn you have to know how to manage money and no matter how much you like a horse, have ot play smart and only bet when an opprotunity to make a long term profit is there. for every race i say I won I can name at least 2 I lost. I had a horse at I think Calder that was by A grade 1 turf winner, trying turf for the first time, off a 5 length first time maiden win, going off at 7 to 1 and came in dead last. I remember probably my worst and funniest day of the year was mid summer at churchil downs when I had to loose every damn race by a nose. I dont' know if you know the horse quasicobra or not, but boy I had his ass pegged for an allowence win, coming down the stretch, he has it by about a length, here comes calvin borel on his mount and just starts playing bumper cars, moves my horse out 2 wide, his horse wasn't good enough to hold on and a 16 to 1 shot brings it home. No inquiry. I remember i had a filly earlier that meet at churchill off at 13 to 1, was a grade 3 winner ealrier in the year, had a horrible race the next out, and was being dropped in allowence class off a 4 month layoff.. i assumed she came up injuried, I liked her workout pattern, looked good int he post parade, baby ran her eyeballs out and just got outgamed by a better filly, lost by a length.

shit happens. you have to account for it.

[Ill-bred]

Hi Ill Bred - I have a question for you.

You're a trip handicapper, and trips are something a lot of people use as a tool.

Let's suppose a horse is dead set on winning a race - everything about it says "Go!". Now, in the race, the horse runs 4 wide on the first turn, then checks twice, and finishes fifth. You, as a trip handicapper, would note the trip.

But, what's to say that the same horse will be on "Go!" the next time? You can argue that he should have finished better in the troubled race than he did, but what if that was the race that the horse was primed for, and that it might regress from the effort? How do you reconcile that into your handicapping? Or, do you? I have no opinion...I'm just wondering how it works for you.

Excellent question.

First off, I personally am not great at predicting bounces and jump-ups within a form cycle (absent a trainer change or layoff/workout situation), so I don't try to out-think myself on that front. There are certain patterns I like to see, such as improving speed figures while stepping up in class, or paired tops or second-time anything (second lifetime start, second race vs. winners, second time turf, second or third off a layoff, etc...) If the buried performance is part of an overall positive pattern, so much the better! But this is still a very inexact science for me and I do not make my guestimates of which way a horse is headed my top handicapping theory.

So for me, it comes down to judging a horse's overall ability and then squaring that opinion with the conditions and competition in today's race.

When you identify a buried performance like the one you speak of, it is important to track that horse for more than one race. For example, if that horse comes back in a spot I like, and he is an overlay at 6-to-1 but delivers a flat, disappointing performance, nowhere near the performance in the buried race. Now you have to ask yourself, why? Is he as good as you thought? Is this horse a sucker horse without the competitive drive to win races? Is he clearly an unsound horse who is unlikely to get back to that eye-caching trip? Is he a trouble magnate?

Or was this disappointment actually a bounce off the big performance?

If you think it was a bounce and you believe in the horse's overall pattern, you must keep that horse on your watch list and see what happens next. I want to see a healthy workout or series of workouts and then re-enter in a logical spot. (A long layoff, coupled with a good workout regimen from a strong layoff trainer is also perfectly acceptable.)

Now evaluate him with the field he's facing, keeping in mind he may be able to jump back to the buried race performance or beyond if he is still developing. The odds will be even sweeter one or two races down the line, so that money you lost on the first bet-back can be tripled or quadrupled after the form-darkening bounce. You can afford to give him another chance or two when you like the spot.

In short, the trip handicapper needs to accept that a certain percentage of the time, the gold nuggets he uncovers will actually lead to a disappointing performance in the next race! But follow that horse and you might get rewarded 10-fold.

Hope that answers your question.

[Rokeby Forever]

Hope that answers your question.

You sure did! Thanks!

[Ill-bred]

One thing to add about a trip handicapping watch list... The best kind of horses to be putting on there are horses that won vs. adverse conditions (and not horses that ran well in defeat, although you will certainly notice many of these, and some of them will be value)

[bdw0617]

my point proven, about ify ou wait long enough, and be patient, the "race" will come to you, sitting here watching charles town earlier tonight while having a drink, docs refleciton, at 4 to 1 mornling line, and had a decent shot in the race, goes off at freakin 21 to 1. and wins.

I'd be lying if I said I made a bet, I hadn't handicapped that race. But thoose are the types of values you get if you are just patient and stop trying to squeeze water out of rocks.

[Foggytrip]

I dont believe anyone who says they beat the races. If you selectively play, have a little inside, you can probably supplement an income. There are far too many variables to make a steady living doing it. Notice Beyer, Rag, Brown, all those guys get paid to tell you how to win at the races with their numbers. Dont think they havent left penquin pockets before. (Black pants, pockets turned out with nothing in them) Without inside, and extreme patience, you cannot be in the postive betting horses. PERIOD.

[bdw0617]

i'm glad you feel that way foggy. however I could have guessed that with your undying love of benny the bull