Pedigree Query

Monday so start capping..

it's huge but bay meadows has a 92k carryover and it seems very hitable. might give it a go

Bay meadows-short fields


Santa Anita-bigger fields

Nobody can handicap Santa Anita. The place has become a joke.

wait, you didn't tell me it was a MILLION dollar carry over. nevermind.

I'm in!

i'll post my ticket here tonight

I think how I do at Oaklawn today will decide whether I play a welfare ticket or a ticket that might have a slim chance.

Normal ticket: 3,5 w/ 1 w/ 9,11,12 w/ 4,7 w/ 3,12 w/ 7,9
Welfare ticket: 5 w/ 1 w/ 9,12 w/ 4,7 w/ 3,12 w/ 7,9

Either way I think I'm donating to the pool, it will just matter how much.

good luck to everyone out there making a real run at it.

would love to play a big ticket at SA but its not in my bankroll.

Rokeby Forever wrote:Nobody can handicap Santa Anita. The place has become a joke.

BULLshit! I had that one! One of my old favorites. He always comes out to dance. Hord knocking old horse. I'd breed to him. 7 years old, two track records, wins on three surfaces... or maybe didn't win on dirt??? I don't remember, speed and developing sort of tactical speed. He's correct and tries every time.

Tucumcari wrote:BULLshit! I had that one! One of my old favorites. He always comes out to dance. Hord knocking old horse. I'd breed to him. 7 years old, two track records, wins on three surfaces... or maybe didn't win on dirt??? I don't remember, speed and developing sort of tactical speed. He's correct and tries every time.

You had him because you like him, not because you handicapped him. There are some horses in NY that I always like just because I like the horse, not because I'm picking it out of the paper.

Look at his record. Some people like to gamble on a hard trying horse

You're missing the point - you had that horse because he's a favorite of yours, which is fine. If you had never heard of the horse before, would you have still picked it?

The dilemma with handicapping Santa Anita is that all these artificials are different, so form from one won't necessarily carry over to the other. Let's say the last time a horse sprinted was at Del Mar. Will the form of those Del Mar sprints carry over to Santa Anita? And remember when Santa Anita was super speed favoring when it was scraped? Is the track the same today? Some horses love a certain track - will a horse that ran well at Santa Anita last year run well this year on a completely different surface?

Handicapping is a game of picking the winner. When you have to wonder, "Gee, I don't know if this horse will like this surface or not," that's not handicapping - that's throwing darts at a board. Dirt tracks vary, but it's not even close to the way the artificials vary - ask Lava Man about Del Mar.

Well at least the pick 6 has 3 turf races, one a GII stakes so half the pick 6 can be handicapped without much thought to the artificial surface. The big carryover will bring out the big boys who think nothing of betting a $4,000 ticket, so IMO if you cannot get some singles here, you might as well play some numbers and hope for a jackpot.

DDT

I'M ALIVE!!!!


I had red state rules, gula gold and siemese cat in the first leg

I singled norway house in the 2nd leg

in the third leg, classy attraction and true suggestion


forth leg, coustome and alexandra rose


fifth leg, singling tiz now tiz then

last leg i'm singling royal prana

you gotta be freakin kiddin me. mymomwasafandancer? I thought i had it with true suggestion


now i'm hoping for another longshot so we can get another carryover. well I might be able to get 5 of 6

Probably no 5 of 6, as you threw out Black Mamba.