Inbreeding and the Kentucky Derby

[gmj828]

Hi everyone-I am a novice at this stuff so pardon me if there are mistakes.

I noticed that the last 8 Derby winners were not inbred thru their 1st 4 generations and that only 25% of Derby winners since 1940 were inbred thru their first 2,3, or 4 gens and from what I can tell they were only inbred twice. Big Brown looks to be inbred 4 times in his 1st 4:
3X3 Northern Dancer
4x3 Damascus
4x4 Nearctic
4x4 Natalma

Is this common? Does it make him a super horse or also ran?

Also-other in-bred horses that are considered legit KD contenders are:
Tale of Ekati: 4x3 Northern Dancer
Monba: 4X4 Buckpasser
Cowboy Cal: 4x4 Northern Dancer

Opinions? Corrections? Thoughts?

[zinn21]

I haven't looked closely enough at Derby winner inbreeding to venture an opinion or conclusion but if BB is inbred per your post, the good genetic attributes were passed on very successfully..

BB is the most intriguing horse in the Derby field. His races thus far are very impressive. The question is, can he overcome the lack of seasoning, the alleged bad feet, the speed pressure he will face if he goes to the front or the kickback he has yet to experience if they decide to take him back?

If he is a superhorse not much above will matter.

[jagger]

I'm pretty impressed by all your work, gmj828. The inbreeding thing is pretty interesting. I think with inbreeding you can get a superb product or a complete failure. Inbreeding is done quite intentionally in other types of livestock, plants etc. The big difference is that we cull the failures in everything but VERY expensive horses and humans. This will be a very interesting test as BB is VERY inbred as you have pointed out. I am more concerned about his longevity than his ability. He clearly has the latter.

[gmj828]

Thanks Jagger. I enjoy doing this kind of research. In part that's why I love the Derby-there is a TON of historical info to use for handicapping. It can be an obsession but is sure is fun-especially if you find an angle that gives you an edge. Hopefully it will all come together on 5/3.

[jagger]

Have you got Goldmine yet? It is another fun tool that I am sure you would like that might help you with "that edge".

[gmj828]

Never heard of Goldmine though I have a color coded spreadsheet that's about 20 columns across.

[larrygene]

gmj, Goldmine will help you do your resaerch about 50 times faster!!!! Check it out. There is a free version that will let you check out the inbreedings and much more.

[jagger]

What is at the top of those 20 columns? A trade secret? Keep up the fine work.

[gmj828]

HA! Nope-no trade secret just pretty much all the info everyone else looks at. I just color code it Green-good, Red-bad, Yellow-is neither good nor bad but it's characteristic that has been found in a previous winner. For example GSV's lower that 65 get yellow. Sure it's been done but not very often.

[Patuxet]

In addition to the repeats of Northern Dancer and Damascus an inbreeding pattern in Big Brown's pedigree which particularly interests me begins in the third generation of his second dam, Miasma, wherein there appears to be an attempt to reproduce the pedigree of European classic contender, King Pellinore, 2nd in the Irish Derby and English St. Leger etc. Later in CA I saw him win the Oak Tree Invitational and run 2nd in the Sunset and San Luis Rey.

King Pellinore was by Round Table out of Thong, daughter of the great matriarch Rough Shod and Nantallah. Miasma's damsire is Lear Fan. Lear Fan's damsire Lt. Stevens is a full brother to the aforementioned Thong. Miasma's 2nd dam is SW Friendly Circle by Round Table which yields a 3/8's in blood to King Pellinore.

Miasma is then bred to Nureyev whose dam, Special, is a half sister to King Pellinore. This produces Big Brown's dam, Mien, and makes her inbred 4 x 5 to Rough Shod, aka a Rasmussen Factor (RF).

The 2nd dam of Boundary, the sire of Big Brown, is SW Ponte Vecchio by Round Table. When Boundary is bred to Mien in Big Brown's pedigree it layers Round Table on Thong and again recreates the breeding of King Pellinore.

While at first glance Big Brown appears on the surface to simply be inbred 4 X 5 to Round Table when one looks deeper there seems to be a conscious effort to preserve and intensify the genetic influences which led to the distance-loving King Pellinore. This suggests Big Brown may well have a handy stamina reservoir to draw on in a classic race.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/big+brown

[hpkingjr]

Very nice insights. Thanks

[diomed]

Very excellent analysis of BB's pedigree.
I love the outcrossed inbreeding as well.
Seeing that Northern Dancer and Damascus are basically an outsource for hybrid vigor.
The female line of BB ties in well with the Danzig/Nureyev affinity for the "Shoes" family.
Check out Nearctic's pedigree in relation to that.
Fascinating deep stuff there.

[xfactor fan]

There's a nice interview with the breeder of Big Brown on the Bloodhorse site. Well worth reading as he answers a number of questions about how Big Brown came to be bred.

Almost makes you want to see if Boundary can come out of retirement for one last chance a Mien.

[jagger]

If I owned Mien (Gary Knapp), I would at least double Boundary's stud fee for the next several years for as long as Mien could get pregnant. Most humans work in their retirement - why not horses?

[larrygene]

Good point, jagger!!!