Big Brown is loaded with stamina

[George William Smith]

Loved all the talk by the 'experts' about the possibility that Big Brown could not get the mile and a quarter. Lucky for those on this site that they could read the Conduit numbers of Bill from Wa, that there was no problem based on the females.

Also those who follow closely the GSV scores, know that when a horse has an exceptionally high GSV score and has won a good race at a distance, that the GSV is indicating that distance should not be problem since to get that really high number, a lot of the parents in the pedigree had to find a lot of success on the racetrack at Classic distances and that they sired more of the same.

By definition, Big Brown's GSV of 84.31 and the win at Gulfstream Park on the dirt in 1:35.60 by 12 3/4 lengths in his second start indicated this colt should have Classic distances right up his alley. The Florida Derby win in 1:48.0 with those fractions of 45.80, 1:10, 1:35 and 1:48.0 for a 3yo in a field of 12 was an exclamation point.

Yet those who do not work daily with pedigrees sought to find holes in the colt. It is almost as if they were getting satisfaction from knocking the colt by talking about something they knew very little, pedigrees.

It is actually kind of funny but you have to search a lot harder to find where he gets his speed than where he gets his stamina.

Triple Crown here we come. Lets see, 5 in the Preakness or so and maybe 7 in the Belmont and he canters to both.wins.

Go Big Brown Go

the following is by no means an endorsement of the trainer but an opinion only about the horse.

[geowarrior]

We can't hold a horse's connections against him, that's for sure.

Even though not a numbers person I did have a belated look at Big Brown's pedigree, and the conduit numbers as well as the older GSV figure on the Pedigree Query database did jump out as suggesting that stamina shouldn't be a problem, as did some of the close-up crosses in the pedigree itself. I was surprised that people doubted his potential at a longer distance quite as much as they did.

Everyone is focusing on Boundary, but the way Big Brown's pedigree is set up makes me think you will be hard pushed to find another Boundary offspring that is bred in the exact same way as Big Brown. The point being, that one can't just be thinking about the sire. Which, of course is the reason we have GSV numbers and mare conduit profiles.

[hpkingjr]

Geo:

Someone actually tried before with BB's 2nd dam, Miasma, the horse's name is Circle Bound, made about 16K. I'm guessing Circle Bound was just two years old when they decided to breed for Big Brown. Wonder if they would have tried again after Circle Bound was 3 years with earnings under 20K.

Sometimes what you don't know is not so bad.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/circle+bound

[gmj828]

Thanks George and Bill
The GSV and conduit numbers REALLY helped me to handicap this race. In fact, I would say that for the Derby they should be the two top factors when looking at a horse and I used it to eliminate so many eventual also rans.
I respected Big Brown throughout but was trying to find reasons to throw him out. To me-Col John was an easy toss but not BB and I guess I was listening to the "history tells us..." crap. Before too long all of those silly historical trends will be broken and GSV/Triad will still be there-helping us all to cash winning tickets or at the very least-make an informed decision.
As for me-In the end...I got cold feet, Court Vision just seemed to slow(played a small ATB bet), Pyro was an enigma (another small one) so I went to the window and keyed BB over all. My Big Brown bashing buddy was not amused when I showed him the ticket after the race
Very easy to love this horse and I hope he wins the next two.

Very sad about Eight Belles. What a beautiful looking filly she was.

[geowarrior]

hpkingjr, thanks for the heads up. However, the Damascus/Round Table cross is only one part of Big Brown's equation, the other part, which is missing from your example out of Miasma is the 3x3 Northern Dancer. As a vgs/Goldmine fan I'm sure you're aware that jagger has, for a long time, been pointing out that inbreeding to Northern Dancer through his sons produces a high percentage of graded stakes winners.

In other words, I don't think the Round Table/Damascus aspect is the only important aspect of Big Brown's pedigree, and that's what I meant when I said that you likely wouldn't find a Boundary offspring bred in quite the same way as Big Brown.

[jagger]

This horse is bred by the same breeder as Big Brown, Dr. Gary Knapp at Monticule Farms in Lexington. See my thread regarding same.

[hpkingjr]

When I checked the Goldmine, it showed about 5,620 graded winners with ND in the pedigree. Of that number 413 were inbred to ND on both sire side and dam sire. Of those 413 inbred to ND graded stakes winners, 18 were 3x3 Northern Dancer with Northern Dancer being both the paternal great-grand sire and maternal great-grand sire (3x3). Another way to say it would be to say that 4.4% of ND inbred graded stakes winners were 3x3 ND with ND being the 3rd sire back top and bottom in the horses pedigree.

The Ventura Geo Score (vgs) is .97 for ND inbreeding. In short it does not seem to hurt or help when ND is inbred. I will defer to llbean for his thoughts.

Short answer, not very common.

[jagger]

Not wanting to speak for Mike Ventura, Ilbean, but he has said to me several times that the Ventura Geo Score is somewhat flawed when it comes to scoring horses that are inbred. Hopefully, he will chime in and give a better explanation than I have. But you get the idea - sort of.

[Tesio]

Yes, BB may be loaded with stamina. But from reading the thread in the racing forum, Mr Paulik on ESPN's website infers the stamina is chemically induced!

[bdw0617]

you stole my thunder Tesio! I was going to say he's loaded alright...

[Shammy Davis]

Bill: I think you are right on this one. On another thread I posted my concerns about BB in traffic. I said on that thread that BB was heavy in stamina and to win the KD he had to have an outside post and stay outside until the long stretch run at CD. I'm so proud of myself. The nice thing about BB is that he has speed at the start, can rate, and the stamina to pull it all off in the stretch.

I'll bet Dutrow read my post before he decided on post #20.

You know EIGHT BELLES was loaded with stamina also. The old adage that "speed kills horses" came true again. The fractions at the 4f post were 44 and very little change. Although this filly was not near the lead, a 10f race for any horse in the field at that pace is an extreme physical challenge. That filly had heart and when they heart like that you just can't pull them up.

I think, though I don't know the actual distance traveled by BB in the KD, that BB has already run the BELMONT last SAT.

With his upfront speed, I think he'll make light of the PREAKNESS. I still have my traffic concerns but it looks like all the traffic has been scared off.

Thanks for your thoughts.

[llbean]

The Ventura Geo Score (vgs) is .97 for ND inbreeding. In short it does not seem to hurt or help when ND is inbred. I will defer to llbean for his thoughts.

.97 indicates that on average it helps more than it hurts because the VGS formula can't adjust for crosses like these having had less oppurtunity due to the many breeders who avoid inbreeding.

Also, on the topic of Big Brown, it's worth noting that when inbreeding to ND goes through Danzig and Nureyev, the World-Wide VGS is 1.73.

-llbean

[marble42]

Loved all the talk by the 'experts' about the possibility that Big Brown could not get the mile and a quarter. Lucky for those on this site that they could read the Conduit numbers of Bill from Wa, that there was no problem based on the females.

Also those who follow closely the GSV scores, know that when a horse has an exceptionally high GSV score and has won a good race at a distance, that the GSV is indicating that distance should not be problem since to get that really high number, a lot of the parents in the pedigree had to find a lot of success on the racetrack at Classic distances and that they sired more of the same.

By definition, Big Brown's GSV of 84.31 and the win at Gulfstream Park on the dirt in 1:35.60 by 12 3/4 lengths in his second start indicated this colt should have Classic distances right up his alley. The Florida Derby win in 1:48.0 with those fractions of 45.80, 1:10, 1:35 and 1:48.0 for a 3yo in a field of 12 was an exclamation point.

Yet those who do not work daily with pedigrees sought to find holes in the colt. It is almost as if they were getting satisfaction from knocking the colt by talking about something they knew very little, pedigrees.

It is actually kind of funny but you have to search a lot harder to find where he gets his speed than where he gets his stamina.

Triple Crown here we come. Lets see, 5 in the Preakness or so and maybe 7 in the Belmont and he canters to both.wins.

Go Big Brown Go

I agree with you

Look:

Big Brown

Dosage Profile: 4.7.23.2.0

Dosage Index: 1,67

Center of Distribution: 0,36

G.S.V. : 75,53

Speed: 11

Stamina: 15

Index: 0,83

Come ON BB

Marble


the following is by no means an endorsement of the trainer but an opinion only about the horse.