Pedigree Query

I have discovered an interesting pattern regarding the Derby. If one would have only wagered on horses that had the Ran Sire Line and the Northern Dancer bms that also ran 37 4/5 or less for the final 3 furlongs of a big 5 prep race since 1994: Wood Memorial, Fla Derby, Ark Derby, Santa Anita Derby or Blue grass when it was on a dirt surface the percent of winners comes to 36.4 (4 of 11) and the percent of starters comes to 7.9. The impact value comes to a powerful 4.60. These types are winning the roses 4 1/2 times more often than expected.

Now I realize that the above only represents a small sample of data from 1994-2012 but it seems to have some promise in that these types have won the Derby 4 1/2 times more often than expected.

The ROI is very strong at approx 266%. Return approx. $110 on an investment of $30 because there were only 15 qualifiers since 1994. Even if longshot winner Thunder Gulch were omitted from this study the ROI would still be a strong positive.

The B man should have a lot of fun with this above method since he always feels that nicks are meaningless.

I could be wrong in the above analysis but it seems to have some meaning since the RAN/ND nick above also accounted for 3 seconds and one third from those 15 qualifiers. Summary; from 15 qualifiers in 11 years where at least one qualifier started in the Derby we get 4 winners, 3 second place finishers and 1 third place runner. 8 of the 15 qualifiers hit the board in the Derby. Coincidence? Perhaps, but I think there is more to it than coincidence. Then again I really might only be measuring the final fraction time as the key to success in the Derby and not the RAN/ND nick presence.

Any thoughts on the above method that on the surface seems really good?

Two horses that fit the above angle of having Raise A Native on the sire line and Northern Dancer on the broodline are Palace Malice and Treasury Bill. Treasury Bill goes today in the Rebel.

Nice work!!! Keep us appraised as the Derby preps continue. I'll add Bill Lathrop's thoughts to the equation and I can't miss.

At first glance, I'll bet Bill is pretty high on both Treasury Bill and Palace Malice.

Will take charge is also a RAN/ND. I did not wager on him but after the race he could be considered one of the contenders

One interesting question might be, of all of the registered American TB colts each Derby year, how many are RAN/ND? What percentage? It is, after all, an incredibly popular cross. Mr Prospector over Storm Cat is RAN/ND.

madelyn wrote:One interesting question might be, of all of the registered American TB colts each Derby year, how many are RAN/ND? What percentage? It is, after all, an incredibly popular cross. Mr Prospector over Storm Cat is RAN/ND.

Hi Madelyn,
Although it is a tough number to research without a lot of records in front of you. The odds are, in every new crop's get, there will most likely be more RAN/ND sire/broodmare sire lines then anything else. It has to afford them an edge in coming up in the Derby winner's sire line. Reason being most of the sires are RAN/ND lines since they were around a very long time producing many stakes winners turned sires/broodmares. Here's a quick tally of 145 Derby trail 3YO's for this year. Of that number, those who carried the RAN sire line numbered 56 and ND sire line numbered 52. These two sires lines accounted for 108 of the 3YO's on the Derby Trail out of 145.
Switching to the broodmare sire line and using the same 145 3YO's on the Derby trail.....those that carried the RAN broodmare sire line numbered 46 and those carrying the ND sire line amounted to 45....91 of the total sample of 145 Derby trail contender's. It would seem they would carry an edge in having a winner turn up on sheer numbers alone.
Here's a interesting and inverse anomaly, we know RAN line sires have had a high impact value in winning the Kentucky Derby. Even though I believe much of that, as I said...is a sheer number's advantage alone. The Derby impact value when RAN is on the broodmare sire's line is zero. Stan has informed me that this is incorrect, there have actually been two winners, Barbaro and Mine That Bird, so that is no longer valid. Thank you Stan.
To put names to Stan's well researched theory certainly is also in order...of the RAN sire line Derby contender's who were bred to a ND sire line broodmare we have the following. Carving, Cerro, Elanaawi, George Vancouver, Noble Tune, Palice Malice, Treasury Bill and Will Take Charge....yesterdays Rebel winner. Interesting findings:>). TJ

TJ: Your statement that there has never been a Derby winner that carried the RAN broodmare sire line is incorrect. Both Barbaro and Mine That Bird carried the RAN broodmare sire line. Barbaro's bms was Carson City and Mine That Bird's bms was Smart Strike. Both of these broodmare sires trace along a direct male line to Raise A Native.

I agree with your reference to the multitude of runners that carry the RAN/Northern Dancer nick being a big factor in causing an edge for that pattern. However, as far as a handicapping angle is concerned I was only interested in the value of this nick in selecting Derby winners and the first post I made with regard to this angle illustrates that value although it was from a small sample.

Surely, there are a multitude of RAN/ND types out there that cannot win much money as racehorses and actually are total flops as a runner. Just like million dollar yearlings for the most part are flops on the track.

The RAN/ND pattern is not a recipe for success for a breeder but when utilized as a handicapping factor in Triple Crown races it may turn out to be a valuable tool.

stancaris wrote:TJ: Your statement that there has never been a Derby winner that carried the RAN broodmare sire line is incorrect. Both Barbaro and Mine That Bird carried the RAN broodmare sire line. Barbaro's bms was Carson City and Mine That Bird's bms was Smart Strike. Both of these broodmare sires trace along a direct male line to Raise A Native.

I agree with your reference to the multitude of runners that carry the RAN/Northern Dancer nick being a big factor in causing an edge for that pattern. However, as far as a handicapping angle is concerned I was only interested in the value of this nick in selecting Derby winners and the first post I made with regard to this angle illustrates that value although it was from a small sample.

Surely, there are a multitude of RAN/ND types out there that cannot win much money as racehorses and actually are total flops as a runner. Just like million dollar yearlings for the most part are flops on the track.

The RAN/ND pattern is not a recipe for success for a breeder but when utilized as a handicapping factor in Triple Crown races it may turn out to be a valuable tool.

Hi Stan,
Unfortunately I guess my eyes started to cross after about 130 years of Derby pedigrees:>) I stand corrected and thank you for setting me straight. I am glad to see that was broken, as I do like Orb:>) I will also remove that from my post as I don't want wrong info getting out there.
I agree with your assessment concerning RAN/ND....and I am certainly more aware now with the RAN after you and Dub continue to let me know about it:>) I will be incorporating all of what I know in my experience and what I learn from posters here on PQ. I believe I had the correct horses named that have the RAN/ND cross that are eligible to this years Derby. I will pay particular attention to Elnaawi and Palace Malice now, who are all ready on my radar. Thanks again for the correction and I will edit my errors out of my post. TJ

stancaris wrote:... Just like million dollar yearlings for the most part are flops on the track.

These days, that particular occurrence is not so much a result of any breeding patterns but of the process taken to raise a "sale" horse, including those surgeries to straighten one bone without fixing the offset elsewhere, hothousing and raising them on lone turnout a few hours a day followed by the entire balance in a stall, etc. You end up with a massive gorgeous beast that can't beat a fat man on the way to a free meal and has fragile, brittle bones.

stancaris wrote: The RAN/ND pattern is not a recipe for success for a breeder but when utilized as a handicapping factor in Triple Crown races it may turn out to be a valuable tool.

Thanks so much for the clarification. Is this the only notable pattern in, say, the last 30 years or so?

madelyn wrote:These days, that particular occurrence is not so much a result of any breeding patterns but of the process taken to raise a "sale" horse, including those surgeries to straighten one bone without fixing the offset elsewhere, hothousing and raising them on lone turnout a few hours a day followed by the entire balance in a stall, etc. You end up with a massive gorgeous beast that can't beat a fat man on the way to a free meal and has fragile, brittle bones.

I think Madelyn has made a crucial point here one that has been highlighted this side of the pond for some years by some of the top trainers in Europe the fact that a lot of the better bred US horses are having cosmetic surgery to enhance their looks and selling power.

There has been a movement to get rid of drugs, steroids, and now lasik the next main issue should be surgery on young horses or at least keep a detailed record in the horses passport of what surgery it has undergone to disclose it to its future owner.