Pedigree Query

GR III Sunland Derby to be run this Sunday at 1 1/8th miles. Looks like a decent race. Commissioner adds blinkers (shades of Palace Malice....pun intended:>) for Pletcher, who also sends Global Strike. Also sending two is Baffert with Chitu (who pressed Candy Boy in the R.B. Lewis) and Midnight Hawk who wheels right back off two weeks rest. PP's below. TJ

Eleventh Race Approx Post Time: 5:40
12th Running ofThe Sunland Derby (Grade III)
$800,000 Guaranteed
$1 Daily Double /$1 Exacta /$1Trifecta /$1 Superfecta/.50 Super Hi 5
Purse $800,000. 1 1/8 Miles. Stakes. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.

1 Bourbonize L Vazquez, R 122
2 Garen L Espinoza, V 122
3 Commissioner L Velazquez, J 122
4 Global Strike L Castellano, J 122
5 Tanzanite Cat L Arroyo, Jr., N 122
6 Lawly's Goal L Rosendo, I 122
7 Midnight Hawk L Smith, M 122
8 Rebranded L Eikleberry, R 122
9 Chitu L Garcia, M 122
Blinkers On: Commissioner; Rebranded
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1838782

post error

If Candy Boy is the real deal, then Chitu should be tough to beat. Commissioner should improve with blinker's and Midnight Hawk runs back on short notice. TJ
Chitu
Commissioner
Midnight Hawk
Global Strike

I like Chitu and Tanzanite Cat.

Here's the finish:

Chitu
Midnight Hawk
Commissioner
Rebranded

Here's the replay...Chitu received a 102 beyer for his effort. TJ
http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?tra ... ountry=USA

TJ: Certainly a commendable effort by Chitu in the Sunland Derby.

Looking ahead to the Kentucky Derby, is that going to be his final start before the first Sat in May?

Looking at his running style: Will he be able to rate off the pace? He seems to be a horse with tremendous speed (going six furlongs in 108 and change and going six furlongs of the Sunland Derby in 109 3/5. Usually that spells defeat for a derby contender. Note: I said usually, not always.

Who was the last horse to lead them wire to wire in the Derby? I think it was War Emblem in 2002. Smarty Jones prompted the pace over a sloppy track in 2004. Big Brown similarly prompted the pace in 2008.

He could do it and having Buckpasser in the X passing position by way of AP Indy is a plus (AP Indy as a broodmare sire has an average winning distance of his progeny of 8.2).

stancaris wrote:TJ: Certainly a commendable effort by Chitu in the Sunland Derby.

Looking ahead to the Kentucky Derby, is that going to be his final start before the first Sat in May?

Looking at his running style: Will he be able to rate off the pace? He seems to be a horse with tremendous speed (going six furlongs in 108 and change and going six furlongs of the Sunland Derby in 109 3/5. Usually that spells defeat for a derby contender. Note: I said usually, not always.

Who was the last horse to lead them wire to wire in the Derby? I think it was War Emblem in 2002. Smarty Jones prompted the pace over a sloppy track in 2004. Big Brown similarly prompted the pace in 2008.

He could do it and having Buckpasser in the X passing position by way of AP Indy is a plus (AP Indy as a broodmare sire has an average winning distance of his progeny of 8.2).

Hi Stan,
There are quite a few Derby prospects that like to be on or close to the lead this season. Sunland Park's Derby prep isn't a true indicator of quality horses....unless you see one that comes from out of the clouds as Mine That Bird did. Keeping that in mind, in my opinion. the only horse that could have a chance in the Ky. Derby, would be Commissioner....and if you like Buckpasser in a pedigree see what you think of his cross? This was the perfect prep time wise for a Pletcher horse....this race gives him his preferred 6 week layoff between races and I expect him to get the distance of the Derby. JV doesn't have a Derby horse yet and I think this may just be his choice? The upcoming 100 point preps beginning this Saturday with three 100 pointer's, will begin to clear up the picture? TJ

TJ: Commissioner only has 10 points for finishing third in the Sunland Derby and that is not likely to get him in the Derby gate. I think he will have to run one more time to insure a position in the Derby gate.

He does have a nice cross of Buckpasser 4X4 and his broodmare sire Touch Gold won the Belmont Stakes. He just needs more points to insure a position in the Derby gate.

Did any of the runners in last years Derby get into the race with only 10 points?

stancaris wrote:TJ: Commissioner only has 10 points for finishing third in the Sunland Derby and that is not likely to get him in the Derby gate. I think he will have to run one more time to insure a position in the Derby gate.

He does have a nice cross of Buckpasser 4X4 and his broodmare sire Touch Gold won the Belmont Stakes. He just needs more points to insure a position in the Derby gate.

Did any of the runners in last years Derby get into the race with only 10 points?

Hi Stan,
Yes....he's 29th on the list of fast falling 3YO's, which is his only chance of securing a spot. More then 1/2 the speed horses in front of him won't go the distance and if Pletcher presses this horse to get points, he won't win anyway? Too many trainers are pushing their horses to make points to get in the Derby....and the horses aren't responding well to it. I'm starting to think this point system is creating more problems then they are solving. They created this system to keep horses like Trinniberg from getting to the Derby. Looks like there's a field full of Trinniberg's going into this years Derby. Looking forward to see what happens Saturday.....we have a couple decent closers in the LA. Derby...but looks like more of the same speed horses in the FL. Derby. Last year Golden Soul, ran 2nd, he had 14 points. TJ

Thoughts on Midnight Hawk?
I still think he's something special in his build and power, but seems to need the lightbulb to go on, or work on stamina.

Toccet02 wrote:Thoughts on Midnight Hawk?
I still think he's something special in his build and power, but seems to need the lightbulb to go on, or work on stamina.

Hi Toccet,
He's tough to figure. I imagine if Mike Smith picks him in the Derby, his stock goes up:>) But he seems to be one of a number of equally rated horses, that will be on or near the pace making this one of the toughest Derby's to handicap in years. California Chrome handled this horse so easily....and Ca. Chrome is now the 5-1 choice in the Derby future book. We have seven 100-40-20-10 point races starting this weekend thru April 12th, so the picture might clear up, but certainly will change the Derby lineup if nothing else? This Saturday 3/29, we have three, 100 pointer's....the Florida Derby, UAE Derby and Louisiana Derby. TJ

stancaris wrote:TJ: Commissioner only has 10 points for finishing third in the Sunland Derby and that is not likely to get him in the Derby gate. I think he will have to run one more time to insure a position in the Derby gate.

He does have a nice cross of Buckpasser 4X4 and his broodmare sire Touch Gold won the Belmont Stakes. He just needs more points to insure a position in the Derby gate.

Did any of the runners in last years Derby get into the race with only 10 points?

Hi Stan,
It's confirmed, they will run Commissioner back in the Arkansas Derby on April 12th. TJ

TJ: Thanks for the information. Do you happen to know where Tonalist is going next?

stancaris wrote:TJ: Thanks for the information. Do you happen to know where Tonalist is going next?

Hi Stan,
Tonalist is due to breeze tomorrow (3/27) at Payson Park.....following his work, Clement will decide whether to run in the GR I Wood Memorial or the GR III Calder Derby, both races scheduled to be run on April 5th. TJ