Neither of my mares Princess Eloise or Ms Isadora is in foal. I have decided it is time for me to try breeding to sell and ease out of the racing- training. After watching and selling at Keeneland Sept, I have the idea that to sell it would be best to breed to a first year stallion, unless of course you can afford a really good proven horse. My top price for each mare is $20000.
I plan to be in Lexington to look at stallions during the sale. I would like to look at Offlee Wild, Powerscourt, Eddinton and Limehouseas first year horses. I also have Broken Bow as a possibe for Princess and Langfurh for Isadora. as the proven horses.
Any ideas would be greatly appreciated
thanks
help with stallion selection
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn, Diane
Hi Meg,
I'm trying to catch up and see that no one has responded to you. Pardons from all of us on that.
If I have your mares corrrectly, they are half sisters?
Can you give a physical description of the mares?
Regards,
Pete
I'm trying to catch up and see that no one has responded to you. Pardons from all of us on that.
If I have your mares corrrectly, they are half sisters?
Can you give a physical description of the mares?
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
-
Morningside
- Maiden Special Weight
- Posts: 205
- Joined: Thu Oct 13, 2005 7:13 pm
- Location: New York, NY
Hi Morningside and Meg,
First, you overbid me on #137. If I ever catch you overbidding me again I'm gonna come uptown and put flies in your soup!
I think Limehouse will be well if not enthusiastically supported. I dislike his 'cockamamie' price point @$17,500. Either bite the bullet and make it $20,000 or bite the bullet and make it $15,000.
He was a tough racehorse who won 2 stakes in each of the three years that he raced and that kind of consistency will win him some constituency
Broken Vow is a one-trick pony, albeit an impressive trick (Private Vow), for the moment. He'll need to add another graded SW or his visibility will hang on Private Vow.
Like Limehouse, Eddington will have commercial support in his first year. Given that the mares are proven producers these matings seem sensible for the commercial market.
Regards,
Pete
First, you overbid me on #137. If I ever catch you overbidding me again I'm gonna come uptown and put flies in your soup!
I think Limehouse will be well if not enthusiastically supported. I dislike his 'cockamamie' price point @$17,500. Either bite the bullet and make it $20,000 or bite the bullet and make it $15,000.
He was a tough racehorse who won 2 stakes in each of the three years that he raced and that kind of consistency will win him some constituency
Broken Vow is a one-trick pony, albeit an impressive trick (Private Vow), for the moment. He'll need to add another graded SW or his visibility will hang on Private Vow.
Like Limehouse, Eddington will have commercial support in his first year. Given that the mares are proven producers these matings seem sensible for the commercial market.
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
Hi Austique,
Limehouse is a heavily, even severely inbred stallion prospect. It's the direction that the commercial breeders are taking because they literally can't cram enough Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector blood into their foals.
If Stevie Wonderboy were to go to the shed right now his fee would be higher than his sires'. The pedigree technique used to breed him is line duplication but it’s nearly to an extreme with Weekend Surprise 3x3, both sire and dam have dam sires from the Turn-To line and their bottom lines both bring in Mahmoud, Princequillo and Teddy. Effectively they mated 2 horses that were nearly identical in pedigree content – with stunning success.
In 2005, 48.5% of the foals sold at the Keeneland September Yearling sale were inbred 4x4 or closer, a staggering figure up from about 28% just a few years ago.
The simple fact is that outcrosses outperform inbreeding on the track and have for many years. When there was a smaller gene pool, breeders like Marcel Broussac would outcross and then inbreed in the next generation. That was a solid technique at the time and though the sheer numbers of thoroughbreds born in the last 30 years should offer more diversity the breeder's are choosing to go with blood that is certain to sell.
The Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer sire lines have evolved into distinct strains, (and Turn-To through Halo and Roberto) meaning that sons have established lines that are significantly different from each other so that they bring different characteristics to a mating even if it's with the same source blood.
At least in the case of Limehouse there's a solid bracket pattern that's proven successful (usually in the 4th generation, not 3rd) of Mr. Prospector sire tail/dam tail line bracketing Northern Dancer on sire dam line and dam sire line.
The most dynamic catalyst in creating impact stallions is new blood. The Phalaris sire lines domination of the past 40 years are the result of Teddy blood being introduced and reintroduced in succeeding generations, first in Tom Fool, then Raise A Native, then the sons of Northern Dancer and finally Mr. Prospector (who has Teddy 4 x 5 x 7). It's not that Teddy blood wasn't introduced to Phalaris line stallions before Tom Fool - using it simply wasn't successful in creating impact sires.
Both Mr. Prospector and Turn-To sire’s lines have had a similar reaction to Hyperion blood - few impacting sires. Best Turn (earlier) and Dynaformer (recently) are notable exceptions and like Tom Fool’s sire line (the earliest with new Teddy blood) Best Turn’s line is less potent than later impact sires of this new blood. Take a look at the pedigrees of Turn-To line stallions (not the sons of Halo or exceptions noted) and Hyperion isn’t present.
New blood is now affecting the Turn-To sire line, through Halo, as evidenced by his most impacting sons. Sunday Silence (5 x 6), Southern Halo, Saint Ballado and Devil's Bag all have Hyperion as new blood and they are successful. This also implies that their sons will need additional Hyperion to have the potential to be impacting sires (Saint Liam has 2 additional strains of Hyperion through his dam - good balanced). I hypothesize that Sunday Silence’s extreme success in Japan is due to his 2 strains of Hyperion (rather than just 1) that are more compatible with the Japanese mare base than they would have been with the North American mares. Technically this is an overload (not extreme) that has partially subverted Sunday Silence and it may hinder his ability to sire impacting stallions, just as Alydar and Affirmed did not become sire of sires because (partly) of an overload of Teddy blood. Mr. Prospector line sires have a huge tolerance for Teddy blood, but Raise A Native less so.
Please keep in mind that I’m discussing the creation of impact sires and how sire line dominance is maintained. There have been many quality runners (though fewer than the average) that have new blood, but until the herd is ready for it, there are no impact sires using that blood. Nature rules and they are Natures’ rules.
For a generation or more, Northern Dancer has been a packager of Hyperion blood, making it useful to sire lines that otherwise won’t have much success with it. It’s also the reason that the incredible Northern Dancer, sire of sires, is a failed dam sire of sires. It’s not coincidental that Secretariat, devoid of Hyperion, is the great dam sire of sires. It’s also not coincidental that Mr. Prospector, a great sire of sires, is an impacting dam sire of sires, precisely because he lacks Hyperion.
I feel that breeders too often assume that inherited affinities exist, where a sire (or blood) that worked in one generation is used in the next. Statistically, inherited affinities are only available in about 30% of matings. The flip side is that while Northern Dancer, because of his Hyperion, has not been the impacting dam sire of sires that he was expected to be, we shouldn’t believe that his sons won’t be. The blood needs of the herd change over time and Hyperion delivered by Northern Dancer himself is not Hyperion blood delivered by Dixieland Band and El Gran Senor (two of the most successful packagers of Hyperion). Humans and Nature meet in their need for horses to have speed but Nature demands it for survival and despite our efforts she will have her way. The Icecapade line, especially through Wild Again, readily accept Hyperion and packae it but not as well as Northern Dancer's line.
Turn-To line HAD been resilient in it’s denial of Hyperion in their best sires but clearly, as expressed by the best sons of Halo, this is changing. Hyperion is poised to be the next Teddy and perhaps the most important blood to follow in the examination of potentially impacting sires over the coming years.
I didn't say how I feel Limehouse will do and frankly I didn't do a complete analysis on him once I saw his pedigree. He was sound enough and consistent so the negative influences associated (mostly with Mr. Prospector) didn't seem to affect him.
Gone West has a single strain of Hyperion as new blood (pattern correct) and Grand Slam has 4 strains returned through his dam, Bright Candles (overload). Limehouse has 6 additional strains of Hyperion returned through his dam (possible overload). Simply by pattern analysis Limehouse has acquired 11 strains of Hyperion in 3 generations and while this can be an overload, it may not be. Mr. Prospector line could accept as much or more Teddy in the past. Generally more strains of new blood can be reintroduced in suceeding generations.
If Limehouse is now overloaded with Hyperion it won’t prevent him from being a successful sire but we’ll know that he is overloaded if his best runners are fillies, just as you see in Dynaformer who has Hyperion as new blood 5x5 (overload for first generation new blood) and is considered a filly sire (subverted). Dynaformer does get some quality sons, but I don’t anticipate impact sires from him and he has none to date.
My problem with Limehouse is the difficulty in creating matings because of his pedigree. If I felt that he was a compelling choice I would make the effort. The real question for Meg should be if Limehouse foals will have commercial appeal and I think that they will. Once his foals run we’ll get a good idea of how the Mr. Prospector line is being affected by the ‘new’ Hyperion blood and its’ return in Limehouses’ sire line.
Neither Limehouse nor Eddington will have racing foals so their commercial appeal will be high in their first crop. Meg’s mares are both black-typed and proven producers so breeding them to new stallions isn’t a problem and they should be commercially accepted. Whether Limehouse has been subverted (probably not capable of siring impact sons) with too much Hyperion he can still be a fine sire as Dynaformer proves.
Just a note, In Reality and Seattle Slew are both free of Hyperion too. Amazing how this global influencing stallion wasn’t represented in the pedigrees of so many top sire lines even 70 years after his birth.
(That was a mouthful).
Regards,
Pete
© 2005 This article is the sole property of the author and may not be reproduced without the prior permission.
Limehouse is a heavily, even severely inbred stallion prospect. It's the direction that the commercial breeders are taking because they literally can't cram enough Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector blood into their foals.
If Stevie Wonderboy were to go to the shed right now his fee would be higher than his sires'. The pedigree technique used to breed him is line duplication but it’s nearly to an extreme with Weekend Surprise 3x3, both sire and dam have dam sires from the Turn-To line and their bottom lines both bring in Mahmoud, Princequillo and Teddy. Effectively they mated 2 horses that were nearly identical in pedigree content – with stunning success.
In 2005, 48.5% of the foals sold at the Keeneland September Yearling sale were inbred 4x4 or closer, a staggering figure up from about 28% just a few years ago.
The simple fact is that outcrosses outperform inbreeding on the track and have for many years. When there was a smaller gene pool, breeders like Marcel Broussac would outcross and then inbreed in the next generation. That was a solid technique at the time and though the sheer numbers of thoroughbreds born in the last 30 years should offer more diversity the breeder's are choosing to go with blood that is certain to sell.
The Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer sire lines have evolved into distinct strains, (and Turn-To through Halo and Roberto) meaning that sons have established lines that are significantly different from each other so that they bring different characteristics to a mating even if it's with the same source blood.
At least in the case of Limehouse there's a solid bracket pattern that's proven successful (usually in the 4th generation, not 3rd) of Mr. Prospector sire tail/dam tail line bracketing Northern Dancer on sire dam line and dam sire line.
The most dynamic catalyst in creating impact stallions is new blood. The Phalaris sire lines domination of the past 40 years are the result of Teddy blood being introduced and reintroduced in succeeding generations, first in Tom Fool, then Raise A Native, then the sons of Northern Dancer and finally Mr. Prospector (who has Teddy 4 x 5 x 7). It's not that Teddy blood wasn't introduced to Phalaris line stallions before Tom Fool - using it simply wasn't successful in creating impact sires.
Both Mr. Prospector and Turn-To sire’s lines have had a similar reaction to Hyperion blood - few impacting sires. Best Turn (earlier) and Dynaformer (recently) are notable exceptions and like Tom Fool’s sire line (the earliest with new Teddy blood) Best Turn’s line is less potent than later impact sires of this new blood. Take a look at the pedigrees of Turn-To line stallions (not the sons of Halo or exceptions noted) and Hyperion isn’t present.
New blood is now affecting the Turn-To sire line, through Halo, as evidenced by his most impacting sons. Sunday Silence (5 x 6), Southern Halo, Saint Ballado and Devil's Bag all have Hyperion as new blood and they are successful. This also implies that their sons will need additional Hyperion to have the potential to be impacting sires (Saint Liam has 2 additional strains of Hyperion through his dam - good balanced). I hypothesize that Sunday Silence’s extreme success in Japan is due to his 2 strains of Hyperion (rather than just 1) that are more compatible with the Japanese mare base than they would have been with the North American mares. Technically this is an overload (not extreme) that has partially subverted Sunday Silence and it may hinder his ability to sire impacting stallions, just as Alydar and Affirmed did not become sire of sires because (partly) of an overload of Teddy blood. Mr. Prospector line sires have a huge tolerance for Teddy blood, but Raise A Native less so.
Please keep in mind that I’m discussing the creation of impact sires and how sire line dominance is maintained. There have been many quality runners (though fewer than the average) that have new blood, but until the herd is ready for it, there are no impact sires using that blood. Nature rules and they are Natures’ rules.
For a generation or more, Northern Dancer has been a packager of Hyperion blood, making it useful to sire lines that otherwise won’t have much success with it. It’s also the reason that the incredible Northern Dancer, sire of sires, is a failed dam sire of sires. It’s not coincidental that Secretariat, devoid of Hyperion, is the great dam sire of sires. It’s also not coincidental that Mr. Prospector, a great sire of sires, is an impacting dam sire of sires, precisely because he lacks Hyperion.
I feel that breeders too often assume that inherited affinities exist, where a sire (or blood) that worked in one generation is used in the next. Statistically, inherited affinities are only available in about 30% of matings. The flip side is that while Northern Dancer, because of his Hyperion, has not been the impacting dam sire of sires that he was expected to be, we shouldn’t believe that his sons won’t be. The blood needs of the herd change over time and Hyperion delivered by Northern Dancer himself is not Hyperion blood delivered by Dixieland Band and El Gran Senor (two of the most successful packagers of Hyperion). Humans and Nature meet in their need for horses to have speed but Nature demands it for survival and despite our efforts she will have her way. The Icecapade line, especially through Wild Again, readily accept Hyperion and packae it but not as well as Northern Dancer's line.
Turn-To line HAD been resilient in it’s denial of Hyperion in their best sires but clearly, as expressed by the best sons of Halo, this is changing. Hyperion is poised to be the next Teddy and perhaps the most important blood to follow in the examination of potentially impacting sires over the coming years.
I didn't say how I feel Limehouse will do and frankly I didn't do a complete analysis on him once I saw his pedigree. He was sound enough and consistent so the negative influences associated (mostly with Mr. Prospector) didn't seem to affect him.
Gone West has a single strain of Hyperion as new blood (pattern correct) and Grand Slam has 4 strains returned through his dam, Bright Candles (overload). Limehouse has 6 additional strains of Hyperion returned through his dam (possible overload). Simply by pattern analysis Limehouse has acquired 11 strains of Hyperion in 3 generations and while this can be an overload, it may not be. Mr. Prospector line could accept as much or more Teddy in the past. Generally more strains of new blood can be reintroduced in suceeding generations.
If Limehouse is now overloaded with Hyperion it won’t prevent him from being a successful sire but we’ll know that he is overloaded if his best runners are fillies, just as you see in Dynaformer who has Hyperion as new blood 5x5 (overload for first generation new blood) and is considered a filly sire (subverted). Dynaformer does get some quality sons, but I don’t anticipate impact sires from him and he has none to date.
My problem with Limehouse is the difficulty in creating matings because of his pedigree. If I felt that he was a compelling choice I would make the effort. The real question for Meg should be if Limehouse foals will have commercial appeal and I think that they will. Once his foals run we’ll get a good idea of how the Mr. Prospector line is being affected by the ‘new’ Hyperion blood and its’ return in Limehouses’ sire line.
Neither Limehouse nor Eddington will have racing foals so their commercial appeal will be high in their first crop. Meg’s mares are both black-typed and proven producers so breeding them to new stallions isn’t a problem and they should be commercially accepted. Whether Limehouse has been subverted (probably not capable of siring impact sons) with too much Hyperion he can still be a fine sire as Dynaformer proves.
Just a note, In Reality and Seattle Slew are both free of Hyperion too. Amazing how this global influencing stallion wasn’t represented in the pedigrees of so many top sire lines even 70 years after his birth.
(That was a mouthful).
Regards,
Pete
© 2005 This article is the sole property of the author and may not be reproduced without the prior permission.
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
Hi Colonel,
I'm a fan of Turn-To as well. It's the first line that pedigree analysts should study because it's more compact, consistent and remains vital.
Turn-To stallions can be very commercial but lag Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer. There's less emphasis on getting them into the shed early, it's a less precocious line and thus you see them in better number in the older horse division.
More Than Ready is doing well and is nothing short of a sensation in Australia His profile is much like early El Prado, a sire in search of a big horse but a solid number of stakes horses. Vinery didn't (seem to) manipulate sales prices (kudos). The fact that he's doing so well in Australia is an indicaton that he's still lightly subverted (his sire moreso). and his future may be south of the equator (AUS or even South America).
He should be standing for $20,000. I've rated his value as:
Commerial: $18,000 Race: $12,000
Rock Hard Ten differs from all other leading sons of Kris S. sent to stud because his dam's sire is Mr. Prospector. Most sons of Kris S. have been competent but failed to gain commercial viability. Rock Hard Ten has as good a chance as any to be viewed more favorably. My own notes on this guy are extensive, he's overpriced and has liabilities in his pedigree. He remains completely free of Hyperion.
Commerial: $40,000 Race: $8,000
Saint Liam is another Turn-To line stallion prospect that excelled as an older horse (5). His consistency allowed him to pick up the pieces of a jumbled older horse division. I like his genetics (Hyperion properly reintroduced) and his qualities are better balanced to be a successful sire than Rock Hard Ten but he won't be as commercially appealing (at the outset). I believe he will see a (significant) price reduction (@ $15,000) before he'll be able to get on track.
Commerial: $30,000 Race: $12,000
Flame Thrower had a weak Freshman year especially standing in Florida. Precocity isn't the hallmark you look for in Turn-To line stallions (Devil's Bag vs. Saint Ballado). He has Hyperion (6 x 8 x 7) from his dam - an overload for reintro of this blood. I don't think he was well handled entering stud either.
Commerial: $2,000 Race: $3,000
Commercial/Race value is my estimation of how well a particular stallion will perform to task. $3,000 (race) means that I believe I can find stallions at that price point to give me similar results.
Regards,
Pete
I'm a fan of Turn-To as well. It's the first line that pedigree analysts should study because it's more compact, consistent and remains vital.
Turn-To stallions can be very commercial but lag Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer. There's less emphasis on getting them into the shed early, it's a less precocious line and thus you see them in better number in the older horse division.
More Than Ready is doing well and is nothing short of a sensation in Australia His profile is much like early El Prado, a sire in search of a big horse but a solid number of stakes horses. Vinery didn't (seem to) manipulate sales prices (kudos). The fact that he's doing so well in Australia is an indicaton that he's still lightly subverted (his sire moreso). and his future may be south of the equator (AUS or even South America).
He should be standing for $20,000. I've rated his value as:
Commerial: $18,000 Race: $12,000
Rock Hard Ten differs from all other leading sons of Kris S. sent to stud because his dam's sire is Mr. Prospector. Most sons of Kris S. have been competent but failed to gain commercial viability. Rock Hard Ten has as good a chance as any to be viewed more favorably. My own notes on this guy are extensive, he's overpriced and has liabilities in his pedigree. He remains completely free of Hyperion.
Commerial: $40,000 Race: $8,000
Saint Liam is another Turn-To line stallion prospect that excelled as an older horse (5). His consistency allowed him to pick up the pieces of a jumbled older horse division. I like his genetics (Hyperion properly reintroduced) and his qualities are better balanced to be a successful sire than Rock Hard Ten but he won't be as commercially appealing (at the outset). I believe he will see a (significant) price reduction (@ $15,000) before he'll be able to get on track.
Commerial: $30,000 Race: $12,000
Flame Thrower had a weak Freshman year especially standing in Florida. Precocity isn't the hallmark you look for in Turn-To line stallions (Devil's Bag vs. Saint Ballado). He has Hyperion (6 x 8 x 7) from his dam - an overload for reintro of this blood. I don't think he was well handled entering stud either.
Commerial: $2,000 Race: $3,000
Commercial/Race value is my estimation of how well a particular stallion will perform to task. $3,000 (race) means that I believe I can find stallions at that price point to give me similar results.
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
Hi all,
I dislike having to explain myself after bulky responses. Poor writing.
Commercial and Race values refer as above but are only for a particular year. I do make future projections (other years) but they're not germane. Race value for unproven stallions is a general prediction of the quality of foals I expect. It's REAL RARE for this value to be equal to or above Commercial value.
Success for a stallion is to be a sire of sires. When I speak of overloads as problems, it is NOT a barrier to siring good horses but not likely that they will sire impacting sires.
Someone asked my about this stallion.
Ocean Terrace is a lightly raced son of Saint Ballado who won 3 of 5 starts showing some brilliance winning the El Camino Real Derby (G3 @ 8.5f) defeating Ten Most Wanted and Ministers Wildcat. Route wins are better harbingers for this sire line than sprints. He has a single return of Hyperion in the 8th generation, (I'd pref it closer a generation) and solid pedigree content. Commercial value: $5,000 Race value: $3,000
Regards,
Pete
I dislike having to explain myself after bulky responses. Poor writing.
Commercial and Race values refer as above but are only for a particular year. I do make future projections (other years) but they're not germane. Race value for unproven stallions is a general prediction of the quality of foals I expect. It's REAL RARE for this value to be equal to or above Commercial value.
Success for a stallion is to be a sire of sires. When I speak of overloads as problems, it is NOT a barrier to siring good horses but not likely that they will sire impacting sires.
Someone asked my about this stallion.
Ocean Terrace is a lightly raced son of Saint Ballado who won 3 of 5 starts showing some brilliance winning the El Camino Real Derby (G3 @ 8.5f) defeating Ten Most Wanted and Ministers Wildcat. Route wins are better harbingers for this sire line than sprints. He has a single return of Hyperion in the 8th generation, (I'd pref it closer a generation) and solid pedigree content. Commercial value: $5,000 Race value: $3,000
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms