How does this horse look?

[griff]

Where can i find more about VGS?

griff

[hpkingjr]

Google for Goldmine Gr1 and you should pull up the web site. You can download for free and it explains the Ventura Geo Score. Michael Ventura posts on the forum so so can PM him with questions.

[llbean]

I ran some of the combos in her pedigree. Northern Dancer with Mr. P gives a 1.55 VGS or 1 and 1/2 times the expected Grade 1 winners. Mr. P with Tom Rolf is 1.35 and Mr. P with Hail To Reason is 1.36 so they have achieved about 1 and 1/3 times the expected Gr. 1 winners. What I do not know is whether you can extrapolate the results for general stakes winners. All of the combo's are positive so I would be optimistic about her as well.

When you speak of a VGS of 1.55 with Mr. P and ND it is my understanding (and correct me Michael if I am wrong) that if those stallions averaged 2% Grade 1 winners you would expect a 3% chance with your foal. Obviously if the numbers can be extrapolated then the 15% stakes winners overall become 22.5% stakes winners. I would see no reason why you could not extrapolate those numbers

Hi Patrick,

If Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer average 2% Grade 1 Winners for their descendants, then you could expect 3% Grade 1 Winners for horses combining Mr Prospector and Northern Dancer given their VGS.

However, if your Mr P + Northern Dancer foal has unusually good recent ancestry relative to most other Mr P + Northern Dancer foals, then you could even expect a higher than 3% chance of a Grade 1 Winner (assuming of course the figure of 2% was accurate).

But by the same token, lower quality recent ancestors could push down your chances of success (though it'd still be higher with a high VGS than it would have been without it).

To use an extreme example to make a point; if you have a choice between sending a mare to the stallion Slowy McWeakgenes and getting a nice high VGS and sending that same mare to Storm Cat without getting a high VGS; the mating with Storm Cat would likely result in a better foal than the mating to Slowy McWeakgenes.

However, it also would've been FAR more expensive and in terms of actually making money as opposed to going bankrupt (or wasting money for no reason if you're rich), a high VGS mating would be the way to go (just not to Slowy McWeakgenes if he's not high quality enough a stallion for your program).

Obviously if the numbers can be extrapolated then the 15% stakes winners overall become 22.5% stakes winners. I would see no reason why you could not extrapolate those numbers

I can't think of any reason either and I'll just add the caveat that it stands to reason that VGSs based on smaller sample sizes are less likely to extrapolate to Stakes Winners to a high degree of exactness.

-Michael

[hpkingjr]

Michael:

Thanks for the clarifications and thanks for including your link at the bottom of your reply. I was having trouble laying hands on it and Griff wanted the contact info.