Dosage question

[madelyn]

Dosage profiles are not a good indicator in US, because the drugs horses are
allowed to run on there make them run further than they are suppose to.

Dosage profiles are not really a good indicator, in my opinion, anywhere. They are all based on values attributed to the stallions in a horse's pedigree. Those values are all based on Steve Roman's OPINION of those stallions and whether or not he has designated them as a "chef de race". They are historical, rather than predictive. Dosage profiles are established for stallions after they have been in production for some time. Where they are entirely useless is when you have the offspring of a young sire, by a young sire, and a broodmare by a young sire whose sire is also young. When you have to look at the third generation or beyond to find a dosage value in the sireline, you might as well toss the whole theory in the trash. I know they are graded by where they appear in the pedigree. I just don't believe that they are factually based or relevant.

I think it is a non sequitur - to try to link medications in race horses to horses outperforming their dosage profiles. I know there are many horses out there running medication free that have far outrun their dosages.

[dray33]

I know there are many horses out there running medication free that have far outrun their dosages.

Are we talking steroids or pedigree

[spex4me]

That's why I like to put DI's against the CPM. You at least get 2 sides to the story. Personally I love a horse that has complimentary DI's and CPM. But again in a few years I may ask what I was smoking??!!

[Roger]

I think that there are times when you can lend some credibilty to dosage like when you have enough sure fire "chefs" up close. Ribot up close gave a lot stamina. What we can't tell from dosage is how fast they are going to run at their best distance and I think that is more important. I like the basic dosage numbers. All the other stuff can mislead you. If you have a lot large numbers to me it indicates that class is up close and I like that. I respect Bill's knowledge so I hesitate to disagree with him, but when you have numbers like 10-10-10-10-10, to me it indicates a horse that doesn't have a strength. I would like to see something like 0-0-20-0-0. I don't know which is really best, but in my example the horse would be inbred to the Classic distance. If you have a 15-0-0-0-0, you have an inbred brilliant and to me the very worse would be a 30-0-0-0-30
It might all come together, but the odds are against it. Crazy Roger's thoughts on dosage.

[walaa]

Dosage is BS. Years ago when they came out with all this dosage stuff, up till now even when it is very 'advanced" and now there is all kind of dosage, nicks, etc. I watched and believed some of it, then, when every dercby winner for a million years had a dosage over 2.8 or something I realized it was complete BS, which I had suspected, but stil, you want to think you know how to pick this years winner Several years ago, you would even hear the announcers talking about dosage, before the race, and talking about how there was no way this or that horse could win, because of his "dosage". And then of course, some horse would win, with a dosage of 50.3 (just joking) but really usually for those couple years, that I specifically remember them mentioning dosage, 3 or higher. Thank god at least they dont talk about that anymore before the derby, I think they realize how bogus it is Well, maybe it isnt bogus, because I dont actually own a racehorse, or whatever it takes to make a knowledgeable, politically correct and accepted post but to me it seems bogus.

[walaa]

and yes, before everyone starts their bashing and razzing, I DO realize they had ideas about dosgae and nicks a hundred years ago, and that it didnt just start a few years ago as my post stated, but the ideas then originated with a very different type of breeder and horseman than the average breeder/owner we see today. JMHO And yes, I am an owner, so cant bash me thier either just to let you know beforehand

[Roger]

Walaa, what do you see in a pedigree that has AP Indy up close?

[walaa]

Seattle Slew

[Roger]

Seattle Slew

What is there about Seattle Slew that you want in your babies?

[Bill from WA]

Hi Roger

In order to get anything out of the conduit mare numbers you must understand the concept. I came up with this methodology because the Varola/Roman dosage system completely ignored the female side of the equation. Modern genetic science has verified the important contributions that are passed through the female of any species, and I thought it was time to develop a way of looking at pedigree via the female family influences. The aptitudinal ranges are the same as dosage, but how they are realized is completely different. Instead of selecting certain individuals and dubbing them as "conduit mares", or "chefs-de-race", I thought there should be a way of examining the aptitudinal contributions of every individual within a 4 generation pedigree, and this is how the concept of the conduit mare was born. Every thoroughbred foaled after the dates circa 1960 (and some before) has a conduit mare. I didn't pick them, they just are. A conduit mare is the mare foaled closest to the year 1900, and never before that date, that is found tail female in a pedigree. Racing or breeding success is not a factor, and they are not selected by anyone, they are merely points of reference used to disseminate data.
In order to estabish aptitudinal ranges I have examined the winners of well over 400 higher class races, run worldwide and contested after the year 1960 (now well over 20,000 individual races), and traced these winners back to their conduit mares (foaled circa 1900). I then placed these conduit mares in the aptitudinal categories that the majority of their descendants were at their best, and assigned that category of influence to each conduit mare. These ranges were based on the results of higher class races, and I wondered if the numbers would hold true in lower class races, so I examined 6000 races of every class and distance run during a three year period of racing in California. The numbers held true.
These profiles are not etched in stone, but do give an idea of the optimum distances at which an individual athlete might realize the most success.
The examples of the numbers that you posted would almost be an impossibility, although I have encountered one profile (out of thousands) that had a profile of 5-5-5-5-5. The profiles created by the pedigree are a reflection of what all of the individuals within that pedigree have contributed (from a female family historical perspective) to the target horse. It's taken me years of research and thousands of hours of detailed work to develop this concept, primarily because I thought it was time that the female side of the thoroughbred pedigree had some deserved recognition.

Respectfuly,

Bill

[docjocoy]

I think it is a disservice to compare Bill's conduit mare profiles too closely with the dosage numbers. There is a similarity between the two, but Bill uses all the mares, not just "important" mares, as opposed to the dosage "chefs." I have used Bill's workbook and his numbers have helped a lot in getting an idea of what type runner a prospective, hypomated foal might turn out to be. The dosage numbers really don't help much.

[madelyn]

I think it is a disservice to compare Bill's conduit mare profiles too closely with the dosage numbers. There is a similarity between the two, but Bill uses all the mares, not just "important" mares, as opposed to the dosage "chefs." I have used Bill's workbook and his numbers have helped a lot in getting an idea of what type runner a prospective, hypomated foal might turn out to be. The dosage numbers really don't help much.

Exactly what docjocoy said. I put more faith in the conduit mare profile than dosage profiles. But both ignore horses of the opposite sex in a pedigree and are not a complete answer.

[docjocoy]

But both ignore horses of the opposite sex in a pedigree and are not a complete answer.

Exactly. I find the cmp's a useful tool, along with goldmine, nicking, a lot of pedigree research, conformation afinities, some intuition, some crapshooting, and some prayer.

[Roger]

Hey Bill, I still have not bought your book, but Christmas is coming soon. The clarity of my writing is at best foggy, All that I was disagreeing with was the idea that a large brilliant number would blend with large stamina numbers. I feel that most of the time breeding opposites results in something not as good as either extreme. Some times we get a Midnight Lute who if he could breath could do more than just sprint and he proves your point, but on the average I don't think it works. I wasn't suggesting that a 10-10-10-10-10 existed, but that when you have a lot of diversity in a pedigree, you have to be very lucky to get it all to work. I like a pedigrees to lean towards one aptidude and that gets to my theory on inbreeding to traits and not individuals (another thread)
Thanks Bill, I really do appreciate what you contibute. You are a nice guy to be a rebellious PK.

[Bill from WA]

Hi All

The CMP's do not ignore half of the pedigree. They use the tail female data for the males in a pedigree, so that every horse within a four generation pedgree (both males and females are taken into account). In a four generation pedigree there are 16 points of reference that develop the conduit mare profiles. Yes, the data supplied is based on the contributions of the conduit mares (female families) in each of the individual's pedigrees, but the family contributions of each of the males are included, and not just ignored. There is so much information available regarding stallions (nicks, dosage, sire records, broodmare sire records, and on and on), all relating to the male, and leaving the female side out in the cold. The conduit mare profiles were never intended to be a "stand alone" tool, and the way "docjocoy" utilizes the information is exactly how I use it. I find that the CMP numbers are a better precursor of aptitudinal ability than the dosage index, and it is a good tool to utilize as part of an overall pedigree analysis program. When I prepare analyses for clients, I utilize the CMP profiles, tail male lines, tail female lines, historical success (G1 Goldmine is a great tool for this aspect) plus conformational and temperament compatibility. Please realize that this application was designed to just assist as part of an overall program, and should never be used as the only road home.

Bill