OK Pete and other fine pedigree gurus

[bcassidy]

I will throw in my two cents although it is not based upon pedigree analysis or nicking. ( not that I don't believe in it, I am just not good enough with it yet ) What I have done is select stallions based upon their ability to sire runners and hopefully outproduce the mares they are bred to. In New York, I get two stallions who I like a lot, Judge TC 8,500 at McMahons and Lycius 6,000 at Mill Creek. If you want to try a lightly bred stallion who has lots of potential and is very reasonable, try Kings Grant, 1,500. these are the only stallions I would consider in NY.

[Pete]

Hi Brendan,

Can I ask what criteria you're using that makes you like Judge T.C., Lycius and King's Grant?

Pete

[bcassidy]

Pete, hello, I see you have been a frequent poster on this site in the past and it is very nice to speak directly with you on this thread. I always enjoy reading your posts as they are very informative.
You probably haven't seen some of my other posts but if you ever want to read more of what I have written on this website you can always click on my profile and see all that I have written under "find all posts". You can probably learn more about me by actually reading many of my prior postings. As a summary, I have developed my own system to evaluate a stallion's production ability. It is based upon analyzing the racing ability of all of the stallions progeny in various catagories; 2,3,4 yr old, sprints, routes, turf, off tracks, etc (because my system is based upon the actual racing ability of a stallion's offspring--I can only evaluate stallions when their first crop begins to race, so I cannot evaluate first or second year breeding stallions.) What I have found by using this system for about 7 years or so, is that I can identify stallions that are truely undervalued when you compare their stud fee with their ability to produce above average runners. Almost all of the stallions I have identified, have seen their stud fees rise considerably from when I first identified them, and some of them like Elusive Qualtiy, Distorted Humor, Grand Slam and El Prado have risen substantially. Last year I found Northern Afleet and I believe (according to my system) that NA is as good as any stallion you can breed to, no matter the stud fee. I think NA will be one of the very top stallions in the very near future. The only bad thing about my system is that I usually only get 1 and sometimes 2 breeding seasons to get to him before he is a huge success and then his stud fee rises out of the stratosphere and I am off to find the next stallion. In a few cases like Eltish and West Acre they can lag a little longer than two years because of where they stand and the farm that manages them. I am glad to share my research with all on this board and I hope it helps someone with a breeding decision. If they can make some money with my data, whether they race or sell--that is even better.
In the case of the stallions I like in NY, Judge TC, Lycius and Kings Grant, my system has identified these stallions as being capable of "in general" producing an above average runner and sometimes these above average runners are being produced from very weak mares. In Judge TC's case he stood for 2,500 in Pa before moving to NY and standing for 8,500, Lycius has moved around a little and doesn't have the reputation he deserves but with some stability I think he will earn it very quickly. Kings Grant hasn't seen very many good mares but what he has produced is far better than the mares he visited. I would expect him to do much better if his book of mares ever improved but he is a definite sleeper and a great breed to race stallion. Of all three I like Judge TC the best. Hope that helps.

[aurora]

Pete, do you want to try a different Wavering Monarch mare for me? I posted earler in the year and got several opinions and yours would be most appreciated. The mare is Design Queen by WM out of Valid Design. I left her empty this year as she had a May foal and she will be ready to breed early 2006. She is a typical big bodied WM with those not so great front legs. A well conformed front end on a stallion is a must. Breed to sell, KY or FL preferred. She has a Salt Lake colt at side and he is dynamite.

[kimberley mine]

Pete, do you want to try a different Wavering Monarch mare for me? I posted earler in the year and got several opinions and yours would be most appreciated. The mare is Design Queen by WM out of Valid Design. I left her empty this year as she had a May foal and she will be ready to breed early 2006. She is a typical big bodied WM with those not so great front legs. A well conformed front end on a stallion is a must. Breed to sell, KY or FL preferred. She has a Salt Lake colt at side and he is dynamite.

Wavering Monarch appreciates Caro (champion Maria's Mon) and Turn-To, and also has done well with linebreeding to Ribot.

I can't speak for his front end, but Mizzen Mast is well-supported by Juddmonte, his yearlings are selling well, he has a strong sire-producing family behind him, and he brings in both Caro and Ribot. 2006 will be a bubble year to breed to him; bear that in mind.

[Pete]

Hi Brendan,

Sorry to be so long in my reply. My question about the NY stallions you mentioned was just simple curiosity about your method to select stallions since I've read your posts before where you've said that you have a system.

I would select different stallions, but that's what makes the world go round. I've bred to Judge TC, he's a nice race horse stallion.

You mentioned the quality of mares that these stallions may have been bred to and I feel that it's very important to objectively evaluate your mare in light of what the stallion has seen before.

Regards,

Pete

[Pete]

Hi Aurora,

Thanks for the nearly complete amount of info on Design Queen. I'd also like to know when you anticipate selling? (weanling or yearling), approximate stud fee range and if you hve any pictures of her and her Salt Lake foal.

Regards,

Pete

[aurora]

Hi Pete,

I've sent you a pm.

My plan is to sell the Salt Lake colt as a yearling at Keeneland Sept.

Stud fee range 10 - 15k.

No pictures yet.

[bcassidy]

Pete, Your comment about "that is what makes the world go round" is obviously very accurate but it amazes me to see the data some people use to evaluate and select a stallion. IMO, the industry is hurting itself through its failure to objectively evaluate the success of its Stallions and broodmares, which is the future of their industry. There is too much hype and not enough indesputable evidence to support a stallions stud fee. I believe it would be in everyone's best interest to have a better system to evaluate a stallion's breeding value. If this were the financial services industry can you imagine the tools that would have already been developed to grade a stallion's breeding prowess. IMO the single biggest reason it wouldn't be done today is that the big farms would be humbled "overnight". They would never risk the golden goose to prove something wrong when they already have the benefit of the findings without having to prove it. my system can also tell which stallions are over priced or over valued.

[Pete]

Hi Brendan,

So I'll assume that we'll use my numbers and algorithms because I know best?

What makes the world go round is that we value different things in stallions - and well we should, especially if we have different agendas.

Many people are willing to pay $125,000 to bet that Awesome Again will ejaculate with several sperm of the quality that can create a Ghostzapper and if not then at least a Toccet, Wilko or Round Pond.

The numbers that we do use are flawed and should be subject to interpretation. Few interpret these numbers and others don't even care that they exist.

I don't think I hold the financial sector in the same high esteem as you do. They have numbers that should be subject to interpretation and it's been enough of a problem for them that legislation that governs most of their disclosure.

I wouldn't choose any of the three stallions that you named in NY and then by definition - you wouldn't choose any that I'd select. Are you wrong? Me? Is it possible that we're both wrong?

If someone cares enough they will need to learn how to analyze and digest data regarding stallions so that they best meet their needs. A good starting point for anyone who wishes to engage this task is to understand their needs first!

Regards,

Pete

[bcassidy]

Pete, I breed to race but I am very interested in the breed for sale market. The only numbers that matter to me fall into two catagories, first does the stallion improve the mares he is breeding? and second what price does that improvement cost? I would agree with you that Awesome Again is an excellent stallion because I get very good numbers on him in my private system but at his stud fee there are other stallions that I think offer better value, however if your point is which stallion's offspring would I like to be selling at auction this year? ---I certainly understand why someone would want an Awesome Again in their consignment. Actually your example makes my point exactly, while my system likes Awesome Again--there are better stallions available for less money but clearly the hype value of Ghostzapper will contribute substantially to the prices being paid for many of Awesome Again's foals which sell this year. I don't believe exceptional individuals produced from a stallion is an objective way to evaluate a stallion's breeding value but I certainly recognize the value it provides when selling their foals at auction. I find in many cases it is all too often the key ingredient in some peoples buying decisions. I am glad I have found a better way.

[FOS]

hi bcassidy

You wrote "The only numbers that matter to me fall into two catagories, first does the stallion improve the mares he is breeding? and second what price does that improvement cost?"

Very interesting...and no nonsense !

Am I to assume that you exclude young stallions (from your breeding plans) that do not as yet have runners that you can evaluate?

Your opinions, insights...and info (and results) relating to your "system" are appreciated.

Best to you.

Respectfully

[bcassidy]

FOS--You are correct, I stay far away from stallions which haven't produced a racing crop because I can't evaluate them the way I can a stallion which has already produced foals which have raced. I have learned from my experiences that it is impossible to predict the stallions which will become producers from pedigree or conformation. It is much easier (and less expensive) for me to select stallions from my list of stallions which I have identified as proven producers and usually they come at very attractive stud fees. Of course, I can see how that might not work for the commercial breeder unless that breeder has the long term best interest of the mare in mind and not the first or second foal which will go to the sale. I recognize it is much easier to sell a good looking foal from a stallion which nobody can prove is not a producer than to sell a foal from a stallion which has a low stud fee, has no hype factor because he probably has not won a lot of money or won big races and is probably not even on the commercial market radar.
The only draw back to my system is I can't identify the high value stallions until they produce a racing crop and even then it usually only gives me one and sometimes two breeding seasons to get to these low profile stallions before their stud fees rise substantially but I will take a proven commodity to a guess any day of the week. I know this won't work for everybody but it certainly works for me. With the parameters I mentioned above I will put my research against anybody's in the industry. I have over a 7 year track record of identifying the winners and losers in the breeding shed and I am more than happy to share this data with anyone on this board for free.

[louis finochio]

To Brendan: I would rather pay an increase is stude fee from 5000 to 10,000 if the stallion was a quality stallion that is outproducing his mediocre mares.

I eliminate stallions that were 10,000 last season and are now 5,000.

Awesome Again average starts of his progeny is 9, I would not pay his elevated stud fee for those low lifetime average starts.

[bcassidy]

Louis, if only it were a 5k to 10k price increase, I wouldn't have a problem. Montbrook, Forest Wildcat, El Prado, Grand Slam, Distorted Humor, Mr Greely, and Elusive Quality are examples of Stallions whose stud fees have risen considerably higher than 5K. EQ went from 10K to 30K and then from 30K to 100K. Those are big jumps.
It will be interesting to see what happens with NA's stud fee but it won't be too long before he is in the 50k-75K range.
There are some stallions I like which do not move in such big jumps but they are in the regional markets. Stallions like Montbrook, Meadow Monster, West Acre, Eltish, Outflanker, etc. When a stallion in Ky hits---the stud fee increases are substantial. In Ky one example of a stallion whose stud fee has not moved up--- is Smoke Glacken--He is excellent for his stud fee. He is well worth 25k-30k and I might send one of my better mares to him next year if he stays where he is---great value. I also want to send two mares to Eltish and one to West Acre next year. Both of these stallions are in the high value quadrant in the 5k range. It is just wait and see now.