Pedigree Query

Fascinating!!

Seems to me he's proving the point that he's trying not to make. 9% stakes winners is far higher than most but the elite stallions. He's actually proved that conformation is just as, if not more, important than bloodlines.

Halo... are you looking at the dollars? End users paying an average of 138k are only getting back 58k. And that doesn't even include training expenses...

These horses are historically huge money pits... the question then becomes, are those horses purchased on the basis of pedigree more or less of a money pit?

At least they are getting back 58K, and they have a far better than average chance of a stakes winner, which is why they are paying what they are paying. A.P. Indy's average earner per starter this year is $44,000; what do you think end users are paying on average for those? And that doesnt even include training expenses...

Interesting but there is more to the Lucas approach on conformation. "Buy on conformation and hope it has the page to match". Back in the 70's and early 80's you could sell a three-legged horse if it had enough black type. People who couldn't tell the difference in a horse and a cow were experts when it came to a catalog page.

I did not see any stats on the earnings of the heavy catalog page yearlings. I'll bet when you consider all things you will find that they are just as much "money pits". I have always contended that catalog page begets page because page begets opportunity and premium care.

OK, the assumption is that conformation sold the horse. I don't see any mention of 'dismal failure' on the dam side. Nor do I see if the yearling is out of a mare who hasn't had anything old enough to go to the track. I think for the 'study' to be more accuarte we should see that both sides of the pedigree failed to support the high price.

Conformation is obviously important, because a horse that isn't built right is more likely to break down. But conformation alone can't tell you whether the animal's biochemistry is compatable with racing. I have seen some beautiful Thoroughbred show horses descending through unsuccessful racing lines. They make gorgeous show animals, many are competetive jumpers, but they simply do not have what it takes to make a racehorse. The page can only tell you that a horse comes from successful racing stock. It can't tell you whether that horse will be successful himself. For that, you have to look deeper into the pedigree. You have to take genetic recombination into account and that means you either have to know a little something about recombination, or be willing to pay someone else to know for you.
A pre-purchase pedigree analysis doesn't cost much, but it has saved some of my clients hundreds of thousands of dollars in wasted money. Money that would have been spent on "marketable" horses with great pages in the catalog, but without the pedigree patterns to make them a successful racer. Over and over again, I've pointed people to a less marketable horse (which they pay less for, invariably) and then the more expensive horses, mostly have failed to pay back even their purchase price for those who bought them, much less training fees, while the lesser horse goes out and does his job.
I put them all on my virtual stable when I can find out what they end up being named. Usually, if you look at progeny on this pedigree query, eventually their name will pop up as being out of that mare that year, by that stallion. It's easy to track them through the pedigree query and I love that part of this site.
With the prices of horses at the sale going up and so many of them being bred to break down, more buyers are getting savvy and getting analyses done by pedigree analysts, like myself, competent veterinarians they know they can trust (their own), and they're learning to check out the bloodstock agents they are dealing with to see who's getting commissions for horses that are sold through the sale.
And just to give you an idea of what can happen when someone knows what they're doing, breeding a little homebred here and there, you should check out the website for a horse here in Texas named Hi Teck Man.
He's a homebred earner of over $300,000. By a catalog page, you would never spot him, but if you scroll down on the site's mainpage, you can click on a link to look at the pedigree analysis his owner had done for the horse. You can see why he ran like he did in that analysis. Check it out.
www.hiteckman.com
I'm really proud of that analysis. I don't own the horse or have any monetary interest in him, but I like for people to see the analysis and then they understand how this horse could be produced and run like he did by a home based breeder in Texas. That little stud outran a lot of expensive sale babies!

I am bringing this up to the top again because I am curious as the subject states - which do your prefer if you have to choose?

Stallion (a) first crop of foals are 2yr.olds, he has 44% runners and 21% winners (from 68 foals), he's a Group 1 winner from a decent female family. However he has a slightly offset knee and he paddles. Have not been able to see any offspring.

Stallion (b) first crop of foals are 2yr.olds, he has 41% runners and 10% winners (from 51 foals), he's a G.2 winner from a very nice female family and he is correct and passes this on to his foals - from those I have seen.

Ironically both had sale averages around $25,000 give or take a couple hundred$