Which of these stallions ...?

[parsixfarms]

I'm in the process of finalizing breeding plans for the year. I own a mare (Wateree [Confide - The Manager]) that is currently in NY, and we will drop the resulting foal in NY. The mare won about $90,000 on the track (placed at CD and Kee at 2 and broke her maiden at Saratoga at 3 against NY-bred competition). She is a good sized mare who is generally correct. I am looking at the following three stallions, with the prices and terms relatively comparable: Belong to Me, Mutakkdim, and Northern Afleet. Any thoughts?

[habitat]

Parsix,

I lean towards Belong to Me based on what he has done with his Icecapade opportunities.

[parsixfarms]

At this time, I'm really struggling between Belong to Me and Northern Afleet. The primary factor in Belong to Me's favor is how well he has done with mares from the Icecapade line. The downside is that he has seemed to chill out considerably, as recognized by three years of dropping stud fees (from $30,000 to $12,500) and a low number of mares bred (62) in 2006, and that he does not seem to move up his mares (AEI of 1.66 v. CI of 1.90).

While Northern Afleet does not have much of a track record with the Icecapade line (he has produced one SP six-figure earner from a Phone Trick mare), he moves his mares up considerably (AEI of 1.82 v. CI of 1.42), and I just have a sense that with large Afleet Alex-aided books of mares (128 in 2004 and 159 in 2005) on the way at a higher fee than he commanded in Florida, he's going to get hot in the next year or so, just like the renaissance that Maria's Mon enjoyed this past year (with the post-Monarchos foals). And we've been offered very favorable terms to go to him. That's what I'm trying to weigh.

[Rokeby Forever]

Belong To Me started out like a house on fire with Jersey Girl. I think the stint in Australia did a lot of permanent damage to him here in the US. That happens to a lot of sires that go down there - not all, but a lot of them.

[parsixfarms]

I think you're right about Australia wearing him out. I saw him at Lane's End about three years ago, after he spent a few years as a shuttle stallion. The individual that showed us around that day made reference to the effect of the shuttling on him. That being said, he is still getting some nice runners, especially on grass here in the States.

[Maven]

Belong to Me has a good history with Icecapade like others have pointed out. So thats an added benefit.

But I wouldnt be so quick to dismiss Mutakddim. His first daughters are really starting to produce well and if you're planning on keeping a filly, she could be a genetic gold-mine for you. Add to the fact he can still get a good sales horse, especially out of fast mares, and you might be covering your bases quite well. He's more consistent for the fee than Belong to Me.

Northern Afleet is absolutely a solid stallion and you're reading the "bump" correctly. But a physical match is very important with him and I would high suggest you ask the farm how he would stack up with your mare physically.

He was quite the loss for Florida breeders though. Love him. And what a terrific, proven family behind him.

[parsixfarms]

Maven,

From those at the farm that I've spoken to, the advice on Northern Afleet is that he needs a mare with substance (and to avoid one who is long in the pasterns, as he is). I ruled out one of my mares to him on this account two years ago, but this mare seems to fit the bill.

[stlouiskid]

If you are breeding to race you can't go wrong with Northern Afleet. If you don't mind me asking what is the fee you are able to get on him? Good luck.

[Keith]

Other stallions to consider

Grand Reward by Storm Cat-Serena's Song by Rahy
5x5 Ballade through Devil's Bag and Glorious Song
5x5 Halo through Devil's Bag and Glorious Song
4x5x5 Northern Dancer through Nijinsky II, Storm Bird, and Northfields

Smoke Glacken by Two Punch-Majesty's Crown by Magestrial
4x5 Lady Dulcinea through Heavenly Cause and Quixotic Lady
4x5 Northern Dancer

Consolidator by Storm Cat-Good Example by Crystal Glitters
5x5 Fleeting Doll through Shake A Leg and Tales To Tell
4x5 Northern Dancer

Posse by Silver Deputy-Raska by Rahy
5x5 Halo through Devil's Bag and Glorious Song
5x5 Ballade through Devil's Bag and Glorious Song
5x5 Northern Dancer through Nijinsky II and Vice Regent
5x5 Raise a Native through Mr. Prospector and Shake a Leg


Keith