Sibling value/price and mares offspring value/price

[cedarbrook]

One of my mares, Distinct View, has a yearling half brother by Chapel Royal that just sold for $100,000. If I were to breed her to Chapel Royal next year, would I have any chance for a comercial foal? She is in foal this year, her first foal. She is due in Feb., so she could be bred early for an early foal the following year.

[tbrace]

I wouldn't breed any mare that does not have black type, or who is at least out of a mare that has black type.

You just can't sell the foals for what you have in them.

One exception might be to take the baby all the way to the 2 year old sales, but that is a risky proposition.

If you want to breed commercially, get one good stakes placed mare, and then breed to somebody like Chappel Royal.

[LB]

The Chapel Royals are selling particularly well this year because they're his first crop and the market loves a new horse. His second crop is already born and third crop in utero. So by the time your foal would sell as a yearling, Chapel Royal would not only not have the "new sire bump" he would have 4YOs running. If he's a success at that point (which is a gamble with any new stallion) you'll probably do fine. But if he has performed below expectations, you'll end up eating that stud fee.

[Sysonby]

I wouldn't breed any mare that does not have black type, or who is at least out of a mare that has black type.

You just can't sell the foals for what you have in them.

One exception might be to take the baby all the way to the 2 year old sales, but that is a risky proposition.

Yes and no. Generally, it used to be that you couldn't sell anything without blacktype but now the market has shifted to the physical.

Same sale, same day:

This yearling sold for $400,000

http://apps.keeneland.com/sales/sep06/pdfs/2363.pdf

This one sold for $11,000

http://apps.keeneland.com/sales/sep06/pdfs/2291.pdf

This one, a half brother to a SW, sold for $8000.

http://apps.keeneland.com/sales/sep06/pdfs/2368.pdf

Some black type under the second dam but does this really look like a session topper kind of page?

http://apps.keeneland.com/sales/sep06/pdfs/2173.pdf

Part of the reason for that is that all of these yearlings are potentially in the pipeline for the 2 year old sales and those buyers and sellers care less about pedigree and more about flash, beauty and speed. A wellbred horse without those attributes or perceived attributes doesn't get a look.

[Sysonby]

The Chapel Royals are selling particularly well this year because they're his first crop and the market loves a new horse. His second crop is already born and third crop in utero. So by the time your foal would sell as a yearling, Chapel Royal would not only not have the "new sire bump" he would have 4YOs running. If he's a success at that point (which is a gamble with any new stallion) you'll probably do fine. But if he has performed below expectations, you'll end up eating that stud fee.

This is good advice. Anyone contemplating a new sire getting freshman bump at the sales should also weigh what that sire potentially brings to the table with regards to pedigree, conformation and performance. No one can sell a crooked Chapel Royal even when he's hot. Try doing it after the sheen has worn off.

That said, I decided to go with a first year this year for what I hope were all the right reasons:

-I loved his foals.
-I'm breeding for a regional market and I don't think I'll get punished as badly if he's not an unqualified success.
-The price was right because the stallion manager refreshingly enough did not get greedy after the heady sales results.
-The stallion matched the mare both on paper and in the flesh.
-The stallion represented a pedigree I couldn't find back home.

Now, the jury is still out and I may yet regret the decision. But I think you really should run through a checklist like that before you go to any sire on the bubble.

[madelyn]

The Chapel Royal offspring, as noted above, have been selling very well. He is in his "honeymoon" period. Also, this mare is not her mother. On the other hand, her dam is only 11 and is still being bred, and the second dam also has yet-to-race offspring, so there is time for this mare's page to improve. Until then, however, in my book she would not be bred to a stallion standing for more than $5K.

[FOS]

hi cedarbrook...hi Sysonby...hi all

If I might throw my two-cents in...it would NOT surprise me if the overwhelming majority of the Chapel Royals find it difficult (if not impossible) to be much (if anything) more than sprinters. Not that that's all bad...but it is what it is.

It's my contention that Chapel Royal exposed serious distance limitations when he raced...and his physical look/conformation seems to be consistent with what he was. The fact that he's by Montbrook and out of a Cutlass mare that's out of a Never Bend daughter seems also to scream of sprint...sprint...sprint. Continuing the thought, I ask...why should I believe he'll get (as a sire) much (if anything) more than he was. Think about it...Chapel Royal won but 3 of 8 lifetime starts, and appeared to be a drag-racing-like machine going 5 or 6 furlongs...but at 6 furlongs and one foot he looked like he ran into the proverbial brick wall. That said, as fast as he might have been perceived (by some)...his times (and best Rag# 7) were not particularly impressive.

If you haven't already guessed, I have my doubts about Chapel Royal (as a sire). He would not be my poster boy for probable success as a sire of top-quality two-turn winners. That said, he'll likely have some early success. Why shouldn't he? ...after all he stands at Ashford...and he was likely bred to a HUGE, no a HUUUUUGE , book of mares.

Chapel Royal (and ALL other stallions/sires) aside...

...Sysonby wrote the following (a portion of which I bolded) "Generally, it used to be that you couldn't sell anything without blacktype but now the market has shifted to the physical." Arguably many (if not most) of the foals/yearlings etc that brought/bring but a fraction of their sires' advertised stud fees might support (to varying degrees of course) that (bolded) contention.

When it gets down to the real nitty-gritty, arguably profit or loss can often hinge upon the physical...the physical...the physical...conformation...conformation...conformation.

Best of luck cedarbrook.

Respectfully

[sittinchilly]

Chapel Royal was bred to 222 mares in 2005, with 197 reports received, and 175 live foals of 2006 for 79% live foals.

wow

[madelyn]

You might say the market is flooded with Chapel Royal's. I doubt the prices will hold next year.

[FOS]

hi sittinchilly...hi madelyn

Chapel Royal was bred to 222 mares in 2005, with 197 reports received, and 175 live foals of 2006 for 79% live foals.

wow

Why would you be shocked...after all he stands at Ashford .

You might say the market is flooded with Chapel Royal's.

No, YOU might say the market is flooded...I (and I expect MANY others) might have some other words.

I doubt the prices will hold next year.

madelyn...prices aside, doesn't it seem that we might be witnessing something that's possibly worthy the description Shameful or Obnoxious? Seriously.

Best.

Respectfully

[cedarbrook]

Thanks for the feedback. I just thought that Distinct has a better race record than her dam, she has good confirmationg and was doing well on the track until she sustained an injury to her knee. All this seems to go in her favor. She should be able to produce something that could run well. Who do you think a good comercial stallion may be for her?

[tbrace]

I wish you all the best, Cedar, but your last question presents the problem.

She really does call for a $5-6k breed fee, and commercial stallions in that range are hard to find.

For this or other mares, best chances in my meager view might be Slew City Slew, Pioneering, Tactical Cat, Roar, and a few new sires that might pop up next year.

[madelyn]

My number one pick for her would be Rocking Trick ... but his first yearlings won't be sold until October.

[kimberley mine]

You might have a look at the pedigrees of Macho Uno and Flashy Bull, then take a look at Woke Up Dreamin.