Pedigree Query

Any thoughts on inbreeding to Flower Bowl through her sons His Majesty and Graustark? I know it's been tried some with good success. I think it's the way im going to go next year with my His Majesty mare via Mizzen Mast.

What's your mare's name?

Statistically the results are somewhat disappointing and it's not really a great match. Out of over 500 mares with the cross, there were only two results that were noteworthy, namely the ill-fated Mozart (Danehill, Spectacular Bid), and Sir Beaufort (Pleasant Colony, Caro).

Go for it, the half-brothers by Ribot & Swaps do well together, tho they didn't at the farm.

When I checked the Goldmine for graded winners the results were interesting. When His Majesty appeared on the sire side, the VGS was was 1.09 or average basically. When it was reversed with Graustark on the sire side over His Majesty on the dam side, the score was 2 plus or twice the average. It would appear that if you have a His Majesty mare you would be encouraged to try the inbreeding.

Some of the successful Graustark over His Majesty horses would be: Hollywood Story, Parade Ground, Hero's Love and Parade Leader.

When you check for Flower Bowl inbreeding (Strawberry Road primarily) you also get Rustic Light, Royal Chariot and Sky Blue Pink. A Strawberry Road sire side stallion may also work.

Hi hpkingjr

Isn't G1 Goldmine a marvelous tool? I use it every day in my research.
For those of you who may be interested, Leo Tsatsaronis. the developer of G1 Goldmine, will be one of the speakers at the CTBA seminar at Harris Ranch in October.

Bill

My VERY young and just starting database of problems shows NO family 4d as a culprit, and barely any from these sires...so that's probably a plus, work in progress as it is.

Bill:

The G1Goldmine has so many applications it boggled my mind (I know Madelyn, it doesn't take much). It never ceases to amaze with information. It's cheap (that also appeals to me) and they have a free version that gives grade 2 and 3 winners. When you use the free version and check for the VGS it actually will show the number of Grade 1 winners but not their names. I would give anyone a tout to try it.

hpkingjr wrote:Bill:

The G1Goldmine has so many applications it boggled my mind (I know Madelyn, it doesn't take much). It never ceases to amaze with information. ...

What on earth?? I think anyone that could last all the way through law school AND vet school must actually have a long attention span!

There will be a period of time during which those who have Goldmine will have a significant advantage over those who don't. Eventually, everyone will. Any breeding or purchase of a horse without a Goldmine consult is ridiculous, stupid, irresponsible.... . Sooo many of the breedings have actually almost NO statistical chance of being successful.

I agree that Goldmine is a wonderful tool. However, caution should be applied.

Firstly Goldmine only deals with graded stakes winners. Although it can be helpful in setting pointers for regional interests breeding to race, it clearly has its limitations in that regard. A regional stallion with no graded stakes winners, may nevertheless be the right choice for a particular mare in a particular setting. Alternatively, one can take the patterns suggested by Goldmine and try to modify them or interpret them in terms of non-graded races.

Secondly one must be judicious in interpreting the results as the statistical samples generated in some cases are small enough to be disturbing.

Thirdly, Goldmine reaches its heights, in my opinion, when used with a view to active participation in terms of pattern recognition by the user. I don't think the designer of Goldmine would disagree with me on this point, as I have read some of his articles, and many suggest that the user be on the lookout for patterns that one can then test or establish using Goldmine.

There are many things I wish Goldmine could do but doesn't, however it's an evolving program and I hope for great things to come.

Nevertheless I concur that Goldmine is an excellent tool. BUT - One must never forget the old adage applied to any endeavor involving computers - garbage in - garbage out. I'm not talking about the database underlying Goldmine here which is good and always improving, I'm simply talking about judicious use by the employer of the tool, and for the purposes for which it was intended.

Geo:

Your points are well stated. It is my impression that the G1 Goldmine does not try to be all things to all situations. It fairly states that it applies to the highest level of racing, the graded races.

As an example, last year someone was breeding a mare that gave a 4x4 inbreeding to Vice Regent. The G1 Goldmine had zero horses with that inbreeding. It was Bill from Wash, I believe, who pointed out two or three stakes winners but not graded ones with Vice Regent inbreeding. Obviously those were very good horses, just not graded winners, and almost anyone would be happy to breed or own one.

I truly believe that as a pure tool, it shortens pedigree research so almost anyone can check out their pet theories and get answers quickly. I'm into instant gratification. I agree that the key word here is tool .

No one: database, nicking service, dosage, reines, center of distribution etc., etc., is the answer. For myself I love the G1 Goldmine as a super tool. If your goal is to breed a graded winner then try the Goldmine. If your goal is less than that I still believe you can extrapolate most of the information from the G1 Goldmine.

[quote="Maven"]Any thoughts on inbreeding to Flower Bowl through her sons His Majesty and Graustark? I know it's been tried some with good success. I think it's the way im going to go next year with my His Majesty mare via Mizzen Mast.[/quote]


Hi Maven! Here's a foal (My Man Murf, by Anziyan) out of one of my mares (Hilary Fr), though not a stakes horse at this juncture, has been off the board only once in 7 starts, running AOC in L.A. In this case, through the damside of sire and mare with His Majesty over Graustark. Line bred 4S x 6D to Flower Bowl.

Though I did not find it to be especially productive when checking the pedigree query data base, it seems beneficial if not overwhelming. The Danzig x Troy cross is very significant so, as you know, the whole pedigree must be considered in your evaluation.

I noted that one of Anziyan's stakes horses, Queen Razayana is also bred 4S x 6D to Flower Bowl, but also alot of inbreeding to Natalma so in both cases it could be a minor influence but the His Majesty x Graustark is nonetheless a presence.

Good luck!

What's the story behind Swaps vs Ribot as the sire of Graustark? Just caught a mention of this on he Reins website. Ribot is listed as the official sire in the database.

O.K. so My Man Murf (Anziyan o/o Hilary) is a stakes winner, now! He won the 1 & 1/16 mile Derby Trial S. at Fairplex on 07 Sep 07!